NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Mar. 15): Target the Clippers’ Stud Duo

Wednesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Lakers are making their push for the postseason. Despite not having LeBron James in the lineup recently, the team has managed to win four of their past five contests. They’re up to 10th in the Western Conference, but they’re just 3.0 games behind the Suns for the No. 4 seed. A guaranteed postseason spot is not yet out of the question.

D’Angelo Russell missed some time recently with an injury but has suited up in the team’s past three games. He’s given the Lakers stellar production, going off for 50.25, 54.75, and 35.75 DraftKings points. Overall, Russell has increased his production to 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which represents a massive increase from his average of 1.06 for the year.

Russell should continue to provide value in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets. Houston ranks 29th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace.

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Value

The Spurs are limping toward the finish line, and we’re still waiting on their official injury report on the second leg of a back-to-back. That’s going to be an important factor on Wednesday’s slate. Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, and Malaki Branham were all sidelined on Tuesday, and Devin Vassell is also uncertain on a back-to-back.

Devonte’ Graham is someone who should be available, and he could be a featured part of their offense depending on who is available. He’s been a fantastic per-minute producer since being acquired by the Spurs, averaging 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He racked up 35.0 DraftKings points in less than 25 minutes on Tuesday, and he should play more minutes if Wednesday’s matchup is more competitive. As long as Branham and Jones are sidelined, Graham is an outstanding value option to consider in the backcourt.

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Fast Break

The Mavericks have already ruled out Luka Doncic for the third straight game, while Kyrie Irving is not expected to suit up. Christian Wood and Tim Hardaway Jr. are also questionable, so the team could be down their top four offensive options. Jaden Hardy has gotten significantly more expensive of late, but he’s going to have to carry another massive workload on Wednesday. He’s played at least 37.4 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.1% in both contests. He’s scored 31.0 and 47.5 DraftKings points in those games, so he’s still underpriced at $5,500 on DraftKings.

Tyus Jones will continue to start for the Grizzlies for as long as Ja Morant is sidelined, and his $7,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. Jones has been productive when filling in for Morant all season, and he’s increased his production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The other LA squad is also making a postseason push. The Clippers have been very careful with their best players this season, but load management appears to have gone out the window recently. The Clippers are currently in sixth place in the Western Conference after winning three straight games, and they’re going to do whatever possible to hold on to one of the guaranteed playoff spots.

Paul George has played at least 38.9 minutes in back-to-back contests, including more than 40 minutes in Sunday’s win over the Knicks. PG13 has racked up at least 48.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests, and he should continue to deliver value with an expanded role. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and the Clippers should be able to put plenty of points on the scoreboard vs. the Warriors. Their implied team total of 120.0 ranks first on the slate, and the Warriors have allowed 123.8 points per game when playing on the road this season. That’s the second-worst mark in the league.

George is popping in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

Derrick White has been a tremendous role player for the Celtics this season, and he’s provided DFS players with nice value recently. He’s scored at least 37.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute for the year. White is currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $5,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. He’s an excellent salary-saver in a strong matchup vs. the Timberwolves.

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Fast Break

Zach LaVine has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.24 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he remains underpriced at $8,500 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Kings. It’s a fantastic spot – the Kings rank 26th in defensive efficiency – and LaVine’s 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.

If Tim Hardaway Jr. can suit up on Wednesday, he is undoubtedly too cheap at $5,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and THJ has increased his usage rate by +5.6% with Doncic, Irving, and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor this season. He struggled to just 9.4 FanDuel points in his last outing, but he had at least 32.9 in his previous three contests.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Everything I said about George can also be applied to Kawhi Leonard. Like his teammate, Leonard’s workload has increased significantly of late, and he’s played at least 36.8 minutes in each of his past three contests. He’s played more than 38 minutes in two of them, and Leonard has responded with at least 49.0 DraftKings points in all three games.

Leonard got off to a relatively slow start this season, but he’s been basically unstoppable since the All-Star break. He’s averaged 31.0 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.0 assists over his past seven games while shooting 57.4% from the field and 58.3% from 3-point range. He is simply too cheap at $9,000 in a plus-matchup and stands out as arguably the strongest stud play on the slate.

