Wednesday features a 12-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Tonight’s matchup between the Hornets and Spurs is going to be chock full of fantasy goodness. Both teams are dealing with some major absences. The Hornets are currently without LaMelo Ball, while the Spurs traded away Dejounte Murray in the offseason. That leaves both squads with plenty of additional usage compared to last season.
Terry Rozier figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries for the Hornets. He increased his usage rate by +2.0% with Ball off the court last season, and he increased his assist rate by +7.8%. He should get to play more traditional point guard in this matchup vs. the Spurs, giving him far more fantasy upside than usual. Ultimately, he averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with Ball off the floor last year, and he could play upwards of 35 minutes in this matchup.
Value
Tre Jones is entering this third year as a pro, and he’s had a pretty quiet start to his career. He averaged just 16.6 minutes per game last season, but he did average a respectable 0.91 DraftKings points per minute.
However, he’s poised for a massive leap this season. He’ll get the opportunity to serve as the team’s starting point guard, and he thrived when given that opportunity last year. In eight games without Murray and Derrick White, Jones averaged 34.47 DraftKings points over 33.4 minutes per game. If he can duplicate those results this season, he’s someone who deserved to be priced in the $6,500 range. That makes him one of the best values of the day at just $4,200.
Fast Break
Josh Giddey stands out as an elite value on FanDuel. He leads the position with 10 Pro Trends, and his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Giddey’s rookie season was ultimately cut short due to injuries, but he averaged an excellent 1.02 FanDuel points per minute when on the floor. He’s currently projected for nearly 35.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s useable at both guard positions.
Luka Doncic has been a phenomenal player basically since he stepped onto an NBA floor, but this feels like it could be his best year. The team lost Jalen Brunson during the offseason, so Doncic figures to have the ball in his hands even more often. That’s a scary proposition. He already averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute last year, so any increase in productivity would put him into Giannis Antetokounmpo/Nikola Jokic territory. Doncic is also underpriced on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 88%.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Tyrese Haliburton is a phenomenal young point guard, and he really got to spread his wings once he was traded to the Pacers. He no longer had to share the ball with De’Aaron Fox, and he responded with averages of 17.5 points, 9.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds per game. Altogether, he averaged more than 41.5 DraftKings points in 26 outings.
With Malcolm Brogdon now in Boston, the coast is clear for Haliburton to run the show full-time in Indy. He draws a solid first matchup of the season with the Wizards, who ranked just 25th in defensive efficiency last year.
He’s another player who stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Value
Jalen Green is entering his second professional season, and he showed massive progression down the stretch as a rookie. Before the All-Star break, he shot just 38.7% from the field and 31.1% from 3-point range, which limited him to just 14.6 points per game. After the All-Star break, he shot 47.6% from the field and 38.7% from 3-point range, and he increased his scoring production to 22.1 points per game.
With that in mind, Green is a massive breakout candidate in his second season. The fact that Christian Wood is now in Dallas should only help, since Green is now the unquestioned top option in the Rockets’ offense. An Anthony Edwards-like season is not out of the question.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies have a couple of appealing SG options on this slate. They’re currently down Dillon Brooks, Ziaire Williams, and Jaren Jackson Jr., while De’Anthony Melton is no longer in town. That opens up plenty of minutes for Desmond Bane and John Konchar. Bane is the household name, and he’s the more expensive option. However, he averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models. Konchar is a bit more of an unknown, but he’s priced at the minimum at just $3,500 on FanDuel. He’s projected for just over 28 minutes, and min-priced players have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.80 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).
The biggest piece of injury news for opening night is that Zach LaVine has been ruled out for injury management. You read that correctly. With LaVine joining Lonzo Ball on the sidelines, Ayo Dosunmu should carry a large role as the team’s starting point guard. In 12 games without both players last year, Dosunmu averaged 38 minutes and 28.73 FanDuel points per game. You’ll gladly take that at his $4,100 salary.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
With LaVine sidelined, DeMar DeRozan enters stud territory at small forward. He’s coming off a phenomenal season where he averaged a career-best 27.9 points per game, and he’s not the same one-dimensional scorer that he was with the Raptors. He averaged 5.2 boards and 4.9 assists per game last season, so he provides some value in the peripherals as well.
DeRozan was at his best in games without LaVine and Ball last season. He increased his usage rate to a team-high 37.1%, and he averaged 38.3 minutes per game. Unsurprisingly, he responded with an average of 49.66 DraftKings points per game. The Bulls start the year with a brutal matchup vs. the Heat, but DeRozan has plenty of appeal given the team’s injury situation.
