NBA DFS Breakdown (Saturday, Aug. 29): C.J. McCollum to the Rescue?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.

Saturday features a three-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Point Guard

Stud

Russell Westbrook is the ultimate X-factor on today’s slate. He will be playing just his first game of the playoffs, so he could be a bit limited after dealing with a strained quad. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and it will be tough to pay off his price tag if he only sees that much playing time.

That said, the Rockets may not have the luxury of easing Westbrook into the rotation. They’re playing a crucial Game 5, and history suggests that whoever wins this game will have a roughly 85% chance of winning the series. Westbrook has averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season – which is easily the top mark at the position – so he has big upside if the Rockets decide to unleash him. He also stands out as the best pure value at the position on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

Value

The Magic need a win to keep their slim hopes of advancing to the second round alive, so they could lean on their key players a bit more than usual in today’s contest. That includes Markelle Fultz, who is coming off a series-high 31.5 minutes in his last contest. He responded with 35.25 DraftKings points, which is not surprising given his average of 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season.

Fast Break

Chris Paul has one of the best matchups at the position given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.24 on FanDuel, and he also leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends. He’s averaging approximately 6.5 additional minutes per game during the postseason, and he’s scored at least 42.7 FanDuel points in three of his past four games.

Sticking with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is carrying an absolutely massive workload during the playoffs. He’s logged at least 43.9 minutes in each of his past two games, and he’s responded at least 44.0 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s currently projected for 42.3 minutes on today’s slate, and players with comparable minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.56 on DraftKings (per the Trends tool).

Shooting Guard

Stud

C.J. McCollum is going to be one of the most important players on today’s slate. The Blazers will be without Damian Lillard for the rest of the postseason, so McCollum is going to be asked to carry a massive workload in Game 5 vs. the Lakers. He’s currently projected for 40.0 minutes of playing time, and he’s 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with Lillard off the court this season.

That said, there is some risk with McCollum today. For starters, the Lakers have been outstanding defensively this series, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 104.75 is the lowest mark on the slate.

The Blazers are also 13-point underdogs, so this game has some blowout potential. McCollum has been dealing with an injury of his own, so they could potentially take it easy on him if this game gets out of hand early.

Value

Luguentz Dort provides a bunch of minutes at a really cheap price tag on FanDuel. He’s currently priced at just $3,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he’s played at least 35.2 minutes in each of his past two games. Unsurprisingly, he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in both of those outings.

Fast Break

James Harden could be a bit overlooked on today’s slate. That doesn’t happen very often, but the combination of Westbrook being back in the lineup and McCollum playing without Lillard could result in lower ownership than usual. That makes him very appealing for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially since he leads all players with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel. His ceiling is definitely a smidge lower while sharing the court with Westbrook, but Harden still has immense upside.

Dennis Schroder leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.71 on FanDuel, and he’s another member of the Thunder who has been playing more in the playoffs. He’s coming off 33.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he logged 45.5 FanDuel points in the game before that. That makes him a nice option at just $6,000.

Small Forward

Stud

The Lakers’ offense has struggled mightily in Orlando, but they’ve started to turn the corner in their series vs. the Blazers. Portland is abysmal defensively – they ranked 27th in defensive efficiency during the regular season – and the Lakers have been able to take advantage.

That starts with LeBron James, who is still arguably the best player in the league in his 17th season. He’s scored at least 53.2 FanDuel points in three of four games, and he needed to just 28.3 minutes to hit that threshold in his last outing.

Value

Terrence Ross has been asked to step up for the Magic with Aaron Gordon and Jonathan Isaac out of the lineup, and he’s done an admirable job. The Magic were the best defensive team in the league during the regular season, but Ross has still managed to post a positive Plus/Minus on DraftKings in three of his first four games.

His 31.2 minutes in his last game was his highest mark of the series, and he could be looking at even more minutes in an elimination game.

Fast Break

Carmelo Anthony is another member of the Blazers who should see a bump with Lillard out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.2% with Lillard and Zach Collins off the court, resulting in an average of 0.88 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently projected for 37.5 minutes in our NBA Models, which makes him a strong option at his price tag across the industry.

Danilo Gallinari is coming off a poor performance in his last game, which has caused his salary to drop all the way to $5,500 on FanDuel. That’s simply too cheap for Gallo, and it results in a Bargain Rating of 96%. He’s had a comparable salary in 24 previous outings this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.83 in those contests.

Power Forward

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and he has absolutely demolished the Magic during the postseason. He’s logged at least 59.0 DraftKings points in each of his first four contests, and he’s been ridiculously efficient over his past two. He’s shot over 74% from the field during those games, and the Magic simply have no answer for him with Gordon and Isaac shelved.

There are definitely some blowout concerns in this contest – the Bucks are favored by a slate-high 14 points – but Giannis is capable of doing a ton of damage in limited minutes.

Value

On the other side of this matchup, Gary Clark should draw another start for the Magic. He’s been decent when given the opportunity to play this season, averaging 0.75 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his first four games vs. the Magic. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s one of the safer options at the position.

Fast Break

Robert Covington stands out on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 88%, which is the top mark at the PF position. Covington has struggled during the playoffs, averaging just 22.03 FanDuel points over his past four games, but that has caused his salary to drop by nearly $2,000. He still a very important part of the Rockets’ rotation, so he’s a strong buy-low candidate on today’s slate.

Anthony Davis has absolutely torched the Blazers during the postseason. He played just 17.6 minutes before leaving his last contest, but that didn’t stop him from scoring 40.5 FanDuel points. That is elite per-minute production. He’s expected to be back in the lineup today, and I doubt the Blazers have found a way to stop him over the past few days.

Center

Stud

Nikola Vucevic has been the lone bright spot for the Magic in this series. He’s averaged 29.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game while shooting 54.7% from the field and 44.1% from 3-point range. That has translated to an average of 48.63 FanDuel points per game, and he’s scored over 55 FanDuel points in two of those outings.

He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and the Magic will need a big game from him if they have any chance of pulling off an upset.

Value

Hassan Whiteside has started each of the past two games for the Blazers, and it seems unlikely that will change with Lillard out of the lineup. He hasn’t exactly crushed in those contest, but Whiteside remains one of the best producers in fantasy on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s capable of crushing his current price tag across the industry.

Fast Break

Steven Adams has one of the best possible matchups vs. the Rockets, who have been crushed on the glass since trading away Clint Capela. That said, he didn’t see as many minutes as expected in his last game. The Thunder opted to go with a smaller lineup with Gallinari at center, which ultimately capped Adams’ production. That makes him somewhat risky on today’s slate, but he has solid upside for his price tag as well.

Brook Lopez is one of the few centers who stands out as a better value on DraftKings than FanDuel today. He owns a Bargain Rating of 83%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his past three games.