We’re starting the week off right with a big, 11-game NBA slate! Let’s dive into some of the top plays using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Point Guard
Stud
Trae Young has been on fire as of late, and he’s fresh off his best game of the season. In Sunday’s win over the Bucks, Young went nuclear for 42 points, 10 dimes, eight rebounds, and a steal.
Over his last five, Young has averaged a whopping 31.6 points, 9.4 dimes, and 3.6 boards. He’s coughed the ball up 5.2 times per game in that span, but his massive numbers elsewhere more than make up for the high turnovers. Young checks in at just $9,500 on DraftKings and $9,600 on FanDuel as a cheaper option than guys like Luka Doncic, Russell Westbrook, and Ja Morant.
Young’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on DraftKings and 17-20% on FanDuel, giving him a 99% and 86% Leverage Rating on those sites respectively. He’s in a great pace-up spot against the Magic too (4.1 Pace Differential). I’ll be sure to get plenty of exposure to Young tonight given his price, ceiling, and current hot streak.
Value
Kemba Walker ($5,400 DraftKings, $5,000 FanDuel) is hot off his highest-scoring game of the season (26 points) against his former team, the Hornets. I highlighted him Friday as a great value, so I’m going back to the well, as his price remains quite friendly. Walker is one of our model’s favorite values at PG tonight.
Fast Break
Lonzo Ball ($6,500 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) is one of our model’s favorite plays tonight thanks to a fantastic matchup with his former team. Ball isn’t so appealing on DraftKings due to the price, but at $800 cheaper on FanDuel (94% Bargain Rating), he’s a guy I’ll certainly have some exposure to on this slate.
Ball has taken a backseat to DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine throughout the season, but he’s displayed his upside with two games of at least 40 fantasy points. Tonight, he’s got a 46.58 ceiling, a 3.28 Opponent Plus/Minus, and a tremendous 4.4 Pace Differential. You’ve got to love all of the positives working for Ball on this crowded slate.
Russell Westbrook has a slightly higher ceiling than Luka Doncic tonight, but the latter is who we’re going to highlight here. Brodie is coming off back-to-back duds, while Luka just posted his best two-game stretch of the season. We’re going to ride the hot hand for tonight’s slate. Over his last two, Luka averaged 26.0 points, 12.5 assists, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.5 combined blocks/steals. He’s worth paying up for tonight.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Zach LaVine ($8,100 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel) remains a stalwart in the Stud section every time he’s playing. On the season, he’s failed to score at least 22 points only once, and his price has remained affordable in the low $8,000 range.
Tonight, he’ll get the benefit of facing a Lakers team ranked third in pace in a matchup with a friendly 218.5 over/under. Our models give LaVine a 62.41-point ceiling on DraftKings and a 59.49-point ceiling on FanDuel.
Value
Coby White ($6,200 DraftKings, $4,100 FanDuel) isn’t a guy I’ll be playing on DraftKings, as his price is over $6K for his season debut. On FanDuel, however, I’ll be sure to take a shot on him in tournaments. White is a guy who can rack up points in a hurry, and though Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso have played well in their roles, they’re not microwave scorers like White.
Our model projects White for 30.85 minutes tonight, and that kind of playing time should help him pay off value on Fanduel. White has a ceiling of over 40 fantasy points, gets a nice Pace Differential of 4.4, and the Lakers/Bulls game has a 218.5 over/under – third-highest on the slate.
Fast Break
C.J. McCollum ($7,700 both sites) will once again be the leader of the backcourt with Damian Lillard (abdomen) out for a second straight contest. In Sunday’s blowout loss to the Nuggets, McCollum posted 21 points, two rebounds, two assists, and two steals with Lillard out of the lineup. Expect a better showing tonight against Toronto in a game where the Blazers are 1.5-point favorites.
Small Forward
Stud
Anthony Edwards ($7,900 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel) was one of my building blocks for Friday’s slate, and he promptly posted his worst game of the season. He rebounded the next day with a 21/9/3 line, so we’ll chalk it up to an off-night.
Edwards remains a bona fide stud on any given slate due to his elite scoring prowess and a sky-high ceiling. Tonight’s matchup with the Suns boasts the highest over/under on the slate at 221.0, meaning there should be plenty of offensive opportunities available for the second-year man.
