NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Dec. 21): Jalen Duren, Rebound Machine

Wednesday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Lakers are going to be without Anthony Davis for at least a month, which means the rest of the roster is going to have to step up in his absence. Russell Westbrook figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries. He’s increased his usage rate by +3.2% with Davis off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.22 DraftKings points per minute.

Westbrook has gotten plenty of hate on social media in recent years – most of it deserved – but he remains an extremely effective fantasy producer. He’s scored at least 53.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, and while he failed to return value in his last contest, he played just 22.9 minutes. Westbrook missed Monday’s matchup vs. the Suns due to left foot soreness, so it’s possible that’s the reason for the reduced minute count.

Westbrook is questionable vs. the Kings, but it’s an elite matchup if he’s able to suit up. They rank fifth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency, and the total on that game sits at a massive 240 points.

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Value

Alex Caruso isn’t the most exciting DFS option on Wednesday, but he stands out as one of the best pure values in the backcourt. He’s returned positive value in five of his past seven games, including 24.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He did that in just 22.6 minutes, and he has the potential for a few additional minutes on Wednesday. The team could be without Javonte Green and Derrick Jones Jr., while Ayo Dosunmu played just 5.4 minutes in their last contest. If Dosunmu continues to slip out of the rotation, Caruso should be able to provide nice value at his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Markelle Fultz has played extremely well since returning to the lineup for the Magic. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s gone for at least 47.0 DraftKings points in two of those contests, and his $5,700 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. That makes him an elite option vs. the Rockets, who rank tied for 27th in defensive efficiency.

LaMelo Ball stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus all four games since returning to the lineup, and he’s scored at least 45.0 FanDuel points in his past two contests.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jordan Poole has gotten priced up across the industry, but he remains one of the best pure values in the backcourt. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 40.4% in back-to-back games, and he racked up 55.75 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Raptors. He wasn’t nearly as good Tuesday vs. the Knicks, but he played just 29 minutes in a blowout loss.

With Klay Thompson set to rest on the second leg of a back-to-back, Poole should be looking at another monster workload vs. the Nets. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +6.4% with Thompson, Steph Curry, and Andrew Wiggins off the floor, so he has elite upside if this game stays competitive. There’s always going to be some blowout risk with the Warriors when Curry isn’t playing – they own a brutal Net Rating with Curry off the floor this season – but the Nets haven’t blown out a ton of teams this season. They’re riding a six-game win streak, but only one of those wins has been by more than six points.

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Value

Jaden Ivey has been pretty uninspiring since Cade Cunningham went down with an injury, but he erupted for 43.0 DraftKings points in his last contest. He’s due for some regression as a shooter – he was 10-14 from the field in that outing – but he still stands out as an excellent value. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially pay off his $4,800 salary.

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Fast Break

Donte DiVincenzo is another potential option for the Warriors. He’s currently questionable after sitting out the team’s last game, but he would be worth serious consideration if he’s able to suit up. He’s increased his fantasy production to 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s increased his usage rate by +4.4% with Curry, Wiggins, and Thompson off the floor.

Jaylen Brown continues to quietly post monster numbers for the Celtics. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.36 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, yet his price tag has barely budged. His $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and his 14 Pro Trends lead the entire slate.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Zach LaVine’s price tag remains a bit lower than usual at $7,200 on DraftKings, and that has historically been a good salary to target the Bulls’ stud. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.28 in games with a comparable salary as a member of the Bulls (per the Trends tool).

The Hawks also represent a nice matchup for LaVine. They’ve played at the seventh-fastest pace this season, and they’ve been an average team in terms of defensive efficiency. The total on that game sits at 235.5, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.

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Value

Sticking with the Bulls, Patrick Williams is too cheap at $4,000 given his expected role on Wednesday. He’s projected for just over 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Williams has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.16 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Jonathan Kuminga hasn’t seen the bump in minutes that most were expecting recently, but the team may have no choice but to lean on him if Thompson and DiVincenzo sit. Kuminga was an outstanding per-minute producer as a rookie, and he’s followed that up with an average of 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s too cheap on FanDuel even if DiVincenzo is active given his Bargain Rating of 96%.

Kyle Anderson is questionable for the Timberwolves, but he’s worth some consideration if he’s able to suit up. He should continue to play more than 30 minutes per night with Karl-Anthony Towns sidelined, and he’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James is in his 20th season, but he has shown no real signs of decline. He’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute thanks to averages of 27.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game. James took the night off on the second leg of a back-to-back on Monday, but he scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in each of his three previous contests.

With Davis sidelined, James’ production should only increase. He’s seen one of the largest bumps in fantasy scoring with Davis sidelined this season, increasing his production to 1.47 DraftKings points per minute. That alone makes him underpriced at $9,900 in a juicy matchup vs. the Kings.

If Westbrook is also ruled out, James would become a borderline must-play on DraftKings given his 98% Bargain Rating. He’s seen a +5.7% usage bump with both players off the court this season.

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Value

Tari Eason is dirt cheap at $3,400 on DraftKings, and while he isn’t playing a ton of minutes, he makes the most out of his time on the floor. He has a very fantasy-friendly skill set, resulting in an average of 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. He’s expected to see around 20 minutes on Wednesday, and that should be enough to pay off his current salary in a strong matchup. The Magic rank tied for 21st in defensive efficiency, so the Rockets should be able to put some points on the scoreboard.

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Fast Break

Kevin Love played 24.1 minutes in his last contest, and while that may not seem like much, it represents a pretty significant increase compared to what he’s been playing of late. He had 19.2 minutes or less in each of his previous five games, and Love is capable of doing significant damage on a per-minute basis. He’s super cheap across the industry, and very few players in his price range have the same type of ceiling.

Harrison Barnes is questionable for the Kings, but he would be worth consideration if he’s able to suit up. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games on FanDuel, including each of his past four. That includes each of his past four games, and he’s displayed a ceiling of 36.4 FanDuel points in that stretch.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis is also questionable for the Kings, and he’s been priced up to $10,300. That’s obviously not a great combination, but Sabonis is still worth considering if he’s in the lineup.

The Lakers are going to be soft on the interior with Davis sidelined, and Sabonis has played as well as anyone not named Nikola Jokic recently. He’s averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he racked up 71.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. He now has at least 51.25 DraftKings points in six of his past eight games, so his increased price tag is 100% deserved.

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Value

Jalen Duren has been a rebounding fiend ever since being inserted into the starting lineup. He’s pulled down at least 11 boards in his past six contests, which gives him a great shot at a cheap double-double. The scoring is the bigger question mark, but he’s gotten to double-digit points in three of those contests. Regardless, he’s priced at a point where he can return value almost entirely with his rebounding numbers, so anything he does in the other categories is just a cherry on top.

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Fast Break

Nikola Vucevic has scored at least 46.3 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’ll have the chance for another strong outing vs. the Hawks. They’ve struggled against opposing centers this season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.67, and they’re currently playing without starting center Clint Capela.

On the other side of that matchup, Onyeka Okongwu is a solid source of value across the industry. He’s taken on most of the center minutes in place of Capela, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s scored at least 25.0 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, so he’s very reasonable at $4,900.