NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Jan. 18): Trust in Myles Turner

Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic has been one of the best players in the league seemingly since he stepped on an NBA floor, but he’s taken his game to another level this season. He’s leading the league with a career-high 33.8 points per game, and he’s also racked up 9.0 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. He’s doing virtually everything for the Mavericks, leading the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals per game. Add it all up, and he’s averaged 1.72 DraftKings points per minute.

Doncic is in a great spot for another huge game on Wednesday. He’s taking on the Hawks, who have played at the eighth-fastest pace this season. The Mavericks rank 29th in that department, so this is a massive pace-up spot. The team is currently implied for 117.75 points, which represents a significant increase from their season average of 112.7.

The team is also going to be without Tim Hardaway Jr., so Luka will have to do a bit more than usual. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.6% with Hardaway off the floor this season.

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Value

Reggie Jackson has fallen out of favor for the Clippers recently. He picked up two DNP-CDs in back-to-back games, and he’s racked up 15.4 and 13.9 minutes in his past two outings.

That’s caused his salary to dip to just $3,500 on DraftKings, and the Clippers may have no choice but to break Jackson back out on Wednesday. The team has already ruled out Paul George, while Kawhi Leonard could also sit on the second leg of a back-to-back. He’s yet to play on both legs of a back-to-back all year, so it would be surprising if he is in the lineup. John Wall is also currently injured, and Jackson has increased his usage rate to 26.0% with George, Leonard, and Wall off the floor this season. He still might not approach 30 minutes vs. the Jazz, but Jackson has the potential to be very effective when on the floor.

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Fast Break

LaMelo Ball is another viable stud option at the position, particularly on FanDuel. His $9,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.41 over his past 10 games. He’s scored at least 47.8 FanDuel points in eight of those contests, and his matchup vs. the Rockets is a good one. They’ve allowed the most fantasy points to opposing point guards by a pretty wide margin.

Jose Alvarado has seen a nice spike in value recently. Herb Jones has missed the past three games with a back injury, and Alvarado has responded with an average of 28.6 minutes and 22.3 DraftKings points per game. That includes 33.6 minutes in his last contest, and Jones remains doubtful for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Heat.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Cavaliers are expected to be without Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday, who is currently doubtful with a groin injury. That should allow Darius Garland to take over as the team’s top offensive option. He’s posted a 32% usage rate in four games without Mitchell this season, and he averaged more than 41 DraftKings points per game as the Cavaliers’ lead guard last year.

The Grizzlies represent a tough matchup – they’re first in the league in defensive efficiency – but they also play at the second-fastest pace. The Cavaliers are dead last in that department, so this is one of the biggest pace-up spots possible. That should help make up for the Grizzlies’ defensive prowess.

Garland stands out as an elite target on FanDuel, where he has eligibility at both guard spots and an 85% Bargain Rating.

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Value

Caris LeVert is another excellent target for the Cavaliers if Mitchell is ruled out. He’s moved into the starting lineup whenever one of the Cavs’ top guards has been sidelined, and he’s averaged 33.0 minutes in five games without Mitchell this season. He’s racked up 31.0 DraftKings points in those contests, which would be more than enough to pay off his current salary across the industry.

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Fast Break

Josh Giddey has played some excellent basketball for the Thunder of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.02 over his past 10 games, and he’s racked up at least 51.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four. Giddey also draws one of the best possible matchups vs. the Pacers, who rank fourth in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. OKC is currently implied for 121.25 points, which ranks third on the slate.

On the other side of that matchup, Bennedict Mathurin is a nice buy-low target on FanDuel. He’s struggled in his past two games, but he should continue to benefit from the absence of Tyrese Haliburton. He’s started the Pacers’ past three games, and he’s seen the largest usage bump on the team with Haliburton off the floor.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves continue to list Anthony Edwards as questionable, but he’s been able to play through a hip injury in recent games. It also hasn’t impacted him from a fantasy perspective, with Edwards scoring at least 45.5 DraftKings points in three straight games.

