Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic finally disappointed fantasy players in his last game, if you can call 44 points and 58.25 DraftKings points disappointing. That would be a season-best type of outing for most players, but it resulted in a negative Plus/Minus at his monster salary.
The good news is that Doncic continues to post an otherworldly usage rate this season. He was at 42.1% in his last game, and he’s posted an average usage rate of 40.9% so far this season. He’s led the league in that department in each of the past two years, but his current mark is on pace to shatter his previous career high.
The only reason Doncic’s fantasy points were a bit down in his last outing was that he struggled to rack up the peripherals. However, Doncic still leads the league with a 51.5% assist rate, and he’s on pace for a new career-high in rebound rate as well. Add it all up, and Doncic has averaged 1.83 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. He’s worth consideration as a stud basically every time he takes the floor, and Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Jazz is no exception.
Value
An injury to De’Aaron Fox should revive Davion Mitchell’s fantasy stock. He was buried pretty deep in the rotation to start the year, racking up 16.1 minutes or fewer in four straight games. However, Mitchell racked up 31.3 minutes of playing time on Monday, and he responded with 34.0 DraftKings points.
With Fox sidelined on Wednesday, Mitchell is set up for another big performance. The Heat are a tough matchup, but it’s hard to ignore Mitchell as the team’s starting point guard at just $4,200. He’s the best value option on the slate.
Fast Break
It was unclear how much Dejounte Murray’s fantasy stock would fall after being traded to the Hawks and having to share the court with Trae Young. However, the early returns are promising. He’s still averaged 1.21 FanDuel points per minute this season despite a usage decrease of roughly -2.5%. Murray leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.
Reggie Jackson has been a major disappointment to start the year, but he did play 30 minutes in the Clippers’ last game. He’s currently projected for a similar workload in our NBA Models, making his $4,700 salary pretty appealing. Jackson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +7.26 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool), so he’s a nice buy-low target.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Bucks draw one of the best possible matchups Wednesday vs. the Pistons. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency to start the year, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace. The Bucks are currently implied for 117.25 points in this spot, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Jrue Holiday has been upgraded to probable for this matchup, and he’s coming off back-to-back double-doubles. He’s scored 47.4 and 66.4 FanDuel points in those outings, and he’s averaged 1.24 FanDuel points per minute this season. With Khris Middleton still sidelined, Holiday should continue to serve as the team’s No. 2 scoring threat and top facilitator. He’s most valuable today on FanDuel given his eligibility at both guard spots at his 79% Bargain Rating.
Value
The Spurs continue to go from thin to thinner this season. There were already plenty of minutes and usage available following the departure of Murray, and now Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have been ruled out on Wednesday.
That leaves Josh Richardson as one of their top offensive options. He’s completely revived his stock in San Antonio, averaging 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s increased his usage rate to 25% with both Vassell and Johnson off the floor, so he has the potential for more production vs. the Raptors. Richardson is also one of the better pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.
Fast Break
Kevin Heurter is another member of the Kings who should be asked to pick up the slack sans Fox. He’s coming off his best game of the season in his last outing, racking up 43.5 DraftKings points, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute.
Jalen Green has posted a negative Plus/Minus in three straight games, which has caused his salary to creep back down a bit. However, nothing has changed about his role; he simply hasn’t been able to make any shots of late. He’s just 13-54 from the field in those contests, so he’s a prime candidate for some positive regression.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Bulls are a solid team to target on Wednesday’s slate. They’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means that Zach LaVine is expected to get the night off. They’re also taking on the Hornets, who were one of the best matchups in fantasy last year. They haven’t been quite as friendly for fantasy purposes to start the new season, but Chicago’s implied team total of 114.5 still ranks seventh on the slate.
DeMar DeRozan figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of LaVine’s absence. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.6% in games without LaVine this season, and he’s averaged 49.08 DraftKings points per game. DeRozan also averaged 48.81 DraftKings points in 13 games without LaVine last season, so he’s underpriced at $8,500 on Wednesday.
