NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Feb. 15): Bulls Provide Plenty of Value

Wednesday features a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It has been a bit of a lost season for LaMelo Ball. He’s been in and out of the lineup with injuries, and the Hornets have struggled mightily in his absence. They currently own the fourth-worst record in the NBA, and with the three worst teams all getting the best shot at Victor Wembanyama, don’t be surprised if Melo gets an early vacation.

Still, he’s in the lineup at the moment, and he’s racked up at least 47.8 FanDuel points in five of his past six games. That gives him plenty of appeal in what is expected to be an outstanding fantasy environment. Ball also represents one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

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Value

No one can turn trash into treasure better than the Spurs. They acquired Josh Richardson at the trade deadline last season after a dismal campaign with the Celtics. The Spurs were able to get Richardson back to playing at an excellent level, and they cashed him in this season. They turned Richardson into Devonte’ Graham and four second-round picks, which is the most Spursy move possible.

Don’t be surprised if Graham is their next successful reclamation projection. He has thrived in his first three games with his new team, racking up 42.25, 26.5, and 29.75 DraftKings points. With Tre Jones and Romeo Langford still sidelined, Graham should continue to play plenty of minutes for the shorthanded Spurs backcourt. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a great bet to pay off his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Ayo Dosunmu is currently projected for 36 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone priced at just $4,400 on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.92 (per the Trends tool). Dosunmu isn’t the greatest per-minute producer – he’s averaged 0.68 FanDuel points per minute this season – but he’s simply too cheap to pass up in a strong matchup vs. the Pacers.

Gabe Vincent should continue to handle most of the point guard minutes for the Heat. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 26.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Vincent doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, but he’s a solid bet to return value vs. the Nets.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Most of Wednesday’s squads will play their final game before the All-Star break, with the Bulls being the lone exception. They’re facing the Pacers on the front leg of a back-to-back, so they’re going to be in action on Thursday as well. It’s a good matchup, with the Pacers ranking tied for fourth in pace and 25th in defensive efficiency.

The Bulls will also be without DeMar DeRozan on Wednesday, who has been ruled out with a thigh strain. That’s going to open up some additional opportunities for Zach LaVine. He’s taken a backseat to DeRozan for most of the year, but LaVine has increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.5% with DeRozan off the floor. He’s also averaged just under 40 minutes in four full games without DeRozan, and he can do plenty of damage with that much playing time vs. the Pacers.

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Value

Alex Caruso is also questionable for the Bulls, but he would be another excellent value option if he’s able to suit up. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes as Dosunmu, but he makes up for it with superior efficiency. He’s increased his production to 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s averaged 26.0 DraftKings points in four games without DeRozan. Caruso is way too cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

Desmond Bane has blossomed into an excellent NBA player in his third professional season. He’s averaging a career-high 21.4 points per game, and he’s racked up 37.07 DraftKings points per game. Those numbers would likely be higher if not for an injury that cost him 17 games in November and December. He was limited upon his return to the lineup, but he has started to spread his wings again recently. He’s averaged 33.3 minutes over his past four contests, and he’s racked up at least 38.5 DraftKings points each. Bane should be able to keep things rolling Wednesday vs. the Jazz. Utah has struggled on the defensive end this season, and the Grizzlies are currently implied for a massive 124.25 points.

Jalen Williams has come on strong for the Thunder in recent games. The rookie has racked up at least 32.8 minutes in three straight contests, and he’s scored at least 34.8 FanDuel points in each. He’s played at least 39.2 minutes in two of those outings, and he’s responded with 44.4 and 54.4 FanDuel points. That gives him plenty of upside at $6,000, especially against a Rockets’ side that ranks 28th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

The game between the Spurs and Hornets has multiple appealing options on both sides. Both teams play fast and struggle defensively, and the total currently sits at 243.5 points. That’s the top mark on the slate.

Keldon Johnson has been the Spurs’ top offensive option this season, and while his efficiency has taken a hit in that role, it has led to some strong fantasy performances. His price tag has also come way down over the past month after peaking at $7,500. Overall, Johnson has been priced below $7,000 in just 12 previous games this season, and he’s averaged 34.38 DraftKings points in those contests. Add in an elite matchup, and he makes tons of sense as a buy-low target.

