NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. 22): It’s Dame Time

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Blazers are one of the few teams in the Western Conference who are not fighting for a playoff spot. They seemingly made the decision to tank over the second half of the year, and they have fallen all the way to the sixth-worst record in the NBA. They’ve lost six straight contests, and things don’t figure to get any better moving forward. They’ll be without Anfernee Simons and Jerami Grant on Wednesday, leaving the team without two of their top three players.

Damian Lillard is the last man standing, and he’s going to have to carry a monster workload vs. the Jazz. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.6% with Simons and Grant off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.75 DraftKings points per minute. That is an elite figure – Luka Doncic has averaged 1.68 DraftKings points per minute this season – and it’s over a significant sample size of 323 minutes. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Jazz, and Lillard brings one of the top ceilings on the slate at a slight discount.

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Value

Kyle Kuzma will miss his second consecutive game with an ankle injury, and Monte Morris has been one of the biggest beneficiaries when he’s been out of the lineup this season. He racked up 27.4 FanDuel points across 31.5 minutes on Tuesday, and he’s averaged 0.99 FanDuel points per minute in six games with Kuzma sidelined. He might not see quite as much playing time on Wednesday – he’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models – but he’s still a strong bet to pay off his $4,900 salary on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

Kevin Porter Jr. has played all the minutes he can handle recently. He’s racked up at least 37.8 minutes in five straight games, and KPJ has averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute for the year. His 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

Bruce Brown stands out as a solid source of savings on DraftKings. His $4,400 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 95%, and Brown has averaged a productive 0.86 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s projected for just under 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and his matchup vs. the Wizards results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.33.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The big news for the Grizzlies is that Ja Morant is expected to return to the lineup following a nine-game absence. However, it’s still unclear what his role will be. Morant told the coaching staff that he’d be willing to come off the bench, and it’s possible that they take him up on that offer. Regardless, his minutes will almost certainly be limited in his first game back.

Dillon Brooks will also miss Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Rockets due to a suspension, so Desmond Bane should continue to carry an expanded workload. He leads the team with a 29.1% usage rate by with Brooks and Morant off the floor this season, and he’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario. The Rockets are also one of the best possible matchups in DFS, ranking 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. The Grizzlies are currently implied for 122.0 points, which is the third-highest mark on the slate.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations are particularly high on Bane’s assist potential in this spot:

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Value

Lillard is the clear top target for the Blazers on Wednesday, but he’s not going to be able to do everything by himself. He’s going to need some help, and Cam Reddish stands out as one of the most logical options. His role has been inconsistent since joining the Blazers, but he has seen a nice spike in value whenever Simons has been unavailable. He’s averaged 34.3 minutes and 28.0 DraftKings points in seven games without Simons this season, and he racked up 37.0 DraftKings points in his only game without Simons and Grant. He should play more than 30 minutes in this spot, making him one of the best value options on the slate.

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Fast Break

John Konchar is another potential option for the Grizzlies. He’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings, and he’s projected for more than 23 minutes vs. the Rockets. Historically, players with a comparable price tag and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.34 (per the Trends tool). That’s not an elite figure, but the matchup vs. the Rockets makes it a bit more appealing.

The Jazz are going to be shorthanded again on Wednesday. Jordan Clarkson remains out of the lineup, while Lauri Markkanen is questionable. That makes Talen Horton-Tucker an excellent option against the Blazers’ horrendous defense. He’s averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute with Clarkson, Mike Conley, and Collin Sexton off the floor this season, and that figure increases to 1.15 with Markkanen sidelined as well.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

I don’t normally go out of my way to target players against the Knicks. They’re slightly above average in terms of defensive efficiency, and they rank 26th in pace. The Heat are also a slow team, ranking 28th in pace, so this game has the potential to be a rock fight. The total for this contest sits at 224.5 points, which is the second-lowest mark on the slate.

Still, it’s impossible to ignore what Jimmy Butler has done recently. He is trying to will the Heat into a guaranteed playoff spot, and he’s doing a pretty darn good job of it. They’re just 0.5 games behind the Nets for the No. 6 seed in the East, and they’ve won six of their past nine games. Butler has scored at least 44.25 DraftKings points in nine of his past 10 contests, including 55.0 DraftKings points against the Knicks. Overall, his average of 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo among Wednesday’s forwards. This is simply too cheap given his recent production.

