NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wendesday, Apr. 19): Massive Injuries Impacting Slate

Wednesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The big news heading into this contest involves the injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo. He exited Game 1 with a back injury and is currently listed as doubtful. Playoff reports in the postseason can be meaningless – we’ve already seen Josh Hart go from doubtful to in – but I’m proceeding as though he won’t be in the lineup. The Bucks are a team that has always prioritized long-term health, so if anyone is going to be cautious with a superstar during the playoffs, it’s them.

If Antetokounmpo is ruled out, Jrue Holiday is going to have to help pick up the slack. He’s seen a team-high +5.7% usage bump with Giannis off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. In 11 full games without Giannis, he’s averaged 47.2 DraftKings points across 34.3 minutes. Holiday has scored at least 52.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, and if Giannis is sidelined on Wednesday, he could easily make it four in a row.

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Value

Jevon Carter would be an excellent value target if Antetokounmpo is unable to play. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time in games without Giannis this season, averaging 24.9 minutes per game, and Carter has averaged 22.5 DraftKings points per game in those contests. Carter has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s capable of paying off his minimal price tag with a slightly larger workload than usual.

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Fast Break

Kyle Lowry is questionable for the Heat, but Gabe Vincent should see a sizable role regardless of his status. He played 33.4 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, and he’s projected for another 34 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a lot of playing time for someone priced at just $4,200, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.64 (per the Trends tool).

Mike Conley is another potential value option. He’s particularly underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards and the Timberwolves are coming off a dreadful performance in Game 1. They struggled to just 80 points vs. the Nuggets, and Edwards was limited to just 34.0 DraftKings points in 27.7 minutes.

That said, there were some positives to take away. Edwards posted a 32.6% usage rate in that contest, which represented a slight increase from his 29.9% mark during the regular season. Edwards should see closer to 38 minutes if Wednesday’s game is more competitive, and he’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Ultimately, he’s underpriced at $7,800, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%. His 11 Pro Trends also rank first at the shooting guard position.

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Value

D’Angelo Russell has dual PG/SG eligibility on DraftKings, where he’s underpriced at $5,800. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he was excellent in Game 1. He finished with 37.0 DraftKings points in 35.8 minutes, and that kind of production seems repeatable. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and while his production was down from his time with the Timberwolves, he’s capable of paying off this reduced price tag.

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Fast Break

While Russell’s production is down over the past month, Austin Reaves’ production is up. He’s increased his output to 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over that time frame, and he racked up 38.25 DraftKings points across 30.6 minutes in Game 1. While Russell is a better pure value on DraftKings, Reaves is the preferred Lakers’ target on FanDuel.

The Grizzlies are another team with a massive injury to monitor. Ja Morant is officially questionable, and Desmond Bane would be the biggest beneficiary is ultimately ruled out. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.8% with Morant off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.19 FanDuel points per minute. Bane leads all shooting guards with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Khris Middleton is the other member of the Bucks’ “big three,” and he’ll also need to help pick up the slack if Giannis is sidelined. Like Holiday, he’s also seen a sizable usage bump with Giannis off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He posted a 37.5% usage rate with Giannis missing most of Game 1, and he responded with 33 points and 48.75 DraftKings points. The Bucks are a tough matchup, but Middleton is capable of scoring against anyone.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, the Heat are also dealing with a significant injury. Tyler Herro suffered a broken hand during Game 1, which is expected to sideline him for four-to-six weeks. Unless the Heat can make a deep run, he’s almost certainly done for the remainder of the postseason.

That gives them a pair of interesting value options in Max Strus and Caleb Martin. Both players stand out as outstanding plays on FanDuel, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 95%. Strus is projected for more playing time and was red-hot in their play-in tournament win over the Bulls, but Martin has been a slightly better per-minute producer over the course of the year. He gets a slight edge over Strus in terms of projected Plus/Minus, but both players are useable.

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Fast Break

Luke Kennard has averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.60 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He failed to return value in his last contest, but Kennard shot a blistering 49.4% from 3-point range this season. He’s averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of doing damage quickly if he gets hot from the perimeter.

Kyle Anderson is another player who has been a consistent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.19 over his past 10 games. He failed to return value in his last contest, but so did basically everyone on the Timberwolves. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has a good shot to pay off his salary if Wednesday’s game is more competitive.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

With Herro out of the picture, Jimmy Butler is going to have to take on a larger role than usual. He’s already been playing some fantastic basketball of late, averaging 1.27 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s increased his usage rate (+1.3%) and assist rate (+2.8%) with Herro off the floor this season. Butler was dominant without Herro in Game 1, finishing with 63.75 DraftKings points thanks to 35 points, 11 assists, and five rebounds. He played just under 43 minutes in that contest, and he has a track record of elevating his play during the postseason. You could make a strong case that Butler is the top overall play on the slate.

Butler also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

Don’t forget about the Mayor of Milwaukee. Bobby Portis has been an elite role player for the Bucks for years, excelling whether he comes off the bench or moves into the starting lineup. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season, and that figure increases to 1.27 with Antetokounmpo off the floor.

Portis is also cheaper than usual at $5,700. He was priced as high as $6,900 towards the end of the regular season, and Portis has averaged 33.57 DKFP in 20 games with a comparable salary.

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Fast Break

The Nuggets aren’t dealing with any key injuries, so they could be a bit undervalued on this slate. They lead all teams with a 115.25-point implied team total, and Aaron Gordon stands out as a nice target on FanDuel. His $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.

Jaren Jackson Jr. can definitely be added to the stud conversation on FanDuel, especially if Morant is ruled out. He’s seen a team-high +4.9% usage bump with Ja off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.44 FanDuel points per minute. He’s massively underpriced on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo is an excellent fantasy center, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, but that figure has dipped to just 1.03 over the past month. That’s caused his salary to dip to just $7,400 for Game 2 vs. the Bucks. He racked up 45.25 DraftKings points at $7,700 in Game 1, so there’s no reason his price should’ve gotten lower.

Like Butler, Adebayo should also see a boost in value with Herro sidelined. He’s increased his production to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with Herro off the floor this season, and he could approach 40 minutes in this contest.

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Value

Brook Lopez is the final stop on our tour of the Bucks. While his defensive play got most of the attention this season, Lopez remains a very capable producer on the offensive end. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that figure increased to 1.11 in games without Giannis.

Loading up on a game 219.0-point total may not feel like the best idea, but the injuries to Antetokounmpo and Herro make it the clear top target for the day. Seven of the top nine values in my projections come from this contest, so stacking it is a viable strategy. Most of these players will garner heavy ownership, but there’s a reason for it.

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Fast Break

Kevin Love has some appeal as a punt play on Wednesday. He played more than 22.5 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Bucks, and he responded with 31.5 DraftKings points. Love’s per-minute production has been down since joining Miami, but he’s still the type of player who can average well over a fantasy point per minute.

Karl-Anthony Towns’ price tag continues to plummet. He’s down to just $7,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a 99% Bargain Rating. He had scored at least 46.5 DraftKings points in six straight games prior to Sunday’s clunker, including at least 52.75 DraftKings points in both play-in contests.