Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Ja Morant stands out as the clear top option if paying up in the backcourt. He was stuck in a little bit of a slump recently, but he broke out in a big way Tuesday vs. the Lakers. He racked up 73.5 DraftKings points in just 33.7 minutes thanks to 39 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists.
I wouldn’t expect another triple-double, but he does draw a phenomenal matchup vs. the Rockets. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Grizzlies’ implied team total of 120.25 ranks first on the slate. There is a bit of blowout potential, but the fact that this game is being played in Houston should help slightly.
Additionally, Ja is down to just $9,900 on DraftKings, which is simply too cheap for a player of his caliber. He’s averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s only been priced below $10,000 on six previous occasions this season. Add it all up, and this is the perfect time to target the explosive point guard.
Value
Dennis Schroder is coming off a double-double on Tuesday, and he should continue to see an increased role as a facilitator with the Lakers’ current injury situation. LeBron James is expected to miss the next 2-3 weeks with an injury, while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful vs. the Thunder.
With LeBron, Russell, and Russell Westbrook off the floor this season, Schroder has increased his usage rate by +7.7% and his assist rate by +9.0%. Both are among the largest increases on the team, and it has unsurprisingly had a big impact on his fantasy production. He’s averaged just 0.77 DraftKings points per minute for the year, but that figure increases to 0.92 with all three players off the floor.
Fast Break
Dennis Smith Jr. stands out on DraftKings, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. DSJ has historically been a strong contributor on a per-minute basis, and he’s averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and DSJ has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.33 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Damian Lillard enters the stud conversation on FanDuel, where his $11,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. That may feel like a lot for Lillard, but he has been worth every penny recently. He failed to return value Tuesday vs. the Warriors, but he’s still posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Hornets were dealt a huge blow in their last game, with LaMelo Ball suffering a fractured right ankle. He’s going to miss the remainder of the season, but that could actually be a blessing in disguise. The Hornets aren’t playing for anything this season, and the fact that they’ve won five straight games was actually hurting their lottery chances. As long as Ball is good to go for the start of next year, his absence could work in their favor.
Terry Rozier is going to have to pick up the slack in the interim. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.4% and his assist rate by +2.7% in games without Ball this season, and he’s averaged 37.5 minutes in those contests. The result is an average of 38.92 DraftKings points per game, which would be more than enough at his current price tag. P.J. Washington is also doubtful vs. the Suns, so Rozier could be even more busy than usual.
Value
Malik Beasley is someone who has proven to be a capable scorer when given the opportunity, and he should have plenty of opportunities on Wednesday. He’s racked up at least 31.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he should see a comparable workload vs. the Thunder. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s simply too cheap at $4,500.
Fast Break
We’re still waiting for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s official status, but it would be pretty surprising if he’s in the lineup. As long as he remains out, Isaiah Joe can be deployed as a value option. He’s currently projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Joe also remains underpriced on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Sticking with the Thunder, Jalen Williams has really impressed recently. While other first-year players have hit the dreaded “rookie wall,” Williams has only gotten better. He’s increased his production to 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.79 over his past 10 games. He’s the preferred option for the Thunder on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
While Rozier is a strong target, Gordon Hayward is probably my favorite option for the Hornets on Wednesday. He has been a reliable contributor recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. He’s also displayed an elite ceiling over that stretch, posting games with 49.75 and 58.25 DraftKings points.
Like Rozier, Hayward has also taken on a much larger role in games without Ball this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.7% and his assist rate by +3.4%. Both marks are among the largest increases on the squad. Hayward has already increased his production to 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he could take another step forward vs. the Suns.
Value
Lu Dort is another excellent option for the Thunder on Wednesday. He’s coming off just 18.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, but he was limited to just 21.3 minutes. He still posted a 29.3% usage rate in that outing, and he played at least 31.4 minutes in his previous three games.
He should return to his usual workload vs. the Lakers, and Dort has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with SGA off the floor this season. He’s seen a team-high +5.7% usage bump, resulting in an average of 1.00 DraftKings points per minute.
Fast Break
Lonnie Walker played 22.5 minutes off the bench on Tuesday, and he was extremely active on the offensive end. He posted a 33.0% usage rate, resulting in 21 points and 30.5 DraftKings points. Walker has increased his production to 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay off his $3,300 salary.