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Value

With Brooks sidelined, the Grizzlies are going to have to go a bit deeper into their rotation vs. the Rockets. David Roddy is someone who should help pick up the slack. He’s already carved out a decent role of late, logging at least 20.1 minutes in four of his past six games, and that figure could approach 30 on Wednesday. Roddy has also been extremely productive when on the floor, averaging 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Add it all up, and he’s way too cheap at $3,200.

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Fast Break

Matisse Thybulle is also worth considering for the Blazers, particularly on FanDuel with the extra emphasis placed on defensive stats. He’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and Thybulle has averaged 26.47 FanDuel points in nine games with at least 26 minutes as a member of the Blazers.

Scottie Barnes is questionable for the Raptors, and it sounds like there’s a real chance he misses Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pacers. That said, he stands out as an excellent value if he suits up. His $6,500 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%, and the Pacers are one of the best matchups in fantasy. Barnes was priced at $7,400 in his last matchup, so this price drop doesn’t feel justified.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Things have the potential to get real ugly in Milwaukee on Wednesday. The Bucks are taking on the Spurs, pitting arguably the best team in the league against the worst. The Bucks are unsurprisingly listed as massive 18-point favorites, and they lead the slate with an implied team total of 127.75 points. I have been writing about NBA DFS for more than five years, and I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a total that large.

There is a very good chance that Antetokounmpo ends up playing fewer minutes than usual, but his ceiling is still massive. He’s averaged 1.83 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he can easily eclipse 2.00 DraftKings points per minute vs. the Spurs. They’ve played at the fifth-fastest pace in the league this season, and they’re dead last in defensive efficiency.

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Value

Xavier Tillman continues to stand out as an excellent value on FanDuel. His playing time has decreased recently, but he’s still projected for around 27 minutes vs. the Rockets. That should be more than enough to pay off his $5,300 price tag. Tillman has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his matchup vs. the Rockets results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74. That’s the best mark at the power forward position by a pretty wide margin.

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Fast Break

Draymond Green doesn’t bring the same nightly triple-double upside that he did in his prime, but he’s still a good bet for around 30 DraftKings points on most slates. He’s averaged right around a fantasy point per minute this season, and he’s averaged 32.4 minutes over his past eight games.

Kristaps Porzingis shouldn’t garner much ownership on this slate, but he provides a bit more upside than usual with Kuzma out of the picture. He scored 30 points sans Kuzma on Tuesday, finishing with 48.5 DraftKings points vs. the Magic. Overall, he’s averaged just over 43 DraftKings points in eight games without Kuzma this season, and he leads the team with a 34.5% usage rate in those contests.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves are expected to get some much-needed help on Wednesday. Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to return to the lineup after missing the past 52 games, and the timing could not be better. The Timberwolves are holding on to one of the final spots in the Western Conference play-in tournament by a thread, and Towns is arguably their best player.

Still, don’t expect Towns to do too much in his return to the lineup. Anthony Edwards is also questionable, so the team still has plenty of question marks for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Hawks. Fortunately, this is a phenomenal matchup for Rudy Gobert on the interior. The Hawks rank 28th in points in the paint allowed per game and 21st in team rebound rate, which are two areas where Gobert excels. He has also seen a nice uptick in production recently, averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Gobert has scored at least 36.0 DraftKings points in four of his past six contests, and he’s racked up at least 55.25 in two. He has an excellent ceiling for his price tag in this spot.

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Value

The Suns’ roster is pretty depleted at the moment. Kevin Durant remains out, and the team traded away two valuable pieces in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson to acquire him. Deandre Ayton will also miss his second straight game, opening up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster.

Bismack Biyombo started at center in place of Ayton on Monday, and he chipped in 20.5 DraftKings points in 20.1 minutes. That kind of production seems repeatable vs. the Lakers. Biyombo has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the Lakers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.

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Fast Break

Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu have split the center minute in Atlanta for most of the year, and both players are priced pretty similarly on this slate. That said, Capela is the clear target from an upside perspective. He’s racked up 41.5 and 36.5 DraftKings points in his past two games, and he’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly. He has an outstanding ceiling for someone who costs just $5,300.

Zach Collins has been an absolute monster since the Spurs traded away Jakob Poeltl. He’s increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 28.4 minutes in four straight games. Unsurprisingly, he’s scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in all four contests. The minutes might not be there if this game turns into a blowout, but expect him to produce when on the floor.