NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, May 10): Game 5 Klay Thompson?

Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Steph Curry and the Warriors are on the brink of elimination after losing Game 4, but they’re at least headed back to the friendly confines of the Chase Center for Game 5. The Warriors were an elite home team during the regular season, and Curry increased his 3-point percentage from 40.6% on the road to 45.3% at home.

Curry is coming off a huge fantasy performance in Game 4, finishing with 75.5 DraftKings points thanks to a 31-point triple-double. As crazy as it sounds, he has the upside for an even better outing on Wednesday. Curry wasn’t particularly efficient in his last game, shooting just 12-30 from the field and 3-14 from 3-point range. He’s probably due for some regression in the peripheral categories, but he can make up for it with a better shooting performance in Game 5. He should be locked into 40+ minutes in a must-win contest, and the Warriors lead the slate with a 116.5-point implied total.

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Value

Austin Reaves has seen a price drop since the start of the series, and he was able to return value at his new price tag in Game 4. He racked up 32.0 DraftKings points in 34.1 minutes, and there’s no reason he can’t do that again on Wednesday. He’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and Reaves has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.22 with a comparable price tag (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

Jalen Brunson is a strong contrarian option for tournaments. He’s projected for just 16% ownership on DraftKings, which undersells the ceiling he has for his price tag. He racked up 57.5 DraftKings points in Game 4, and he should see all the minutes he can handle in Game 5 with Immanuel Quickley doubtful.

Gabe Vincent stands out as the best value at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s been terrible in the past two games, shooting just 2-15 from the field and 1-9 from 3-point range, so he’s a candidate for some positive regression in Game 5.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

As good as Curry is, he’s going to need a little help from his friends if the Warriors are going to live to fight another day. Klay Thompson remains the most likely candidate. He has not played well over the past two games, but he scored at least 37.75 DraftKings points in the two home games vs. the Lakers. He made 14 3-pointers in those contests, and Thompson is known for showing up in the biggest moments. The best game of his career was arguably Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals vs. the Thunder, where the Warriors were also facing a 1-3 series deficit.

Thompson is one of the strongest options of the day on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

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Value

The likely absence of Quickley opens up plenty of additional playing time in the Knicks’ backcourt. Quentin Grimes was the biggest beneficiary in Game 4, finishing with 22.75 DraftKings points across 41.8 minutes. That represented a massive increase in playing time, with Grimes logging 25.9 minutes or less in each of the first three games of this series.

Grimes has struggled during the postseason, but he’s averaged 0.71 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s also seen a team-high +6.2% usage bump with Quickley off the floor during the playoffs. If he sees another massive workload on Wednesday, he has the potential to be one of the better values on the slate.

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Fast Break

D’Angelo Russell struggled in Game 4, finishing with just 13.5 DraftKings points over 31 minutes. However, he’s been a pretty reliable contributor for most of the postseason. He has at least 34.25 DraftKings points in five of his past eight games, including 44.5 in the closeout win vs. the Grizzlies.

R.J. Barrett is worth consideration on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He struggled mightily in Games 2 and 3 vs. the Heat, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his previous seven games.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James has been quiet during the postseason, and he’s failed to return value in six straight games. He’s deferred more often to his teammates than he did earlier in his career, particularly in the team’s Game 3 win. He didn’t take a single field goal attempt in the first quarter, and his 19.9% usage rate was the fourth-lowest mark he’s ever posted in a postseason contest.

However, things were different in Game 4. James was as aggressive as he’s been all playoffs, finishing with a 31.0% usage rate across 43 minutes. He wasn’t very effective with his chances, shooting just 10-25 from the field, but he still finished with 48.75 DraftKings points. With some better shooting luck in Game 5, James could post his best postseason outing since scoring 63.0 DraftKings points vs. the Grizzlies in round one.