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Value

Donovan Mitchell is expected to return to the lineup for the Cavaliers on Wednesday, but we’re still waiting for the status of Jarrett Allen. If Allen is sidelined, Lamar Stevens can be deployed as a value option at just $3,400 on DraftKings. He’s not the greatest per-minute producer, but he has increased his production to 0.75 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. More importantly, Stevens is projected for 29.5 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.67 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

If Keldon Johnson suits up for the Spurs, he could be a nice contrarian target in tournaments. His role is a major question mark even if he’s active – the Spurs have definitely entered tank mode – but Johnson racked up 46.0 DraftKings points the last time he played. He’s been the Spurs’ top offensive option all season, so he’s underpriced at $6,700 if he handles a full workload.

Malik Beasley owns a Bargain Rating of 92% on FanDuel, and he has plenty of upside at his current price tag. Beasley is a boom-or-bust player, but he has more boom than usual in his range of outcomes vs. the Rockets. His Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.52 is the second-highest mark at the position.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Celtics managed to right the ship after three straight losses last week, picking up back-to-back wins over the Blazers and Hawks. Unfortunately, they suffered another setback in their last game, dropping a winnable game against the lowly Rockets. The Celtics have been arguably the best team in basketball this season, but they’re now three full games behind the Bucks for the top spot in the East.

Jayson Tatum’s production has been a bit up-and-down recently. He’s gone for at least 66.25 DraftKings points in three of his past six games, and he’s scored 51.25 or fewer in the others. Still, Tatum routinely carries one of the largest workloads in basketball – his average of 37.4 minutes per game ranks second in the league – and he’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute. That’s the top mark among Wednesday’s forwards. The Timberwolves are a solid matchup, ranking sixth in the league in pace, and the Celtics’ implied team total ranks second on the slate. Overall, paying up for Tatum makes plenty of sense on a slate with a decent amount of value.

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Value

Maxi Kleber may not be able to help the Mavs much from a scoring perspective, but he’s capable of doing a little bit of everything. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games on DraftKings, and he could be looking at a sizable uptick in minutes if Wood is ruled out. He would become an outstanding value on DraftKings in that scenario given his Bargain Rating of 85%.

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Fast Break

Jarred Vanderbilt is another underpriced member of the Lakers on FanDuel. His $5,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and Vanderbilt has averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He’s been a steady part of the Lakers’ rotation since arriving in LA, and he’s projected for another 28 minutes Wednesday vs. the Rockets.

Xavier Tillman has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.23 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games. His price has barely budged over that time frame, and he’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s still very viable as the team’s lone remaining center.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Rudy Gobert has been questionable for basically every game this season, but it hasn’t stopped him from suiting up on most nights. He’s played in each of the Timberwolves’ past six games, and he’s seen a significant uptick in fantasy production of late. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has two performances with at least 51.0 DraftKings points in his past five games. Gobert was slightly disappointing with just 38.0 DraftKings points Monday vs. the Hawks, but he played just 29.5 minutes in a blowout win.

Ultimately, Gobert has started to look much closer to the player that he was with the Jazz. If that version of Rudy is back, $7,400 is too cheap for a matchup against a Celtics squad playing without Robert Williams.

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Value

Sandro Mamukelashvili is a first-round draft pick in points-per-letter fantasy leagues, but he has a chance to provide value in traditional formats on Wednesday. The Spurs lost Charles Bassey to a knee injury on Tuesday, solidifying Mamukelashvili’s role as the backup center. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should be locked into around 20 minutes vs. the Mavericks. He racked up 20.25 DraftKings points over 21.5 minutes Tuesday vs. the Magic, and similar production is certainly possible Wednesday.

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Fast Break

Domantas Sabonis is coming off a casual 23 points, 17 rebounds, and 15 assists in his last outing, good for 64.9 FanDuel points. If not for Nikola Jokic doing ridiculous things every time he takes the floor, I think we’d have more appreciation for what Sabonis does at the center position. He’s not projected for much ownership vs. the Bulls, and his 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position.

Evan Mobley is another member of the Cavaliers who would benefit from the continued absence of Allen. He gets to play a bit more center when Allen is sidelined, and he racked up 42.2 FanDuel points in just 30.8 minutes on Tuesday. He draws a tough matchup Wednesday vs. the 76ers, but Mobley is underpriced at $8,000 on FanDuel.