His price has dipped to just $8,700 on Wednesday’s slate, and that’s an excellent number for a matchup vs. the Nuggets. Edwards has been priced as high as $9,500 recently, and the Nuggets have been a poor defensive team for most of the year. They’ve been a bit better in that department of late, but they still rank just 20th in terms of defensive efficiency.

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Value

Norman Powell had a slow start to the year, but he’s turned things around recently. He’s increased his production to 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential for a monster performance given the team’s current injury situation. He’s seen a team-high +6.7% usage bump with George, Leonard, and Wall off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.09 FanDuel points per minute. Powell is currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he can do a lot of damage with that much playing time.

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Fast Break

R.J. Barrett is coming off 49.2 minutes in the Knicks’ last game, an overtime loss to the Raptors. That means Barrett played more than 44 minutes in regulation, and he has carried one of the largest workloads in basketball this season. He hasn’t been quite as effective as he was last year, but it’s hard to ignore someone with the potential for more than 40 minutes of playing time.

Naji Marshall finally disappointed in his last game, but he should still provide value with Jones, Zion Williamson, and Brandon Ingram sidelined. He played nearly 36 minutes in his last contest, and he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his six previous games on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Myles Turner has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, and I would recommend taking advantage. Power forward is one of the weaker positions on this slate, and Turner has been an absolute beast recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games on FanDuel, and he’s racked up at least 49.1 FanDuel points in four of them. That includes performances of 52.8 and 53.6 FanDuel points in his past two contests.

He’s set up for another huge performance on Wednesday. The Thunder have struggled mightily against opposing big men this season, allowing the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to opposing centers. As long as Turner gets to his usual minute allotment, he should crush in this spot.

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Value

Robert Covington might be the best pure value on the slate. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points quickly thanks to his defensive prowess, and he’s increased his production to 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute with George, Leonard, and Wall off the floor this season, and he should see a bump in playing time if all three players are sidelined on Wednesday. Covington has played at least 20 minutes in nine games this season, and he’s averaged 21.86 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool). You’ll gladly take that at $3,600.

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Fast Break

The top implied team total of the day belongs to the Kings. They’re taking on the Lakers, and Domantas Sabonis should be able to find success in that matchup. They’ve allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers, and Sabonis tallied 48.9 FanDuel points in his last matchup vs. LA. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games on FanDuel, and his $10,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Evan Mobley is down to $6,100 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 89%, and he’s another player who should benefit from the absence of Mitchell. He’s averaged 34.8 minutes in five games without Mitchell this season, and he’s responded with 34.15 DraftKings points in those contests.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

The Hornets and Rockets will square off Wednesday in a matchup between a stoppable force and a moveable object. These have been the two worst teams in basketball this season, posting a combined 21-68 record. Both teams play fast and struggle on defense, so this game does have the potential to be fantasy-friendly. The Hornets are currently implied for 120.0 points, which is the fifth-highest mark on the slate.

Mason Plumlee has been one of the team’s lone bright spots. He’s been an absolute monster of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.30 over his past 10 games. He has at least 30.0 DraftKings points in 10 of his past 11 games, and he’s had at least 42.5 DraftKings points in five of them. He should be able to do some serious damage vs. the Rockets, who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

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Value

Kelly Olynyk remains out with an ankle injury, and we can continue to target Kessler for as long as he is sidelined. He’s done extremely well in Olynyk’s absence, racking up at least 37.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and his playing time is trending in the right direction. Kessler has played at least 31 minutes in his past two contests, and he’s increased his production to 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Clippers aren’t a great matchup, but Kessler remains way underpriced for his current role.

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Fast Break

Nikola Jokic continues to post eye-popping stat lines on a nightly basis. He went off for 36 points, 12 boards, and 10 assists Tuesday vs. the Blazers, resulting in 73.0 DraftKings points. He’s reached the point where he deserves consideration on every slate regardless of the opponent. There’s also a chance that the Nuggets could rest someone on the second leg of a back-to-back, so Jokic might need to carry an even larger workload than usual.

Jarrett Allen has seen a team-high +5.2% usage bump in games without Mitchell this season. He’s also underpriced at $6,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 vs. the Grizzlies.