Value
Duncan Robinson ($4,700 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel) has been a SF value in each of my last two Breakdown articles, so why not make it a three-peat?
Over his last three contests, D-Rob has torched opponents with 13.3 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 combined blocks/steals. Jimmy Butler (ankle) remains questionable tonight, so if he can’t go or is limited, Robinson’s value would get an even bigger boost.
Fast Break
As mentioned above, make sure to keep an eye on Jimmy Butler’s status ahead of tip-off. If he’s ruled out, you can continue to rely on Tyler Herro ($6,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel) and the aforementioned Robinson confidently. Over his last three, Herro has averaged 25.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. Because Herro’s value lies primarily in scoring, I prefer Robinson given the salary discrepancies.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis rolled the Spurs on Sunday with a 34/15/6/2/1 line, and he’ll look to keep that momentum going in a favorable matchup with the Bulls tonight.
Davis’ injury-riddled 2020-21 season is clearly in the rearview, as he’s averaging 24.5 points, 11.3 boards, 3.0 dimes, and 3.5 combined blocks/steals this season. He’s been especially productive with LeBron James (abdomen) out, posting two games with at least 32 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, and three combined blocks/steals over his last four contests.
Continue to roll with him tonight against the Nikola Vucevic-less Bulls frontcourt.
Value
Frank Kaminsky ($5,600 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel) has been huge as of late. His massive 31-point performance against the Blazers last Wednesday is still fresh in fantasy managers’ minds.
With Deandre Ayton (leg) still an unknown, we can go back to Kaminsky tonight as a surprisingly low-owned (5-8% DraftKings, 2-4% FanDuel) option at a totally reasonable price.
Over his last five games, Frank the Tank has posted 14.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.8 combined blocks/steals across 26.6 minutes per contest. He faces the T-Wolves in a game with a slate-high 221.0 over/under.
Fast Break
Evan Mobley ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel) has made an incredibly strong case for Rookie of the Year already thanks to his elite play on both ends of the court, particularly on defense. He’s been even more outstanding over his last four contests.
In that span, Mobley has averaged a stellar 20.0 points, 8.0 boards, 2.3 dimes, and 3.3 combined blocks/steals. He’s still priced far too low on both sites and should get consideration in cash games on every single slate.
Center
Stud
Nikola Jokic, the reigning MVP, is an obvious stud on any given slate, and that’s where he lands tonight. The big man has averaged 1.84 Fantasy Points/Minute – easily the highest of any center on the slate.
He gets a pace-up spot against the Mavericks, a 2.91 Opponent Plus/Minus, and is the only player with at least a 70-point ceiling on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In two games since serving his one-game suspension for shoving Markieff Morris, Jokic has averaged 25.0 points, 14.0 rebounds, and 9.5 assists.
Value
Isaiah Stewart ($5,000 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel) has been a major disappointment to fantasy managers and Pistons fans alike this season. However, hot off his best scoring performance of the season (and tied for best of his career), with no Kelly Olynyk (MCL) in the lineup, and facing the Kings, Stew should be in plenty of lineups as a strong value.
Sacramento has yielded a ton of production to opposing centers (seriously, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl pulled down 14 boards against them Friday), and Stewart is next in line. He gets a massive 5.15 Opponent Plus/Minus and a 2.9 Pace Differential and could well be a slate-breaker tonight.
Fast Break
Daniel Gafford ($4,200 DraftKings, $4,600 FanDuel) is one of our model’s favorite values at center tonight. He sports a 40-point ceiling and at least 5.9 Points/Salary on each site plus a 3.32 Opponent Plus/Minus. Gafford is typically a high Points/Minute producer, though his usage has trended down in each of his last three contests. On the plus side, he’s logged at least 21 minutes in four straight, giving him a more stable floor than he had at the end of last season with the Wizards.
Mitchell Robinson ($4,000 DraftKings, $4,900 FanDuel) has failed to live up to the “Blockinson” moniker he earned over his first two seasons in the league, and his play to this point in the season has been rather disappointing. His price is justifiably low, but considering he’s averaged 7.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.5 swats over his last two, he’s worth a flier in tournaments.
