NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 28): Buy Low on Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The matchup between the Nuggets and Kings was a bit disappointing on Tuesday. The total was listed at more than 240 points, but the two teams combined for just 219. The total for the rematch on Wednesday has dropped to 236 points, but that’s still the top mark on the slate.

Jamal Murray is often overlooked playing alongside the back-to-back MVP, but he deserves some attention for his recent play. He’s racked up at least 46.75 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 58.5 DraftKings points vs. the Blazers. Murray is not known as a traditional point guard, but he’s averaging a career-best 5.7 assists per game this season. That number has been even higher of late, with Murray averaging 7.5 dimes over his past eight contests. Murray can score the ball with the best of them, so if he can continue to provide some value in the peripheral categories, he stands out as an excellent value at his current price tag.

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Value

The injury to Cade Cunningham has allowed Killian Hayes to flourish in his third professional season. He’s been an outstanding source of fantasy production of late, increasing his output to 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He logged 38.8 minutes in his last contest, and he’s scored at least 35.5 FanDuel points in back-to-back games.

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Fast Break

Jordan Poole is going to continue to have to carry the load for the Warriors, and he could be asked to do even more than usual on Wednesday. The team is playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means they will almost certainly be without Klay Thompson. Poole has already posted a usage rate of at least 40.4% in four of his past five games, and he could approach that level again on Wednesday. Poole is too cheap at $7,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Duane Washington Jr. got the chance to play 24.3 minutes on Tuesday, and he did not disappoint. He racked up 46.0 DraftKings points at a minimum price tag, making him one of the best per-dollar values of the entire season. He should see a similar role on Wednesday, and he clearly has upside at $3,200.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Kyrie Irving may be a complete headache off the basketball court, but don’t forget that he’s one of the most talented scorers in the league. He’s put his scoring prowess on display a lot recently, averaging 30.0 points over his past seven contests. That has unsurprisingly led to excellent fantasy numbers, with Irving scoring at least 44.25 DraftKings in six of those contests.

Irving also takes the floor in an excellent spot on Wednesday. The Hawks have played at an above-average pace this season, and the Nets are currently implied for a slate-high 120.75 points. The Nets have rattled off nine straight wins, and if Kyrie keeps playing like this, they’re a serious threat to win the title.

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Value

The Pistons are once again one of the worst teams in basketball, but they have a few things working for them. They’re going to be in the race for Victor Wembanyama, they’re getting plenty of minutes for their promising young players, and they have a few veterans to sell off before the trade deadline.

Alec Burks is one of those veterans. He’s played well in limited minutes this season, averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per minute, and he racked up 32.25 DraftKings points across 28.2 minutes on Monday. There’s no guarantee he sees that many minutes again on Wednesday, but he doesn’t need to at just $3,800. He’s a good bet to return value.

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Fast Break

Like Poole, Donte DiVincenzo is going to have to do a bit more than usual for the Warriors on Wednesday. He’s already been excellent of late, averaging 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for just over 33 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s another excellent value at just $6,100 on FanDuel.

DeMar DeRozan leads all players on FanDuel with 14 Pro Trends. That’s a big number, and players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.76 (per the Trends tool). DeRozan also smashed in his first matchup with the Bucks this season, racking up 59.8 FanDuel points.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has had another excellent season, but unfortunately, he’s been unplayable in fantasy for a while now. He’s been priced up above $12,000, which has made it extremely difficult for him to return value. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -9.18 over his past 10 contests on DraftKings, so he has struggled to provide any fantasy value.

Fortunately, Antetokounmpo’s salary is back to a reasonable $11,500 for Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Bulls. Giannis can still rack up fantasy points like very few players can, averaging 1.69 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Bulls have been a mediocre defense squad, and they rank 21st in team rebound rate. Giannis should also benefit from the continued absence of Khris Middleton, so this is a great opportunity to buy low on one of the best producers in fantasy.

