NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, May 3): Target Joel Embiid in Likely Return?

Wednesday features Game 2 of the Eastern Conference semifinals matchup between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers. The Celtics are currently listed as 7.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 217.0.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Jayson Tatum is the most expensive option in this contest, and he’s put together some big fantasy performances during the playoffs. He’s averaged 28.9 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game, and he’s racked up a double-double in five of seven contests. Tatum has been particularly good in his past two games, scoring at least 67.25 DraftKings points in each.

His ability to produce as a scorer and on the glass gives him the safest floor in this matchup, and he has plenty of ceiling as well. He leads all players in our NBA Models in both median and ceiling projection, albeit at an expensive price tag.

The most impressive part of the 76ers’ Game 1 victory is that they did it without Joel Embiid. Embiid is currently listed as doubtful for Game 2, but The Athletic’s Shams Charania reports that Embiid will play on Wednesday, barring an injury setback.

If Embiid does return to the lineup, how you choose to handle him will be a determining factor on this slate. He was easily the top producer in this matchup on a per-minute basis during the regular season, averaging an elite 1.65 DraftKings points per minute. For comparison, Tatum averaged just 1.42.

Of course, Embiid was operating at less than full strength during his first-round matchup vs. the Nets. His usage rate was way down from his regular season mark, and he finished with 42.25, 59.75, and 34.5 DraftKings points in his three games vs. the Nets. There’s also a chance his minutes could be slightly limited in his first game back, making him more risky than usual.

Still, his upside is high enough to make him the top stud on the slate. He also had plenty of success vs. the Celtics during the regular season, scoring at least 69.5 DraftKings points in two of four meetings (per the Trends tool).

The likely return of Embiid will have a massive impact on the rest of the 76ers’ rotation. That includes James Harden, who is coming off arguably the best postseason contest of his entire career. He finished with 45 points on 17-30 shooting from the field and 7-14 from 3-point range, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with eight seconds left in the fourth quarter.

Harden’s usage rate was all the way up to 42.3% in that contest, which stands out as a massive outlier. He hadn’t eclipsed 32.0% in the playoffs before that outburst, and he had 52.5 DraftKings points or fewer in his other four playoff games. Harden’s usage decreases by more than 2% when sharing the floor with Embiid, checking in at a pedestrian 23.4%. He should hand out a few more assists in this contest, but his scoring volume and efficiency should both be way down. He feels like a prime sell-high candidate as long as Embiid is back in the lineup.

If I’m not paying up for Embiid or Tatum at Captain, I will likely be saving a little bit of salary by going down to Jaylen Brown. Brown has been the clear Robin to Tatum’s Batman for the Celtics this season, but he has been fantastic during the postseason. He was arguably the team’s top option in their first-round series vs. the Hawks, racking up 26.7 points per game while shooting 54.1% from the field and 51.5% from 3-point range. His volume was down in Game 1 vs. the 76ers, but his efficiency remained elite: He knocked down 8-10 shots from the field and 3-4 from behind the arc.

Brown posted a usage rate of 18.4% in that contest, which was well below his season average. He had a usage rate above 30% in his final two games vs. the Hawks, so expect far more volume for Brown on Wednesday. Overall, he leads all players in projected Plus/Minus in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Midrange Picks

Like Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris both figure to see reduced roles if Embiid returns to the lineup in Game 2. Maxey posted a playoff-high 34.4% usage rate in his last contest, while Harris had 48.0 DraftKings points in Game 4 vs. Brooklyn. Unsurprisingly, both players have a negative correlation with Embiid on DraftKings:

However, both players are still priced at a point where they can return value. Maxey has scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in all five playoff contests, including two games of at least 37.25 with Embiid active. His salary has actually come down since the start of the postseason, decreasing from $8,400 in Game 1 vs. the Nets to $7,800 on Wednesday. He’s going to see a reduction in usage, but he’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute for the year and is currently projected for more than 38 minutes in our NBA Models.

Harris is likely the bigger loser. He has operated as the 76ers’ No. 4 option with the team at full strength this season, and his average of 28.63 DraftKings points during the regular season was his lowest mark since 2016-17. Still, Harris is a capable scorer when given opportunities, and he has two double-doubles in five games during the playoffs. His chances to return value will be minimal if Embiid returns to his regular-season role, but if he plays like he did in the first three games vs. Brooklyn, Harris will still have a chance to provide value.

Unfortunately, Paul Reed would be unplayable at $7,000 if Embiid returns. He’s an excellent per-minute producer and scored 34.75 and 36.75 DraftKings points in place of Embiid, but he won’t see enough minutes if the MVP is active. If Embiid sits, though, Reed would be a worthy midrange play.

