Wednesday features a nine-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Wednesday’s slate features nine games to choose from, but to be honest, there aren’t a ton of teams popping as values. The Heat are an exception. They’re dealing with a few key injuries, and both Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo have already been ruled out. They also draw an elite matchup vs. the Pacers, who rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Heat have played at one of the slowest paces this season, so this is one of the biggest pace-up spots possible.
Tyler Herro stands out as one of their top options. He’s played at least 38.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s racked up at least 41.25 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s also been an excellent source of value in seven games without Lowry this season, averaging just under 40 DraftKings points per game. Overall, he’s one of the strongest backcourt options on the slate.
Value
Gabe Vincent is not the most appealing DFS option from a per-minute perspective. He’s averaged a pedestrian 0.71 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he should be able to return value through sheer volume on Wednesday. He logged more than 34 minutes with Lowry and Oladipo out of the lineup on Saturday, and it’s hard to find someone with so much playing time upside at such a cheap salary.
Vincent wasn’t super productive in his last outing, finishing with just 17.75 DraftKings points. However, he has plenty of room for improvement moving forward. Even with that poor performance factored in, Vincent has still averaged 29.08 DraftKings points per game in six games without Lowry this season. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Pacers, and this is the perfect spot for him to bounce back.
Fast Break
Anfernee Simons has had some big performances of late, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.70 over his past 10 games. That said, his price tag has actually decreased over that time frame. His $6,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%, and the Warriors represent a solid matchup. They’ve played at the fastest pace in the league this season, and the Blazers’ implied team total ranks fifth on the slate.
Mike Conley is another potential source of value at point guard. He’s been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.17 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his salary has remained very reasonable across the industry. His matchup vs. the Timberwolves also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.12.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jordan Poole is coming off 46.0 DKFP in his last outing, and he did it in just 29.3 minutes. The Warriors were able to make quick work of the Thunder, and Poole was extremely efficient with his playing time.
With Steph Curry still sidelined, Poole is simply too cheap at $7,100. He’s seen a +6.1% usage bump in 16 games without Curry this season, resulting in an average of 37.77 DraftKings points per game. He should see closer to 36 minutes if Wednesday’s game vs. the Blazers is more competitive, and he has the potential to do plenty of damage with that much playing time.
Value
The Spurs are going to remain extremely shorthanded on Wednesday. Tre Jones, Devin Vassell, and Romeo Langford all remain out of the lineup, while Keldon Johnson is questionable.
That leaves Josh Richardson as one of the team’s top offensive options. He’s been excellent for DFS players recently, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a nice boost in value with Jones and Vassell off the floor. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.5% and his assist rate by +3.3% in that scenario, giving him even more per-minute upside than usual. Richardson is also projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models, making him an outstanding option at $5,600.
Fast Break
The Raptors are going to be an important team to monitor. They are potential sellers before Thursday’s trade deadline, and guys like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby have the potential to be on the move. If any of those guys are out of the lineup on Wednesday, Gary Trent Jr. would be a huge beneficiary. He would be particularly valuable on FanDuel, where his $6,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.
Caleb Martin is another potential option for the Heat. He should see plenty of minutes given the team’s injury situation, and he’s projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Martin is affordable at $4,800 on FanDuel, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.48 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jimmy Butler is another potential stud option to consider for the Heat. He’s not that much more expensive than Herro, and he’s capable of dominating games in a variety of ways. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.4% in games without Lowry, and he’s also a threat as a distributor and on the boards.
Butler has also been priced down to $8,100, which is historically a very low number for him. He’s been priced at $8,500 or less on just nine previous occasions this season, including his most recent contest. He racked up 49.0 DraftKings points in that outing against a solid Bucks team, and there’s no reason he can’t duplicate those results vs. the Pacers.
Value
Can I interest you in another member of the Heat? Haywood Highsmith racked up 30.8 minutes in the team’s last game, and he should see a similar workload on Wednesday. He’s not the best per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute this season – but that’s a ton of playing time for someone priced at just $3,300. He should be able to return value through sheer volume, and he’s eligible at both forward spots.
Fast Break
Lauri Markkanen has been underpriced on FanDuel for most of the year, and that remains true on Wednesday. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.93 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. His 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and he has the third highest ceiling as well.
Anthony Edwards is another pay-up option on FanDuel. He’s arguably an even better value than Markkanen – he owns a Bargain Rating of 97% – and he’s been a solid source of production with Karl-Anthony Towns out of the lineup. His matchup vs. the Jazz also comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.79.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Draymond Green is not the type of player who is going to benefit from a usage perspective with Curry out of the lineup. However, it does give him a bit more upside in other areas.
Green has also been an excellent value overall of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games, including each of his past four. He went off for 46.25 DraftKings points two games ago, falling one rebound and one assist shy of a triple-double. He followed that up with 34.5 DraftKings points in just 27.9 minutes in his last contest, so Green has flashed plenty of per-minute upside recently. The Blazers aren’t the best matchup for big men, but they are playing without starting center Jusuf Nurkic. That makes them a bit more appealing than they look on paper.
Value
The Jazz have played a supersized lineup since Kelly Olynyk returned from injury, with Olynyk joining Lauri Markkanen and Walker Kessler in the starting lineup. That gives them three players at 6’11” or taller in the frontcourt.
Olynyk was limited in his first two games back, but the team has ramped up his minutes over his last two contests. He’s logged 28.2 and 29.9 minutes, and he’s scored at least 23.0 DraftKings points in both contests. Olynyk has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he should continue to thrive without around 30 minutes of playing time. If Jarred Vanderbilt (questionable) is ruled out once again, there should be more than enough minutes to go around for the Jazz’s remaining big men.
Fast Break
Chris Boucher has posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.06 over his past 10 games, and his role has steadily increased of late. He’s coming off 27.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s averaged a stout 1.17 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, so he’s another potential target in an elite matchup vs. the Spurs.
Jonathan Kuminga is another potential value option at the position. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 25 minutes in our NBA Models.
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NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Most people are not looking to target Mason Plumlee on most slates, which has caused him to be undervalued for most of the year. He’s an excellent per-minute producer, averaging 1.22 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s been locked into 30-32 minutes on most nights. That’s a great formula for production, and Plumlee has responded with a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his past 15 games.
That said, Plumlee’s price tag has remained stagnant, and he draws a strong matchup Wednesday vs. the Wizards. They allow the 11th-most points in the paint per game, and Plumlee owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.65 on DraftKings. As long as he gets to his usual 30 minutes, there’s no reason he should fail in this spot.
Value
Walker Kessler’s price tag has dipped to $5,700 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s not playing quite as many minutes as he did when Olynyk was sidelined, but he’s still played at least 25.1 minutes in three of four games since Olynyk returned. That’s more than enough playing time for Kessler to return value. He’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s done his best Rudy Gobert impression for most of the season. He’s averaged 10.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 2.4 blocks in 18 games as a member of the starting unit, and he’s done it in just 25.8 minutes per game.
The fact that the Jazz were able to get this guy, Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, four additional first-round picks, and one pick swap in exchange for Gobert is ridiculous. It’s obviously early, but with Kessler thriving and Gobert struggling in Minnesota, this could go down as an all-time heist.
Fast Break
With Nurkic out of the lineup, Drew Eubanks should continue to see a few additional minutes. He’s played at least 25.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His matchup vs. the Warriors also comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.86 on DraftKings.
There’s a chance that Siakam sits on Wednesday, but if he’s in the lineup, he’s an interesting buy-low target on FanDuel. His $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Siakam has averaged a Plus/Minus of +10.36 with a comparable salary this season.
