NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 7): Jonathan Kuminga is a Lock

Wednesday features an 11-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves are still playing without Karl-Anthony Towns, and D’Angelo Russell has been one of the primary beneficiaries of his absence. He’s racked up at least 32.0 DraftKings points in six straight games, and he’s had at least 40.75 in his past two.

Russell should be able to keep the fantasy production flowing Wednesday vs. the Pacers. Indiana has been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, ranking first in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency. Minnesota also plays at the third-fastest pace, so this game should feature plenty of possessions. The total on this game sits at 237.5 points, while the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 121.25 is tied for the top mark on the slate.

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Value

The Warriors’ injury report is the big story on Wednesday. They’ve already ruled out Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green, leaving the team without three of their top players.

That’s going to open up plenty of opportunities for the rest of the roster, but Jordan Poole figures to be the big winner. He will almost certainly move into the Warriors’ starting lineup, and he’s seen a +7.7% usage rate bump with Curry and Wiggins off the floor. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, so he’s undoubtedly underpriced at $6,500.

Additionally, the Jazz represent a strong matchup. Their defense has been torn to shreds in recent weeks, and they’re down to 25th in defensive efficiency for the year.

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Fast Break

Ja Morant missed Monday’s matchup vs. the Heat, but he is not currently listed on the team’s injury report. As long as he’s back in the lineup, he’s simply too cheap at $9,600 on FanDuel. He owns a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Morant has averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute in games without Desmond Bane this season.

Donte DiVincenzo is another potential value option for the Warriors. He’s increased his production to 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should pick up a few additional minutes with the team shorthanded on Wednesday.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

DeMar DeRozan has posted a negative Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, but he’s still been an outstanding investment for DFS players of late. He owns an average Plus/Minus of +8.32 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and his price tag has decreased to just $8,200 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Wizards. He owns a Bargain Rating of 81% on FanDuel, where he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends.

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Value

The Wizards are another team dealing with a big injury. Bradley Beal will miss at least the next three games, and he’s been one of the team’s top facilitators this season. He ranks second on the team with a 25.2% assist rate, while his 26.6% usage rate ranks third.

Will Barton is someone who can help pick up the slack. He’s increased his usage rate (+1.6%), assist rate (+2.5%), and rebound rate (+1.0%) with Beal off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.81 DraftKings points per minute. He has a chance to get to 30 minutes vs. the Bulls, so he’s an excellent value at just $3,700.

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Fast Break

Klay Thompson is another potential target for the Warriors. He hasn’t seen the same boost in production with Curry and Wiggins off the floor this season, but it’s over a pretty small sample size. He should see a bump in usage on Wednesday, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as Poole. His a particularly strong option on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.

The Pacers’ injury report is absolutely loaded at the moment, with Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and T.J. McConnell all listed as questionable. If Haliburton and McConnell are ruled out, we can definitely go back to Andrew Nembhard. He has thrived as the team’s primary facilitator of late, racking up at least 37.0 DraftKings points in three straight games.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kyle Kuzma is another strong option for the Wizards on Wednesday. He’s seen the biggest usage bump on the squad with Beal off the floor this season, and he’s already been playing well of late. He’s averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 44.25 DraftKings points in five of his past seven games.

Kuzma stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $7,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

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Value

With Towns sidelined, Kyle Anderson should continue to provide outstanding value. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.57 on DraftKings in back-to-back games, and he’s historically been a fantastic option when expected to play big minutes. He’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and Anderson has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.71 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

The Hornets are another team with plenty of minutes available at the moment. Jalen McDaniels has taken on a larger role of late, playing at least 33 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s scored at least 29.0 DraftKings points in each, and he’s averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s underpriced across the industry for his current role.

Kawhi Leonard posted a positive Plus/Minus for the first time all year in his last outing. He posted a season high in both minutes and usage, and he finished with 25.2 FanDuel points vs. the Hornets. He should continue to see a few additional opportunities with Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, and John Wall out of the lineup, and his $5,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Pascal Siakam is ready to get back to work. He played limited minutes in his first four games following an injury, but he was up to 38.7 minutes in his last contest. Nick Nurse routinely gives Siakam one of the biggest workloads in basketball, so it’s not surprising that he’s back to playing nearly 40 minutes per game.

Before getting hurt, Siakam appeared poised for a career year. He was averaging 24.8 points, 9.3 boards, and 7.7 assists per game, and he scored at least 47.0 DraftKings points in seven of nine contests. Overall, Siakam has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute this season, which trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo among Wednesday’s forwards.

The Raptors are in a solid spot Wednesday vs. the Lakers. LA has slowed down a bit of late, but they still rank 12th in the league in pace. The Raptors are currently implied for 119.75 points, which represents a dramatic increase from their season average of 110.8.

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Value

Jonathan Kuminga has not made the second-year leap that the Warriors were hoping for, and he’s played a pretty minor role for the team when healthy. Of course, the team is far from healthy at the moment, so he should be thrust into more responsibility on Wednesday.

Kuminga was an elite per-minute producer last season, and he has unsurprisingly thrived when given the opportunity to play big minutes. He’s logged at least 24 minutes in 23 career games, and he’s averaged 30.47 DraftKings points in those contests. He has the potential to play closer to 30 minutes on Wednesday, making him nearly impossible to fade at $3,400.

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Fast Break

The Hawks are currently without their top two power forwards in John Collins and De’Andre Hunter, opening up some additional playing time for Jalen Johnson. He’s played at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s recorded at least 22.75 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s still too cheap at $4,100 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 80%.

Kristaps Porzingis has been on a hot streak recently, increasing his production to 1.35 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.91 over his past 10 games, and his value only figures to increase with Beal out of the lineup.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

There are obviously more expensive centers on Wednesday’s slate, but Nicolas Claxton stands out as one of the best per-dollar options at the position. He’s returned positive value in six of his past seven games, yet his salary has stayed pretty stagnant. His minutes are also more secure with Ben Simmons currently sidelined, and he’s coming off nearly 38 minutes in his last outing. Claxton has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do some serious damage with that much playing time in a good matchup vs. the Hornets.

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Value

As much as I like Claxton, Mitchell Robinson is my favorite center option on the slate. His minutes can vary from night to night, but he has played at least 33 minutes in two of his past three games. If he can get back to that threshold Wednesday vs. the Hawks, he has the potential for a huge performance. The Hawks allow the fifth-most points in the paint per game, which is where Robinson does all of his damage. They’re also a below-average rebounding team, and they play at the seventh-fastest pace. The Knicks rank ninth in pace this season, so this game has some sneaky shootout appeal.

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Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic draws one of the best possible matchups for a center on Wednesday. He’s taking on the Wizards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2 on DraftKings. Vucevic hasn’t been particularly effective of late, averaging just 1.06 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but this feels like a strong buy-low opportunity.

Mason Plumlee has been an excellent source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.11 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s scored at least 27.4 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s eclipsed 35 FanDuel points in two of them. He also owns a strong matchup vs. the Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2.