NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Nov. 9): Sky is the Limit for Myles Turner

Wednesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Darius Garland was asked to do everything offensively for the Cavaliers last season, but the team acquired Donovan Mitchell in the offseason. Most expected Garland to take a step back with Mitchell in the fold, but he’s actually increased his assist rate and usage rate compared to last year. He hasn’t been quite as efficient to start the year – he’s shooting just 41.3% from the field – but he ultimately possesses the same upside that he did in his breakout season.

That makes Garland too cheap for a matchup vs. the Kings. They rank 10th in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency, so this is a fantastic spot for the Cavaliers’ offense. Garland’s price tag has dipped -$2,200 compared to last season, so this is an awesome buy-low opportunity.

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Value

Jamal Murray has been a strong source of value for the Nuggets recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 29.0% in three of those contests, and he’s scored at least 31.0 FanDuel points in all three. That makes him too cheap at $5,900, especially for a matchup vs. the Pacers. They’ve been the best matchup in fantasy this season, and the Nuggets lead the slate with an implied team total of 120.75 points.

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Fast Break

Luka Doncic is priced at $11,800 on FanDuel, and while that would be exorbitant for most players, it’s pretty fair for Luka. It results in a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each game this season. His matchup vs. the Magic is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.1.

Terry Rozier is another strong pay-up option at point guard. He’s played at least 36.4 minutes in back-to-back games since returning to the lineup, but he’s shot just 18-47 from the field. With some positive shooting regression on Wednesday, he could put together a big performance.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Raptors are currently dealing with the absence of Pascal Siakam, who has been their clear best player this season. He leads the team in both usage and assist rate, creating plenty of value with the rest of the roster.

Fred VanVleet stands out as one of the biggest beneficiaries. His assist rate sits at just 28.6% for the year, but that figure increases to 38.8% with Siakam off the floor. He’s also increased his usage rate from 18.7% to 24.4% with Siakam sidelined, resulting in an average of 1.27 DraftKings points per minute.

VanVleet also draws an elite matchup Monday vs. the Rockets. They’ve played at the seventh-fastest pace this season, and they rank 28th in defensive efficiency. That’s an outstanding combination for fantasy purposes, and the Raptors’ 117.25-point implied team total is the fourth-highest mark on the slate.

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Value

Malik Monk emerged as one of the Lakers’ most trusted options last season outside of LeBron James and Anthony Davis. That was a pretty low bar to clear – they had one of the worst groups of role players in the league – but he doesn’t face much more competition now that he’s in Sacramento.

Monk has a very fantasy-friendly skill set, and he’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. He’s currently questionable with a groin injury, but he’s played at least 28.5 minutes in back-to-back games. That gives him significant appeal if he’s able to suit up, even in a tough matchup vs. the Cavaliers.

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Fast Break

John Wall has shooting guard and point guard eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most valuable on Wednesday. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s making the most of his playing time. He’s averaged 1.12 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 27.6 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Despite his success, his price tag has dropped by -$600 following his last outing. That doesn’t make much sense.

Sticking with the Clippers, Terance Mann is the preferred value option on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 93%, and he’s currently projected for around 28 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.80 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Nets have had a disastrous start to the year. They fired head coach Steve Nash. They were reportedly going to sign exiled Ime Udoka to be their new coach, but they settled for Jacque Vaughn instead. Kyrie Irving is serving an indefinite suspension, while Ben Simmons has been in and out of the lineup with an injury. Ultimately, the team has provided more drama than the Bravo Network.

Fortunately, the team still has Kevin Durant, and Durant is still really good at basketball. He continues to score the ball at an elite rate, averaging 31.0 points per game on 51.8% shooting. His peripherals have taken a hit with Simmons in the lineup this season, but Simmons was limited to less than 16 minutes in his last outing. He isn’t expected to see much more than that on Wednesday, so Durant should continue to see a spike in value. He has a similar ceiling to some of the top players in fantasy, but he’s available at a slight discount.