Matisse Thybulle spent most of the year buried on the bench in Philadelphia, but he has gotten a new lease on life with the Blazers. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in his past five games, and he even knocked down five 3-pointers Tuesday vs. the Warriors. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but Thybulle will always have some appeal on FanDuel given the premium scoring for defensive statistics.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Bucks are a team that you’re going to have to monitor on Wednesday. They’re playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, so there’s a very real chance that Giannis Antetokounmpo gets the night off. He has missed time recently with injuries, so the team may not want to push him in a game that they might be able to win without him.
However, if Antetokounmpo is active, he’s a prime target on a slate with plenty of value. When Giannis is on the floor, very few players in basketball can match his per-minute upside. He’s been basically unstoppable of late, averaging 1.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he was very impressive in his return to the lineup on Tuesday. He needed just 28.5 minutes to rack up 33 points, 15 boards, four assists, and 59.25 DraftKings points.
If Giannis doesn’t play, Bobby Portis becomes the Bucks’ forward to target. He’s also been extremely impressive recently, averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’d be thrust into a starring role with Antetokounmpo sidelined.
Value
The Pistons remain extremely thin in the frontcourt headed into Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Bulls. Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart will both miss their second straight game, while Isaiah Livers is doubtful after picking up a spot start on Monday.
Wiseman didn’t play quite as much as expected on Monday, but he was extremely efficient in his 26.6 minutes. He racked up 23 points and seven rebounds, resulting in 32.25 DraftKings points. For all of his woes, Wiseman has always been able to put the ball in the basket. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s a great bet to return value once again. His price tag has come up a bit following Monday’s performance, but he still stands out as one of the best values on the slate.
Fast Break
Jaren Jackson Jr. is still prone to the occasional game where he can’t stay on the floor, but he has been much more consistent this season. That has allowed him to average a career-best 37.54 FanDuel points in just 27.3 minutes per game. Jackson has played at least 31.1 minutes in three of his past four contests, and he’s unsurprisingly posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He has plenty of upside vs. the Rockets and is not expected to carry much ownership.
Jarred Vanderbilt is yet another possibility for the Lakers. He’s an outstanding per-minute producer, averaging 1.09 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a few additional minutes with LeBron out of the lineup. He finished with just 18.0 DraftKings points across 28.7 minutes on Tuesday, but he racked up 47.25 DraftKings points in less playing time on Sunday. That’s the type of ceiling he provides at his current price tag.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
When LeBron is out of the lineup, play Anthony Davis. It may be a simple formula, but it sure is effective. Davis reminded everyone of his talent level on Tuesday, racking up 28 points and 19 boards en route to 60.75 DraftKings points. That’s not an outlier, either. Davis has now played in 10 games without LeBron this season, and he’s averaged 55.98 DraftKings points in those contests.
Add a juicy matchup vs. the Thunder and the likely absence of Russell, and Davis stands out as an elite stud target. He probably deserves to be priced at over $11,000, given the Lakers’ injury situation, so take advantage of this price tag while you can.
Editor’s Note — Davis has been ruled out vs. the Thunder. All of the other Lakers’ players listed in this write-up see a significant boost in value.
Value
The Pelicans are another team with a host of injury concerns at the moment. Zion Williamson remains out of the lineup, and he’ll be joined on the sidelines by Jose Alvarado and Larry Nance Jr. on Wednesday. Jonas Valanciunas and Josh Richardson are also questionable, so there’s a chance that the team is significantly shorthanded vs. the Blazers.
Regardless of what happens with Valanciunas, Jaxson Hayes should see a solid handful of minutes. He played 24.8 minutes in the team’s last contest, and Hayes has averaged a respectable 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He should serve as the backup to Valanciunas as a bare minimum, and he could earn some playing time at power forward with Nance sidelined as well.
If Valanciunas is ruled out, there’s a good chance that Hayes moves into the starting lineup. If Willy Hernangomez gets the nod instead, then Hernangomez would become the superior DFS play. Regardless, this is a situation that warrants monitoring.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies remain without starting center Steven Adams, and Xavier Tillman has started most of the games in his absence. He’s been productive as well, recording at least 28.4 FanDuel points in three straight games. As long as he remains in the starting lineup, he’s a solid selection across the industry.
Evan Mobley remains underpriced on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%. The talented young big man had a slow start to his season, but he has turned things around recently. He’s increased his production to 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.29 over his past 10 games.