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Value

Gary Payton II figures to be a popular value option on this slate. He moved into the starting lineup in Game 4, and he finished with 21.75 DraftKings points in 23.4 minutes. He brings energy and defense to the Warriors’ lineup, which is something they’re sorely lacking. As long as he retains his spot in the starting unit, he’s a great bet to return value once again. GP2 is a solid per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

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Fast Break

Lonnie Walker IV is another potential source of value at the position. He’s scored at least 23.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he got to be the hero in Game 4. He scored 15 points in the fourth quarter, bringing the Lakers back from a double-digit deficit vs. the defending champs. He’s earned a larger role in the rotation moving forward, and he’s projected for another 24 minutes in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Julius Randle turned in a very forgettable performance in Game 4. In fact, forgettable is probably too generous. His performance will certainly be remembered by Knicks’ fans, particularly his awful body language and the fact that he seemingly quit down the stretch in a competitive game.

That said, Randle still stands out for fantasy purposes at $8,200. He’s played at least 37.6 minutes in three straight games, including 39.3 minutes in Game 4. Randle has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he racked up 47.05 DraftKings points in 35.5 minutes per game during the regular season. He hasn’t been the same player during the postseason while battling injuries, but the ceiling is still there for a monster outing. Randle finished with 53.5 DraftKings points in the Knicks’ only win in this series, and they’ll need similar production to stave off elimination.

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Value

For better or worse, the Warriors are stuck with Draymond Green for the time being. It has not been the prettiest ride, but he’s their best answer at center at the moment. He played 37.2 minutes in the Game 4 loss, finishing with 32.5 DraftKings points on eight points, 10 boards, and seven assists.

Green figures to see another sizable workload in Game 5, making him severely underpriced at $6,300. He’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.06 over the past month. He just narrowly missed a double-double in his last outing and still managed to return value. Green could definitely reach that threshold in Game 5, and a triple-double remains possible.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is also bullish on Green’s fantasy prospects on Wednesday:

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Fast Break

Andrew Wiggins is another player that the Warriors need to get more out of if they’re going to survive. He was arguably their second-best player during their title run last season, but he has not been at nearly the same level this year. However, he did play 38.7 minutes in Game 4, and Wiggins has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That makes him underpriced at his current salary across the industry.

Jimmy Butler owns a Bargain Rating of 88%, and it’s possible he’s a bit overlooked on this slate. His performances have cooled down a bit in this series, even though he’s still scored at least 47.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. He finished with 58 DraftKings points thanks to a double-double in his last outing, and his ceiling projection ranks fourth on the slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Anthony Davis has been absolutely dominant in this matchup, which is what made his disappearing act in the second half of Game 4 such a head-scratcher. He was fantastic in the first half, finishing with 19 points and six boards, and then he was basically invisible after halftime. He finished with just four field goal attempts over the final two quarters, resulting in a somewhat disappointing 50.75 DraftKings points for the game.

I wouldn’t expect a repeat in Game 5. Davis had at least 59.75 DraftKings points in two of his previous three games, despite playing just 33 minutes in one of them. He had 75.25 DraftKings points across nearly 44 minutes in Game 1, and he should be looking at a similar workload on Wednesday. He and Curry have the two highest ceilings on the slate, so pairing them together is a desirable strategy.

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Value

After losing playing time to Isaiah Hartenstein in Games 2 and 3, Mitchell Robinson re-established himself as the Knicks’ preferred center option in Game 4. Robinson racked up more than 33 minutes, while Hartenstein was limited to 14.9 minutes off the bench. Robinson was the only member of the squad with a positive Net Rating in that contest, while the team was outscored by nine points with Hartenstein on the floor.

With that in mind, expect Robinson to earn the lion’s share of the playing time once again in Game 5. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he can definitely pay off his minimal salary with another 30+ minutes.

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Fast Break

Bam Adebayo has been up and down during the postseason, but he possesses a solid ceiling for his salary. He showed that in his last outing, scoring 43.75 DraftKings points across 38.4 minutes. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways, giving him multiple paths to return value.