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Value

The Rockets are still playing without Kevin Porter Jr., and they traded away Eric Gordon before the deadline. That has allowed Jae’Sean Tate to move into the starting lineup and take on a more prominent role. He’s still playing limited minutes, but he’s averaged 24.6 minutes over his past three games. Tate has historically been the type of player who can average more than a fantasy point per minute, so that’s enough to make him viable at $3,600. The Thunder have played at one of the fastest paces this season, so Tate stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at forward.

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Fast Break

The Celtics are going to be without Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart again on Wednesday, and they could be even thinner than they were on Tuesday. Derrick White is also expected to be listed as questionable, and he was one of five players who saw at least 39 minutes in an overtime loss to the Bucks. Sam Hauser was another one of those options, so his role should be extremely secure vs. the Pistons. He racked up 32.75 DraftKings points in his 39 minutes, so he provides a solid floor and ceiling at $4,600.

Gordon Hayward has posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games on FanDuel, and he’s coming off a whopping 49.0 FanDuel points in his last outing. He remains extremely affordable at $5,600, so he has plenty of appeal in what is expected to be the best fantasy game of the day.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Heat are another team with an abundance of injuries at the moment. Kyle Lowry remains out with a long-term injury, while Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo will join him on the sidelines on Wednesday. That leaves the team without three of their top ball handlers.

Jimmy Butler is going to have to pick up the slack in their absence. He’s increased his usage rate (+1.0%), assist rate (+7.6%), and rebound rate (+3.9%) with all three players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.41 DraftKings points per minute. In his only full game without Lowry, Herro, and Oladipo this season, Butler racked up 49.75 DraftKings points in 32.3 minutes. That would be more than enough to pay off his current price tag.

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Value

Kelly Olynyk has dual PF/C eligibility across the industry, and I suggest taking advantage of that on Wednesday. In general, power forward is a much weaker position than center, and Olynyk stands out as one of the better options at both positions. He’s coming off 39.0 DraftKings points in 31.4 minutes on Monday, and he now has at least 39.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three games. With Jarred Vanderbilt now in Los Angeles, there are plenty of opportunities for Olynyk, Lauri Markkanen, and Walker Kessler in Utah’s frontcourt. Markkanen has also been downgraded to questionable, so there’s a chance Olynyk could play even more than usual.

This game also features a 240.0-point total, so there are plenty of reasons to like Olynyk on Wednesday.

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Fast Break

Tari Eason is worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Like Tate, he’s seen a few additional minutes recently, and he’s currently projected for 21 minutes in our NBA Models. Eason has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to make an impact.

Julius Randle is a worthy stud option on FanDuel. His 12 Pro Trends rank second at the position, while his $9,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%. Randle has also turned in back-to-back subpar games, so his ownership could be a bit lower than usual.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Paying up for Nikola Jokic is always worth considering at center, but I’m taking a slight discount with the other Nikola on Wednesday. Like LaVine, Nikola Vucevic should be one of the biggest beneficiaries from DeRozan’s absence. He’s seen a team-high +4.7% usage bump in four full games without DeRozan this season, and he’s averaged 38.5 minutes in those contests. He’s responded with a whopping 53.38 DraftKings points per game.

The Pacers also stand out as an excellent matchup for Vucevic. They’ve allowed the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing centers this season, so Vucevic has far more upside than usual.

Vucevic is viable across the industry, but he’s a downright steal on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,600, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Value

Zach Collins is another outstanding target for the Spurs in this expected up-tempo matchup. With Jakob Poeltl now back in Toronto, the coast is clear for Collins to serve as the team’s top center option. He’s played at least 31.6 minutes in two of their past three games, with the lone exception being a blowout loss to the Hawks. Collins has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of taking advantage of a larger workload.

Opposing centers have also feasted on the Hornets this season. They’ve allowed the second-most DraftKings points per game to the position, so Collins is a great bet to return value. He’s massively underpriced at just $5,100.

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Fast Break

The Spurs are the only team that has allowed more fantasy points per game to opposing centers than the Hornets. That makes Mark Williams an appealing option. Williams has played at least 29.7 minutes in two of three games since the team traded away Mason Plumlee, and he’s averaged an elite 1.24 FanDuel points per minute this season. Williams has gotten more expensive across the industry but is still underpriced, all things considered.

If you like targeting stud centers at minimal ownership, Jokic and Joel Embiid both fit the description on Wednesday. Both players are projected to have less than 6% ownership on DraftKings, but both players own top-five ceiling projections in our NBA Models. Jokic leads the way from a ceiling standpoint, while Embiid’s is a bit lower than usual in a tough spot vs. the Cavaliers.