NBA DFS Picks Christmas Breakdown: Which Studs Stand Out on Loaded Slate?

Happy Holidays! Christmas Day brings a five-game NBA DFS slate starting at 12 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

As usual, the Christmas Day slate is loaded with most of the top superstars in basketball. We’re going to be missing a few studs due to injury – Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, and possibly Devin Booker – but there are still plenty of high-end options to choose from.

At point guard, that starts with Luka Doncic. The Mavericks’ superstar has taken another step forward in his age-23 season. He’s averaging a career-best 32.8 points per game to go along with averages of 8.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds. Add it all up, and Doncic has averaged 60.38 DraftKings points per game and 1.70 DraftKings points per minute. He also possesses one of the highest ceilings in basketball, evidenced by his 82.0 DraftKings points Friday vs. the Rockets.

Doncic also draws one of the best matchups of the day. The Lakers have played at a top-10 pace this season, and they figure to take a step back defensively with Davis out of the lineup. They haven’t been particularly impressive in that department to begin with, ranking just 18th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks’ implied team total of 119.25 is the top mark on the slate.

---

Value

Malcolm Brogdon was limited to just 17 minutes in the Celtics’ last game, which was a comfortable win over the Timberwolves. He should see a few additional minutes vs. the Bucks on Christmas, and he stands out as a solid value at $5,300 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his current price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. Prior to his last outing, Brogdon had scored at least 26.0 DraftKings points in seven of his previous eight games.

---

Fast Break

Depending on the Suns’ injury report, Chris Paul could become the chalk at point guard. They’ve been without Devin Booker and Cameron Payne recently, and if both players are out again, Paul is going to have to do some heavy lifting vs. the Nuggets. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.6% and his assist rate by +2.7% with both players off the floor, giving him more upside than usual. The total on Suns-Nuggets also sits at 230.5, which is the top mark on the slate.

Jalen Brunson stands out as one of the better per-dollar options at the position. The matchup between the 76ers and Knicks isn’t particularly appealing, but Brunson is simply underpriced across the industry. He’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 38.1 minutes in back-to-back games.

Russell Westbrook owns a Bargain Rating of 93% on DraftKings, and he continues to produce at a high level for fantasy purposes. He’s averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s increased his usage rate by +2.9% with Davis off the floor this season. He has at least 53.25 DraftKings points in his past three games with at least 29.8 minutes, so he has plenty of upside if he hits his minutes ceiling.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The big question with the Warriors is can they even keep games competitive without Curry? They haven’t done a good job of that recently, losing back-to-back games against the Knicks and Nets by at least 30 points. The good news is that both of those games have come on the road, while their Christmas Day game will be in San Francisco. The Warriors have been significantly better at home this season, and they’re just 4.5-point underdogs against the Grizzlies.

As long as they can prevent this game from turning into a blowout, Jordan Poole should be able to return value. He has been a usage monster over the past three games, posting a usage rate of at least 40.4% in each of them. He’s played reduced minutes in their past two contests, but he scored 55.75 DraftKings points the last time he saw a full workload.

This game also figures to be one of the fastest of the day. Both of these teams rank in the top six in pace, with Golden State ranking first in that department. That gives this game plenty of fantasy potential.

---

Value

Finding value on this slate is going to be crucial with the number of high-priced studs we want to fit in our lineups. That makes Patrick Beverley a strong option at just $3,700 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Beverley has provided outstanding value for fantasy players of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games, including at least 26.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s played 29.8 and 37.3 minutes in those contests, and Beverley has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.21 in games with a comparable salary and at least 25 minutes of playing time (per the Trends tool).

---

Fast Break

What does James Harden have in mind for an encore following a massive performance on Friday? He racked up a triple-double with 20 points, 21 assists, and 11 rebounds, resulting in 71.75 DraftKings points. Harden has also historically loved playing at Madison Square Garden, posting an average Plus/Minus of +10.53 in his past seven occurrences. That includes 80.0 DraftKings points in his only game at MSG as a member of the 76ers.

Jamal Murray has been an excellent value on FanDuel recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.84 over his past 10 games. However, his price tag has actually decreased over that time frame. He erupted for 55.6 FanDuel points in his last outing, so he has some appeal at $7,000.

Jaylen Brown continues to be underpriced on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.23 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 52.9 FanDuel points in three of his past five outings.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James is already the NBA’s all-time leading scorer on Christmas Day, and he’ll have the opportunity to increase his lead on Sunday. He’s racked up 422 points across 16 Christmas Day games, officially surpassing the great Kobe Bryant in 2021. The closest active player is Kevin Durant at 299 points, and the Nets are not in action this year.

James also figures to be very active with Davis out of the lineup. He’s scored at least 51.0 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he’s averaged 55.69 DraftKings points in four full games without Davis this season.

James has gotten a bit more expensive on FanDuel, but his $10,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%. That makes him the clear choice from a pure value perspective in the top tier. No other player priced above $8,100 has a Bargain Rating of greater than 34% on DraftKings.

