NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. 8): Buy Low on Trae Young?

Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Trae Young and the Hawks have not had the season they were hoping for. They’re currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference standings, a full five games behind the Nets for the final guaranteed playoff spot. Young has also seen a pretty significant drop in efficiency, shooting just 42.7% from the field and 32.5% from 3-point range. He was at 46.0% and 38.2% in those departments last season, despite averaging more shot attempts per game.

Young has turned in back-to-back disappointing performances, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $8,800. That makes him a clear buy vs. the Wizards. Despite his poor shooting numbers, Young has still averaged an elite 1.51 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s the third-best mark among Wednesday’s backcourt options, trailing only the significantly more expensive Luka Doncic and Damian Lillard.

The Wizards are also a solid matchup. They rank 20th in defensive efficiency, and this game has the highest total on the slate at 236.5 points. The Hawks’ implied team total of 120.0 ranks third on the slate, so this is an awesome time to buy low on one of the best point guards in fantasy.

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Value

Russell Westbrook is an easy player to scapegoat at this point. The Clippers have gone just 1-5 since Westbrook joined the lineup, but he has been far from the problem. The Clippers have increased their Net Rating by +13.1 points per 100 possessions over Westbrook’s 190 minutes, which is the top mark on the team. That’s not an overwhelming sample size, but Westbrook seems more like the solution than the problem for the Clippers at this point.

Westbrook has also delivered excellent production for DFS players during his tenure with the Clippers. He’s scored at least 38.75 DraftKings points in four of his six contests, and his playing time is trending upwards. He’s racked up at least 34.1 minutes in back-to-back games, and Westbrook is still capable of racking up fantasy points with the best of him. If he continues to see that much playing time, he’s going to be a nice value at $7,200.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a more traditional value at point guard, Alex Caruso fits the description. He’s priced at just $3,400 on DraftKings, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. He’s not the greatest per-minute producer, but he plays much more than his current price tags suggests.

Fred VanVleet is an awesome stud target at the position on FanDuel. His matchup vs. the Clippers comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.08, and his $8,200 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 89%. VanVleet has also increased his per-minute production over the past month and is projected for the fourth-most minutes at the position, so he checks a lot of boxes.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Bradley Beal got off to a slow start this season, but he has quietly heated up of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.58 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he finished with 53.75 DraftKings points Tuesday vs. the Pistons. Beal has added some strong assist numbers to his scoring output of late, racking up at least seven dimes in five of his past seven games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

Beal remains relatively affordable across the industry, and his matchup vs. the Hawks is a good one. They rank just 22nd in defensive efficiency, so Beal has the potential for another strong showing.

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Value

The Thunder are likely going to get their doors blown off by the Suns on Wednesday. They’re going to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and talented rookie Jalen Williams, and they’re currently listed as 13.5-point home underdogs. However, they should also be one of the best teams to target for DFS value.

Isaiah Joe stands out as one of their best options. He’s been an excellent per-minute contributor this season, averaging 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, and he has typically thrived when given the chance to play extended minutes. He’s logged at least 25 minutes in 10 games this season, and he’s averaged 25.75 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool). Joe is currently projected for closer to 29 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s an excellent option at his minimal price tag across the industry.

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Fast Break

Josh Okogie continues to play a sizable role for the Suns. He’s coming off just 21.8 minutes in his last contest, but that stands out as a bit of an outlier. He’s projected for more than 28 minutes on Wednesday, and Okogie has averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute for the year. Okogie is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $4,700 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

The Blazers will be without Anfernee Simons once again, so Cam Reddish should continue to play a bit more than usual. He’s thrived with Simons out of the lineup recently, posting 37.5, 30.75, and 38.75 DraftKings points in his past three contests, yet his price tag has stayed pretty stagnant. He’s priced at just $4,700 vs. the Celtics, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram has posted back-to-back poor showings, finishing with 36.25 DraftKings points or fewer in both contests. However, he continues to command an expanded usage rate for the Pelicans. He’s upped his usage to 35.0% since returning from injury in late January, and it has resulted in some big scoring performances. He went for 40 points against the Blazers three games ago, and he has at least 21 field goal attempts in five of his past eight games.

The Mavericks aren’t a great matchup on paper, but they have not been the same team since acquiring Kyrie Irving. They were dead last in pace pre-Kyrie, but they’re 14th over their past 11 games. They also rank just 25th in defensive efficiency over that stretch, so Ingram can find some success in this spot.