Value
R.J. Barrett has had a disappointing start to his season as he struggles to find a role alongside Jalen Brunson. His usage rate has dipped from 27.6% last year to just 24.2%, while his assist rate has plummeted from 14.9% to 8.6%. Add in some poor shooting numbers – Barrett has shot just 40.0% from the field and 21.9% from 3-point range – and his fantasy production has dipped to just 0.77 FanDuel points per minute.
However, Barrett’s salary has also decreased, and he’s priced at just $5,500 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. Atlanta ranks just 26th in defensive efficiency and 11th in pace this season, and the Knicks actually own the top implied team total on the slate. This could be a breakout spot for Barrett, who is not going to miss shots forever.
Fast Break
Scottie Barnes has averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute to start the year, and he’s coming off his best game of the season on Monday. He racked up 42.4 FanDuel points, and he took on a greater role as a distributor with Fred VanVleet sidelined. VanVleet is questionable for Wednesday, and Barnes would become one of the best options at the position if he’s ultimately ruled out.
Gordon Hayward isn’t the sexiest DFS play – especially with his awful new haircut – but he’s been a pretty steady contributor for the shorthanded Hornets. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s expected to see around 34 minutes vs. the Bulls.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The decision between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Luka for the top spot on Wednesday’s slate is a tough one. Luka has been slightly better on a per-minute basis and is a bit cheaper, but Giannis has the superior matchup and a longer track record. He’s averaged around 1.8 DraftKings points per minute for the better part of four seasons, while Doncic just recently entered that rarified air.
Giannis is coming off just 44.75 DraftKings points in his last outing – also against the Pistons – but he scored at least 64.0 DraftKings points in each of his previous four contests. He’s seen a nice spike in usage to start the year with Middleton sidelined, and Giannis can pile up the peripherals like no one else in basketball. Our NBA Models give Giannis a slight edge, but it’s very, very close.
Value
Patrick Williams should be a solid value play for the Bulls. His per-minute production has been lacking this season – he’s averaged just 0.66 DKFP per minute – but he should make up for it with plenty of volume. He’s played at least 31.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and those were with LaVine in the lineup. LaVine averaged 35.5 minutes in those contests, so there are even more minutes available vs. the Hornets.
Fast Break
P.J. Washington has scored 43.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s attempted at least 21 shots in both contests. Washington should continue to be aggressive on the offensive end with LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Miles Bridges sidelined, so he’s underpriced at just $5,700 on DraftKings.
Isaiah Stewart has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.28 on DraftKings this season, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s added a 3-pointer to his offensive arsenal for this season, giving him a bit more ability on the offensive end. He’s a strong bet for a double-double in this contest, so he’s another viable option in the midrange.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Pascal Siakam has taken his game to another level to start the year. He’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute, and minutes are never really an issue in Toronto. Nick Nurse has shown a willingness to run his players into the ground during the regular season, and Siakam has played at least 38.0 minutes in three of his past five games.
Siakam would be an even stronger option if VanVleet is ruled out. He increased his assist and usage rates in his last contest, and he racked up 61.5 DraftKings points. He did that in just 35.2 minutes, which is a light day at the office for Siakam. The Spurs rank just 24th in defensive efficiency to start the year, so Siakam has the potential for another monster performance.
Value
Brook Lopez missed most of the regular season last year, but he has been a massive part of the Bucks’ early season success in 2022-23. He’s also provided fantasy owners with a ton of value, exceeding salary-based expectations in all six games.
Lopez has taken things to another level recently, scoring at least 36.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s logged at least 33.4 minutes in all three contests, and he’s historically been the type of player who can average more than a fantasy point per minute. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings per minute so far this year, so it’s hard not to love him at just $5,400.
Fast Break
Mitchell Robinson has had foul trouble in his past two contests, which has been a recurring problem for the talented young big man. Fortunately, the Hawks are not the best team in the league at drawing fouls, so he has the chance to stay on the floor a bit more on Wednesday. He’s currently projected for approximately 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s going to provide value at $4,900 if he hits that number.
Alperen Sengun has started three straight games for the Rockets, and he’s played at least 29.2 minutes in the past two. Sengun has averaged 1.22 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has the potential to provide big value at $6,300 if he remains in the starting lineup.
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