NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Nov. 16): It’s Jamal Murray Season

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

LaMelo Ball has suited up in each of the past two games for the Hornets, and the early returns have been promising. He hasn’t exactly thrived from a fantasy perspective, averaging just 1.13 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s averaged a 30.1% usage rate in those contests. That represents a slight increase from his mark of 28.2% last year, which makes sense with Miles Bridges out of the picture. He’s shot just 12-36 from the field in his first two games, so he’s a prime candidate for some positive regression.

That could start in an elite matchup vs. the Pacers. They’ve been a fantasy goldmine this season, ranking second in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency. The Hornets 118.0 implied team total ranks second on the slate, so they have far more scoring upside than usual.

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Value

The Knicks should benefit from the absence of Nikola Jokic on Wednesday. The Nuggets aren’t a good defensive team to begin with, allowing an average of 110.6 points per 100 possessions, but they’ve been even worse with Jokic sidelined. That figure drops all the way to 118.1, which would easily be the worst mark in the league.

Immanuel Quickley’s playing time has also been on the rise, racking up at least 23.4 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a few extra minutes. If he sees a similar workload vs. the Nuggets, he should be able to pay off his current salary.

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Fast Break

The Mavericks are going to be an important team to monitor on this slate. There’s some speculation that Luka Doncic could rest on the second leg of a back-to-back after admitting he was “tired” last week. If he does sit, it would be tough to avoid Spencer Dinwiddie at $6,800 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and Dinwiddie has averaged 1.08 FanDuel points per minute with Luka off the floor. He also draws a phenomenal matchup vs. the Rockets, who rank 29th in defensive efficiency.

Anytime you drop 51 points in your last game, you’re going to warrant some consideration. That’s what Darius Garland did in his last outing, and he would be a strong option if the team is shorthanded once again. He leads the position with a 97% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

With Jokic in health and safety protocols, there are going to be tons of additional offensive opportunities for the rest of the roster. Jamal Murray should be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He leads the team with a 35.6% usage rate with Jokic off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. That’s a sizable increase from his average of 1.01 DraftKings per minute in general.

The Knicks have also been a sneaky-good matchup this season. They rank eighth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, so they’re not playing like a typical Tom Thibodeau-coached squad.

Murray has dual PG/SG eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most valuable on Wednesday. Not only does he offer more positional flexibility, but he comes with a 79% Bargain Rating.

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Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. would be another player to consider if Doncic sits out. He’s priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings, and he’s increased his production to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with Doncic off the floor. That’s a sizable spike from his average of 0.78 for the year, and he would also likely pick up a few additional minutes.

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Fast Break

Paolo Banchero has been ruled out for the Magic, so Franz Wagner should continue to see a boost in value. Wagner has scored at least 33.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s seen bumps to his usage rate (+3.6%), assist rate (+6.3%), and rebound rate (+0.5%) with Banchero off the floor. His matchup with the Timberwolves is also appealing, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.76 on DraftKings.

There’s no shortage of value on this slate, but the Pacers are another team with a huge name on the injury report. Tyrese Haliburton is questionable, and the rest of the roster would get a boost if he’s ruled out. That includes Andrew Nembhard, who’s priced at the minimum on FanDuel. Nembhard is already projected for more than 24 minutes in our NBA Models, which puts him in play regardless of Haliburton’s status. Historically, min-priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.04 with a comparable minute projection (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Michael Porter Jr. is another player who should take on a larger workload sans Jokic. He hasn’t seen nearly the same bump as Murray, but he should see some improvement to his usage rate vs. the Knicks. Porter has already averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he doesn’t need to be much better than that to provide elite value at $5,900.

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Value

Cam Reddish is another min-priced option worth considering on FanDuel. He’s played at least 32.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 25.75 FanDuel points in both. He went off for 43.25 FanDuel points two games ago vs. the Thunder, so he has plenty of upside as well. Reddish is projected for another 29 minutes in our NBA Models, making him one of the best per-dollar options on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

Bruce Brown also warrants consideration for the Nuggets. He doesn’t figure to see the same scoring bump as Murray and Porter, but Brown is capable of stuffing the stat sheet. He has at least 10 rebounds and six assists in back-to-back games, and Jokic obviously leaves a massive void in those departments as well. Brown is currently projected for around 30 minutes on this slate, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.55 with a comparable salary and minute projection on DraftKings.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is pricy across the industry, but there’s more than enough value to comfortably pay up for him on this slate. He’s coming off back-to-back subpar games vs. the Hawks, but no one in basketball can match his upside. If Doncic sits, Antetokounmpo’s ceiling projection would lead the slate by a wide margin.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Heat are going to be without Tyler Herro for another game, and they could be even thinner vs. the Raptors. Bam Adebayo is currently questionable, and he’s led the team in usage with Herro sidelined.

If Bam is unable to suit up, Jimmy Butler is going to have to carry a monster workload on Wednesday. He’s increased his production to 1.51 DKFP per minute with Herro and Bam off the floor this season, thanks mostly to a 44.0% assist rate. This game doesn’t have a ton of fantasy appeal – the 216.0 total is the lowest mark on the slate – but it would be hard to ignore Butler if the team is shorthanded.

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Value

With the Nuggets getting so much attention on this slate, Kevin Love could fly a bit under the radar. The Cavaliers have the potential to be incredibly thin on Wednesday, with Jarrett Allen out, Dean Wade doubtful, and Donovan Mitchell a game-time decision.

Love started in the Cavaliers’ last game, and he didn’t see much of a boost in value. His usage and rebound rate were both down, which impacted his per-minute effectiveness. That said, he did play more than 29 minutes, and he responded with 27.25 DKFP. Love also shot just 3-11 from the field, so he has a bit of room for improvement vs. the Bucks.

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Fast Break

Evan Mobley is another potential option for the Cavaliers. Like Love, he didn’t see a huge boost in value in their last game, but that’s going to happen when one of your teammates goes off for 51 points. He had 46.25 DraftKings points in his previous contest, and his arrow is clearly pointing up with Allen sidelined.

Isaiah Jackson is one of my favorite players in DFS. He’s hyper-active when on the floor, averaging 1.10 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s coming off more than 21 minutes in his last contest. He’s projected for a similar workload on Wednesday, and his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Myles Turner’s price tag continues to tick up, but he continues to provide value. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, including a massive 62.5 DraftKings point performance vs. the Pelicans. He hasn’t been able to duplicate those results in his last two contests, but he’s been limited to less than 27 minutes in both due to foul trouble.

Turner has averaged a stout 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he has massive upside if he can stay on the court vs. the Hornets. He should play more than 30 minutes if he can avoid foul trouble, and I like his chances of clearing 40 DraftKings points in that scenario.

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Value

DeAndre Jordan is not nearly the same player that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of providing fantasy value when he sees the floor. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s a candidate to replace Jokic in the starting lineup. He should see a few extra minutes whether he starts or comes off the bench, making him an appealing option at a near-minimum salary.

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Fast Break

The Suns and Warriors will square off in a marquee Western Conference showdown, and Deandre Ayton has historically done some of his best work in that matchup. He’s averaged 37.26 DraftKings points and a +4.39 Plus/Minus in his last five meetings with the Warriors, and he’s been priced down to just $6,200 on DraftKings. This is an excellent buy-low opportunity.

Alperen Sengun has busted in two straight games, but he still stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel. He’s projected for more than 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute this season. His $6,200 salary also comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.