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Value

Vlatko Cancar is going to need a bit of help to be relevant on this slate, but if it happens, he’s going to be tough to ignore at the absolute minimum. He played 29.5 minutes Tuesday with Aaron Gordon and Bruce Brown sidelined, and it’s possible that both players are out again on the second leg of a back-to-back. Cancar has averaged a respectable 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should provide value if he sees a similar workload on Wednesday.

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Fast Break

Jonathan Kuminga is coming off 30.2 FanDuel points over 22.6 minutes in his last outing. The minutes haven’t always been there this season, but he has averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for just under 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and if he reaches that figure, he’ll have a good chance at paying off his $4,500 salary.

Saddiq Bey has not been the same player this season, but his price tag has dipped to just $3,700 on DraftKings. That makes him a nice buy-low target. Bey’s price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s still averaged a solid 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He racked up 27.0 DraftKings points over 26.2 minutes in his last outing, and he’s expected to see a similar workload on Wednesday.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Ben Simmons has had an up-and-down season in his first year with the Nets. He came out of the gates slowly, and right as he was starting to heat up, he went down with an injury. However, he’s played in each of the team’s past six games, and he finished with 34.3 minutes in their last contest.

As long as Simmons is back to playing 30+ minutes, he deserves to be much more expensive. Simmons has increased his production to 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s capable of stuffing the stat sheet. He still has some deficiencies as a scorer, but a double-double or triple-double is always in play.

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Value

Pat Connaughton put together a strong performance on Christmas, finishing with 27.3 FanDuel points in 29.5 minutes. He’s projected for another 29.1 minutes on Wednesday, which is not surprising with Middleton out of the lineup. He’s also very affordable at $3,900 on FanDuel, and Connaughton has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.35 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Kristaps Porzingis has turned in some big games for the Wizards of late, and there’s a chance that the team will be without Bradley Beal on Wednesday. He’s currently listed as questionable, and Porzingis has increased his usage rate by +2.9 with Beal off the floor. The Suns also stand out as a strong matchup, giving Porzingis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +8.66 on FanDuel.

Isaiah Stewart saw a nice spike in playing time with Marvin Bagley out of the lineup on Monday. He logged more than 39.7 minutes, and he responded with 38.75 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect quite that many minutes on Wednesday, but 30+ is certainly doable. Stewart has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, so that should be more than enough to pay off his $4,800 price tag.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

We may never see another player like Nikola Jokic. There is nothing that he can’t do on a basketball court. He’s capable of doing all the typical big man stuff – he’s averaged 25.3 points and 11.0 rebounds per game – but he’s also one of the best passers in basketball. He’s averaged 9.5 assists per game this season, which ranks third in the league. When he puts it all together in the same game, no one in the league can match his upside.

Jokic has been so good recently that Tuesday’s stat line of 20 points, 11 assists, and nine rebounds actually felt disappointing. He finished with “just” 51.25 DraftKings points, which was his lowest output in his past nine games.

Still, that gives Jokic one of the safest floors in fantasy, and we know all about his ceiling. He has four games with at least 80.5 DraftKings points in that stretch, and he can definitely reach that level vs. the Kings. They rank eighth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 119.25 ranks third on the slate.

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Value

As good as Jokic is, there are some very strong value options at center on Wednesday. It starts with Onyeka Okongwu, who should continue to see the bulk of the center minutes with Clint Capela sidelined. Okongwu has increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but unfortunately, foul trouble has limited him to less than 21 minutes in back-to-back games. He has the potential to play more than 30 minutes on Wednesday if he can avoid hacking everything that moves, making him one of the best values of the day at $5,200.

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Fast Break

Jock Landale drew his first start of the year for the Suns on Tuesday, and he ultimately finished with 23.7 minutes. He wasn’t super productive, scoring 20.25 DraftKings points, but he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s projected for a few additional minutes on Wednesday, so he’s a very appealing target at just $4,000.

Thomas Bryant ruined a lot of people’s lineups on Christmas, but he bounced back with 37.5 FanDuel points on Tuesday. He’s averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute this season, so that kind of production is closer to what we can expect moving forward. He remains a massive value on FanDuel, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.