Value
Devin Vassell is another player who should take a step forward for the new-look Spurs this season. He had just an 18.8% usage rate last year, but that figure was up to 27.8% during the preseason. He averaged 16.5 points on 13.8 field goal attempts in those contests, and he did it in just 23.8 minutes per game.
Vassell may not be quite as aggressive during the regular season, but he still has a chance to post career-best numbers across the board. He’s significantly underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Fast Break
On FanDuel, Cameron Johnson stands out as the preferred value option. The Suns are going to be without Jae Crowder on opening night, so Johnson should draw the start at power forward. He saw a nice spike in value in games without Crowder last year, averaging 33.0 minutes and 26.6 FanDuel points per game. He’s eligible at both forward spots, and his $4,300 salary results in a 92% Bargain Rating.
Kelly Oubre is another player I’m looking to target on the Hornets on Wednesday. In addition to being down LaMelo, the team will also be without Miles Bridges. They ranked first and fourth in usage among the Hornets regulars last season, so there are plenty of additional shot attempts available vs. the Spurs. Oubre is definitely not shy about getting shots up when he’s on the floor, so expect him to be active on Wednesday.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Tonight’s slate seems perfect for a balanced roster, with plenty of players in the $5-$7k range standing out as elite values. However, that still gives you room for a stud, and Kevin Durant is worth consideration.
For starters, the forward position is significantly weaker than guard. It falls off pretty quickly after Durant, with only five other players priced above $7,900 on DraftKings. Most of those other options have at least one major question mark – with the exception DeRozan – so locking in the safety of Durant makes a lot of sense.
Durant also remains one of the best pure scorers in basketball. Last year’s season was obviously a bit of a disaster, but Durant still averaged 29.9 points per game while shooting 51.8% from the field. You could make the case that no one in history has combined shooting volume and efficiency better than KD.
Durant is also in a solid spot vs. the Pelicans. New Orleans might be improved this season, but the Nets still have the third-highest implied team total on the slate.
Value
Keldon Johnson might be the strongest option for the Spurs on Wednesday. He averaged 35.65 DKFP in five games without Murray and White last season, which was the top mark on the team. He trailed only Lonnie Walker in usage in those contests, and Walker is now plying his trade for the Lakers. Johnson has the look of a potential superstar, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put his skills on display vs. the Hornets.
Fast Break
It’s starting to get a bit chilly outside, so why not warm up with some Beef Stew? Isaiah Stewart has been solid during the preseason, and he even displayed a new-found 3-point shot. He was 4-10 from downtown in his last outing, and while no one is going to confuse him with Steph Curry anytime soon, that’s a nice wrinkle for his fantasy game. Even without the 3-pointer, Stewart averaged nearly a fantasy point per minute last year, and he’s projected for around 30 minutes at just $5,000 on FanDuel.
With Triple-J sidelined, Brandon Clarke could be looking at some extended run for the Grizzlies on Wednesday. He averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute last season, so Clarke is always viable when he has the potential to play more than usual.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Bam Adebayo is priced at just $6,400 on DraftKings. That’s mind-bogglingly low for a player who is one of the best centers in basketball. He’s capable of doing everything on the basketball court, and he averaged 41.43 DraftKings points per game last year.
Adebayo also has the potential for a career-year in 2022-23. The coaching staff has talked about him being more aggressive offensively, and Adebayo was way more active as a scorer during the preseason. He posted a usage rate of at least 29.5% in all three games, which represents a sizable increase from his average of 25.0% last year. If Adebayo can add a bit more scoring to his fantasy profile, this salary is going to look like an absolute joke.
Value
It’s hard to look past Adebayo at center, but Jakob Poeltl is an elite option in his own right. He was a per-minute stud last season, averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute, but his playing time was a bit inconsistent. However, in 54 games with at least 30 minutes as a member of the Spurs, he averaged 36.56 DraftKings points. He should be locked into 30 minutes per night this season, at least until the Spurs shut him down with a phantom injury in their chase for Victor Wenbamyana.
Fast Break
It’s been a while, but that Nikola Jokic fella is pretty good as far as I can remember. The back-to-back MVP averaged a stout 1.83 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he’s priced down to just $10,300 on DraftKings on opening night. He was routinely priced above $12,000 last season, so he clearly has some appeal at that number.
Myles Turner has been a tantalizing fantasy option for basically his entire career. He’s the rare center who can protect the rim and shoot the 3-pointer, but he’s never really lived up to expectations. However, he’s spent most of his career playing next to Domantas Sabonis, so maybe this is the year he finally breaks out.
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