---

Value

Jonathan Kuminga has had an interesting sophomore year. He hasn’t been nearly as productive on a per-minute basis as he was as a rookie, but he has started to see an uptick in minutes. That makes sense with Curry and Andrew Wiggins out of the lineup, and Kuminga has racked up at least 21.4 minutes in eight of his past nine games. His fantasy production is also trending up, as he’s increased his production to 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

Kuminga is best used on FanDuel, where his $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

---

Fast Break

Donte DiVincenzo is another option for the Warriors on FanDuel. His $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and DiVincenzo has scored at least 30.1 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. The lone exception was his last outing, so this could be a nice opportunity to buy low on him.

The Mavericks have been asking a bit more of Tim Hardaway Jr. given their current injury situation. Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, and Josh Green of late, and Hardaway has racked up at least 32.4 minutes in his past three contests. He’s scored at least 25.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he remains reasonably priced across the industry.

Quentin Grimes is another potential source of value at the position. He’s not the greatest per-minute producer, averaging just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he makes up for it with sheer volume. He routinely plays more than 30 minutes, including 35.5 minutes in his last outing. That’s a ton of playing time for someone who costs less than $5k on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

There are plenty of different directions to go in at power forward, including paying all the way up for Giannis Antetokounmpo. He hasn’t been a particularly strong fantasy asset of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of -0.73 over the past month on FanDuel, but his ceiling remains as high as anyone in basketball. He racked up 71.8 FanDuel points two games ago vs. the Cavaliers, which is basically the toughest matchup in fantasy. They rank last in pace and first in defensive efficiency, so Giannis is capable of going off against anyone.

Still, it’s hard to get too excited about using him given his recent production. If you are going to play him, you’re best off doing so on FanDuel, where his $12,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He also leads the position with nine Pro Trends, and his ownership could check in a bit lower than some of the other studs on the slate.

---

Value

Draymond Green is a bit more expensive than the typical value option, but he stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position on DraftKings. He’s played reduced minutes in back-to-back blowouts, but he’s capable of contributing in every category across the board. His fantasy production is down to 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he scored 36.25 DraftKings points the last time the Warriors played a competitive contest. Given the expected game environment vs. the Grizzlies, there’s plenty of merit with Green at $5,800.

---

Fast Break

On the other side of that matchup, per-minute production has not been an issue for Jaren Jackson Jr. He’s racked up 1.36 DraftKings points per minute since joining the Grizzlies’ lineup in November, and he has displayed an outstanding ceiling for his price tag. He’s still playing limited minutes, but he can do a lot of damage with around 30 minutes vs. the Warriors.

The status of Robert Williams will be massive for this slate. He missed the Celtics’ last game due to a non-COVID illness, and if he’s unable to return to the lineup, Al Horford would become a virtual must-play. He dominated with Time Lord out of the lineup on Friday, racking up 47.75 DraftKings points over 36.3 minutes. Horford also had plenty of success against the Bucks last season, averaging 32.98 DraftKings points across 10 games, so it’s a matchup he can find some success in.

Like Brown, Jayson Tatum is underpriced on FanDuel, where his $10,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s cooled off after a torrid start to the year, but he’s still racked up at least 60.0 FanDuel points in two of his past four games. His ceiling isn’t that much lower than Antetokounmpo’s, but he’s available at a pretty solid discount.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Is there anything that Nikola Jokic can’t do at this point? It wouldn’t shock me if after dominating all night on the floor, he sweeps up the arena, does the team’s laundry, and flies the plane home. That’s how good he has been recently. It’s gotten to the point where back-to-back games of 60.0 and 55.75 DraftKings points actually feel slightly disappointing. Prior to those contests, he had scored at least 80.5 DraftKings points in three of four games. Overall, he’s averaged 1.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark on the slate by a solid margin.

The Nuggets also stand out from a Vegas perspective, with their 117.5-point implied team total ranking second on the slate. Jokic struggled against the Suns last year, finishing with 50.75 and 47.0 DraftKings points in two matchups, but he dominated in this spot in previous years. He averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.35 on DraftKings in 13 matchups from 2018-19 through 2020-21, so there’s no reason he can’t succeed in this spot.

---

Value

The biggest factor working against Jokic is Thomas Bryant. On a slate with an unlimited amount of superstars, the value plays are going to dictate where you should spend up. Bryant is undoubtedly the best value play on this slate.

His price tag has increased following the injury to Davis, but he’s still not nearly as expensive as he should be. He’s averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 33.5 minutes in his last outing. He was slightly disappointing in that outing, but he had scored at least 33.0 DraftKings points in three of his previous four games.

You can definitely play Bryant alongside Jokic on DraftKings, but you’re going to have to choose between the two on FanDuel. I give Bryant a clear edge.

---

Fast Break

There’s definitely some foul-out potential for Mitchell Robinson against Joel Embiid, but he’s simply too cheap at $5,200 on DraftKings. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute, and he should approach 30 minutes if he can avoid foul trouble.

Speaking of Embiid, he’s arguably a strong value than Jokic on FanDuel. He’s a bit cheaper, and while he may not post the same eye-popping stat lines on a routine basis, he still has an elite ceiling. He’s gone for at least 62.0 FanDuel points in four of his past seven games.