Marcus Smart is currently questionable for the Celtics due to a chest injury. He appeared to be in discomfort after taking an elbow to the chest in Game 1, but he ultimately finished up the game with no real issues. Expect him to be in the lineup on Wednesday.

However, Smart hasn’t been at his best during the playoffs. He’s struggled to 23.25 DraftKings points or fewer in two of his past three games, and he hasn’t seen nearly the same number of minutes that he did in last year’s playoff run. The Celtics have an abundance of backcourt options, so they don’t need Smart quite as much as they did in years past. He’s currently projected for 32.9 minutes in our NBA Models, which puts him well behind guys like Tatum and Brown.

Still, Smart makes plenty of sense from a game theory perspective. His ownership should be down due to the questionable tag, especially when combined with his poor production in Game 1. Finding low-owned players with upside is one of the most difficult challenges in the single-game format, but Smart checks that box on Wednesday.

Al Horford is just a good basketball player. He’s not the same producer that he was in his prime, but he’s capable of doing a little bit of everything to help his team win. He had 11 points, six boards, three assists, and three blocks in Game 1, resulting in 28.5 DraftKings points in 30.1 minutes. He doesn’t have the greatest ceiling, but he does have one game with 43.5 DraftKings points during the postseason.

Derrick White stands out as the best value in this tier in our NBA Models. His production has been down recently, scoring 24.5 DKFP or less in four of his past five games, but he’s been a steady contributor for the Celtics all season. He averaged 0.93 DKFP per minute for the year, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in this contest. Overall, he leads all players priced below $9,000 on DraftKings in projected Plus/Minus.

He would also see a boost if Smart is surprisingly ruled out. He’s seen a team-high bump in both usage and assist rate with Smart off the floor this season, and he’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute.

Malcolm Brogdon was the best per-minute producer among the Celtics’ guards during the regular season, but his production has been down to start the playoffs. He’s still been a steady source of value, scoring at least 22.75 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, but he hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling over that time frame. He doesn’t typically play as much as Smart or White, so unless he can increase his per-minute production, it’s going to be hard for him to compete with those players at comparable salaries.

De’Anthony Melton has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, but two of them have come with Embiid out of the lineup. However, he’s still projected for a respectable 24 minutes in our NBA Models. He stands out as a solid option on FanDuel, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 78%.

With Embiid likely back, this could be a spot where the Celtics might like to lean a bit heavier on Robert Williams. Unfortunately, there’s no guarantee his knee can handle it. Williams has been limited to around 20 minutes for most of the postseason, although he did have two games with at least 27.3 minutes vs. the Hawks. If Williams can approach that level vs. the 76ers, he would stand out as an excellent option at just $5,000 on DraftKings. He’s definitely worth considering in tournaments.

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

• P.J. Tucker ($3,800 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel): Tucker is the type of player I typically try to avoid in the single-game format: reliable minutes, minimal ceiling. That said, he does have two games with at least 20.5 DraftKings points during the playoffs, which would be very useful at his current salary.
• Grant Williams ($3,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel): Williams has barely played for the Celtics of late, logging just four minutes in Game 1. He’s not the best per-minute producer either, so there’s no reason to consider him on Wednesday.
• Jalen McDaniels ($2,200 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): McDaniels stands out as the best option in this tier in terms of projected Plus/Minus. He’s seen a handful of minutes even with Embiid active during the playoffs, and he’s currently projected for just under 16 minutes in our NBA Models. That may not sound like much, but it’s plenty for someone who costs just $2,200. He provides much-needed salary relief for stars-and-scrubs builds.
• Georges Niang ($1,600 DraftKings, $6,500 FanDuel): Niang is another player who is projected for double-digit minutes at a cheap price tag. However, he’s scored 7.5 DraftKings points or fewer in four straight games. That’s technically enough to return value at his current salary, but it’s tough to win a GPP with a guy who has less than 10 fantasy points in your lineup.
• Sam Hauser ($1,200 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): Hauser is the best punt play for the Celtics. He likely won’t play very much, but he did score 16.5 DraftKings points across 13.5 minutes in Game 5 vs. the Hawks. He would be particularly useful if Smart is unable to good, and there’s a chance that Hauser would start in that scenario.
• Shake Milton ($1,000 DraftKings, $6,000 FanDuel): If you’re looking for someone at the absolute minimum on DraftKings, Milton would be my choice. He’s only seen the floor in two postseason contests, but he’s a capable per-minute producer. If he can get on the floor in this matchup, he has the potential to make the most of it.