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Value

Aaron Wiggins is another potential value option for the Thunder. He’s been a solid contributor of late, exceeding salary-based expectations in five of his past six games, and he racked up 22.0 DraftKings points in 33.1 minutes on Tuesday. With SGA now sidelined, there’s no reason to expect much less playing time vs. the Suns. Wiggins has averaged a very respectable 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with SGA and Williams off the floor this season, so he can do some damage with that much playing time.

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Fast Break

Matisse Thybulle is another interesting value option for the Blazers. He struggled in his last contest, but he did play a whopping 37.5 minutes. Thybulle isn’t the greatest per-minute producer, but that’s a ton of playing time for someone in this price range. He’s a better value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 90%, but his defensive statistics carry more weight on FanDuel.

Lu Dort should serve as the Thunder’s primary scoring threat vs. the Suns. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.3% with SGA and Williams off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.89 FanDuel points per minute. There’s no guarantee he sees a full workload in this matchup, but he should be productive when on the court.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Celtics are in the midst of a downswing. They’ve lost three straight games, and each of them has been in excruciating fashion. They blew a 28-point lead against the Nets, lost in double-overtime vs. the Knicks, and overtime against the Cavaliers. The team was playing shorthanded in their last contest, but Grant Williams needed to make just one of two free throws to secure the team a victory in regulation. Instead, he bricked both, and the Cavs ended up pulling it out in OT.

Jayson Tatum was one of the players who missed that contest, but he is not listed on the injury report for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Blazers. This is the perfect opportunity for Tatum and the Celtics to get back on track. The Blazers have been an absolute disaster since losing Jusuf Nurkic, ranking dead last in defensive efficiency and 29th in team rebound rate. There’s a chance that Nurkic returns to the lineup on Wednesday, but he will be limited even if he’s active.

Tatum is also cheaper than usual at $10,300. He still leads all of Wednesday’s forwards with an average of 1.42 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he is routinely among the leaders in minutes played. That’s an appealing combination. Tatum has gone off for at least 60.75 DraftKings points in four of his past seven games, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he did it again vs. the Blazers.

You can find Tatum and more players in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

The Celtics are going to be without Robert Williams for a few more games, which means Al Horford should provide a bit more fantasy production than usual. Horford has already been playing well recently, averaging 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for more than 33 minutes vs. the Blazers. He’s averaged just under 32 minutes in 27 games without Williams this season, so that kind of production feels sustainable.

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Fast Break

De’Andre Hunter doesn’t provide much of a ceiling, but he’s arguably the best pure value at the position on DraftKings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s projected for more than 34 minutes at just $4,700. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.92.

Kevin Durant has always been an efficient scorer, but he’s been ridiculous since joining the Suns. He’s shot 69% from the field through his first three contests, and he logged more than 40 minutes in their last game. Durant was limited in his first two contests with Phoenix, but if he’s going to continue to play that much, he’s undoubtedly underpriced at $10,100 on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

There are more expensive options available at center, but Clint Capela stands out as arguably the best value. Capela has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.22 DKFP per minute over the past month. The problem has been a lack of playing time, as he’s split the center minutes with Onyeka Okongwu for most of the year.

However, with the playoffs now around the corner, the Hawks are starting to lean a little bit heavier on their starting center. Capela has racked up at least 33.8 minutes in two of his past four games, including his most recent contest. He’s scored at least 35.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s displayed a ceiling of nearly 50. You will gladly take that kind of production at $6,300.

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Value

Let’s round things out with one more Thunder value play. Jaylin Williams has been the lesser of the two “J. Williams” rookies in OKC, but he has started to carve out a slightly larger role recently. He’s logged at least 25.4 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s returned positive value in each of them. That includes 27.1 minutes and 28.5 DraftKings points Tuesday vs. the Warriors. Overall, he’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he should continue to be a solid source of production at his cheap price tag with around 25 minutes of playing time.

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Fast Break

Jonas Valanciunas broke out of a small slump in his last contest, finishing with 40.9 FanDuel points over 32 minutes. Jo Val has played at least 29 minutes in four of his past five games, and he has historically been one of the best per-minute producers in the business. He remains affordable at $6,400 on FanDuel, so you can definitely go back to the well vs. the Mavericks.

On the other side of that matchup, Christian Wood has been priced down to a point where he’s usable again in DFS. His playing time has been slashed recently, but Wood has still averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for around 23 minutes on Wednesday, which should give him a chance to return value at $4,900.