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Value

With the Nets hurting, Royce O’Neale has been asked to carry a monster workload of late. He’s played at least 38.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s expected to see a similar role on Wednesday. He’s not the greatest per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season – but he can make up for it through sheer volume. O’Neale has also been better than usual in that department of late, resulting in at least 29.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games.

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Fast Break

Devin Vassell moved back into the Spurs’ starting lineup in their last game, and he racked up 30.75 DraftKings points in 34.1 minutes. He wasn’t particularly efficient either, shooting just 6-17 from the field. Vassell has averaged a stout 1.19 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s going to be an excellent value if he continues to see that much playing time.

Robert Covington has returned to the Clippers lineup recently, but it hasn’t impacted Marcus Morris. He continues to play all the minutes he can handle, logging at least 37.5 in each of his past two. That’s a ton of playing time for someone priced at just $5,300 on FanDuel, especially when that player has averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Bucks have made a significant change to their rotation this season. Last year, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez played exclusively at center, meaning the two players virtually never shared the court. That made it tough for either player to provide much fantasy value. This year, the team has been much more willing to play both players together, which has allowed both players to flourish.

Portis should get another boost in value on Wednesday. Jrue Holiday is currently listed as doubtful, so he is not expected to suit up. Portis has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Holiday off the floor this season, increasing his fantasy production to 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a ridiculously high number, with only Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeding that mark at PF on Wednesday’s slate.

Editor’s Note — Antetokounmpo was ruled out for Wednesday’s contest, making Portis an even stronger option. Brook Lopez and Grayson Allen also become excellent plays. Make sure to reference the NBA Models for a full update on all of the Bucks’ outlooks.

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Value

Kevin Love is always tough to trust in fantasy due to his low minute count, but he typically makes up for it with elite volume. He’s averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is an absurd figure for someone who costs just $4,900. He’s racked up at least 28.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s gone off for at least 44.0 DKFP in two of them. That gives him an excellent ceiling for his price tag.

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Fast Break

Dwight Powell is priced near the minimum on FanDuel, and his playing time is on the rise. He’s racked up at least 22.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he draws one of the best possible matchups Wednesday vs. the Magic. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency, and Powell owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.68. He stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position in our NBA Models.

Steven Adams is currently questionable for the Grizzlies, and Brandon Clarke started in his absence on Monday. He racked up just under 30.7 minutes of playing time, and Clarke has historically been an outstanding per-minute producer. He would become a very appealing value play if Adams is ruled out again.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Deandre Ayton isn’t exactly a stud center, but he still stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he typically plays around 30 minutes per night. That doesn’t give him the same upside as some of the best centers in basketball, but he’s a good bet to return value.

There’s also a chance that Ayton is asked to play a bit more than usual on Wednesday. The Timberwolves have one of the biggest frontcourts in the league, and the Suns are now without Cameron Johnson. That has the potential to be a huge boost to his fantasy value.

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Value

Myles Turner is priced pretty similarly to Ayton, and while he might not possess the same floor, his upside as astronomical. He’s coming off 62.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, and he’s scored at least 54.5 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. He played more than 36.6 minutes in his last outing, and he’s averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute this season.

While I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, Turner is definitely a candidate for a monster year. He has always possessed an excellent skill set for fantasy purposes, but he’s been forced to split time with Domantas Sabonis. With Sabonis now in Sacramento, the coast is clear for Turner to put in work as the team’s full-time center. As long as he can stay healthy, he’s not going to be this cheap for long.

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Fast Break

Obi Toppin saw a few more minutes than usual for the Knicks in their last game, and he responded with 36.75 DraftKings points. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he could continue to earn more minutes with Mitchell Robinson sidelined. He’s an outstanding GPP option at just $3,800.

Alperen Sengun continues to crush whenever he’s on the floor, averaging 1.31 FanDuel points per minute. He’s coming off 44.0 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he’s hit that threshold in two of his past three games. As long as he continues to play for around 30 minutes, he’s going to provide value at his current salary.