NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Apr. 5): Obi Toppin Poised for Production

Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Mavericks have lost three straight games, but they’re still very live for a spot in the play-in tournament. They’re tied with the Thunder in the loss column, so they could force a tie for the No. 10 spot with a win on Wednesday. It’s a bit embarrassing that a team with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving is in this position, but they still have a chance to salvage their season.

With that in mind, expect to see a heavy workload for Doncic vs. the Kings. He hasn’t played his best recently, scoring 52.0 DraftKings points or fewer in three of his past four games, but he remains one of the best players in fantasy. He’s averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which is easily the top mark among Wednesday’s backcourt options.

His matchup vs. the Kings is also a good one. Despite their success this season, the Kings have been unable to stop a nosebleed defensively. They rank tied for 24th in defensive efficiency, and when combined with an above-average pace, they’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy. The Mavericks are currently implied for 123.75 points, which is the top mark on the slate.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table is particularly bullish on Doncic’s rebound prospects:

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Value

April DFS is a different beast. While teams like the Mavericks are pushing their best players to try to get into the playoffs, teams like the Wizards are pushing in the opposite direction. They’re playing to get as many ping-pong balls as possible, so expect to see their D-team on the floor vs. the Hawks. They were without Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis, Deni Avdija, Monte Morris, and Delon Wright on Tuesday, and it would not be a shock if they’re all sidelined again vs. the Hawks. If that’s the case, they’re going to provide immense value.

Johnny Davis was the No. 10 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he hasn’t had much of a chance to shine this season. However, he took full advantage of his opportunity on Tuesday. He racked up 20 points, five rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two blocks across 36.5 minutes, resulting in 40.75 DraftKings points. If he’s going to see that much playing time again on Wednesday, it’s hard not to love his prospects vs. the Hawks. Atlanta has been one of the best possible matchups of late, ranking fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break.

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Fast Break

Kenrick Nunn is another potential option for the Wizards. He’s not expected to see quite as much playing time as Davis, but he’s averaged an elite 1.27 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He racked up 49.4 FanDuel points in 22.5 minutes on Tuesday, so he doesn’t need a huge workload to potentially return value.

Spencer Dinwiddie stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s increased his production to 1.07 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Mikal Bridges has proven there’s a lot more to his game since arriving in Brooklyn. He’s averaged an outstanding 27.4 points per game in 24 games with the Nets, resulting in an average of just under 41 DraftKings points. Overall, his average of 1.13 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is one of the best marks among Wednesday’s shooting guards. Bridges is coming off a subpar performance in his last outing, but he had returned positive value in his six previous games.

Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pistons represents a phenomenal bounce-back spot. The Pistons rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season, and Bridges has thrived in good matchups of late. The Nets are still looking to clinch a guaranteed postseason spot in the Eastern Conference, so expect them to lean heavily on Bridges on this slate.

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Value

Jordan Goodwin has played well in limited playing time this season, averaging 0.96 DraftKings points per minute. He’s increased that figure to 1.04 over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 31.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He should be locked into another big workload as long as the Wizards are shorthanded again on Wednesday.

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Fast Break

The Knicks are essentially locked into the No. 5 seed in the East, so they will unsurprisingly use Wednesday’s matchup vs. the Pacers to get some of their players some rest. Julius Randle remains out with an injury, while Jalen Brunson has been ruled out for injury maintenance. R.J. Barrett is also questionable with an illness, so the team could be significantly shorthanded. That makes Immanuel Quickley one of the best plays of the day. He’s averaged more than 40 minutes per game in 11 contests without Brunson this season, and he’s averaged 42.88 FanDuel points per game. He’s a steal at $7,400 given his 94% Bargain Rating.

Kyrie Irving’s 12 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s coming off 61.0 FanDuel points in his last outing, and he’s played at least 40.1 minutes in three straight games. That gives him plenty of appeal vs. the Kings.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Zach LaVine probably won’t be a priority target for most on this slate, but he’s seen a slight uptick in production recently. He’s scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The Bulls are locked into the play-in tournament in the East, but they can still potentially move up a bit in the standings if they can get some help. They’re 2.0 games behind the Raptors and Hawks in the standings, and the difference between the No. 8 seed and No. 10 seed is definitely worth playing for.

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Value

Quentin Grimes is another potential option for the Knicks. He got off to a slow start this season, but he’s increased his production to 0.91 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also seen a team-high +6.5% usage bump with Brunson and Randle off the floor this season, so he could be a bit more productive than usual vs. the Pacers. His salary has come up across the industry, but his $6,100 price tag on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

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Fast Break

Royce O’Neale has also seen a boost in production recently, averaging 0.85 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He also racked up more than 35 minutes in his last contest, and he remains very affordable at $4,900 on FanDuel.

Saddiq Bey has provided big value for the Hawks with De’Andre Hunter out of the lineup recently. He’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in four straight games, and he’s played at least 33.9 minutes in his past two. Bey has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he should continue to provide value in his expanded role.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Bucks secured a big win over the shorthanded Wizards on Tuesday, and when combined with the Celtics’ loss against the 76ers, it pushed their lead in the Eastern Conference to 3.0 games with three to play. The job isn’t officially done yet since the Celtics own the head-to-head tiebreaker, but one more win or Celtics’ loss will give the Bucks the top seed.

It will be interesting to see how Milwaukee chooses to approach the second leg of a back-to-back on Wednesday. They could very well choose to rest some of their top players, or they could look to just get it over with. If Giannis Antetokounmpo is in the lineup, he deserves consideration as the top stud on the slate. He’s taken has already elite production to another level recently, averaging 2.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s racked up at least 63.25 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, despite playing 32.8 minutes or less in each contest. That’s absurd.

If Giannis is ruled out, then the rest of the Bucks should provide value. Khris Middleton would become a strong target after resting on Tuesday, while guys like Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez would also be worth considering in the frontcourt.

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Value

Regardless of Barrett’s status, Obi Toppin should be locked into a sizable role at power forward. He racked up 33 minutes in the team’s last game and responded with 35.25 DraftKings points. That doesn’t stand out as an outlier. Toppin has played at least 30 minutes in seven career games, and he’s scored at least 33.0 DraftKings points in each of them (per the Trends tool). He’s averaged over 43.0 DraftKings points in those contests, so he has upside for an even bigger performance in a plus matchup vs. the Pacers.

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Fast Break

Jordan Nwora has always been able to score the ball, and he’s getting a chance to play more with the Pacers than he ever did with the Bucks. He’s played at least 29.7 minutes in five straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of them. He’s averaged 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and his $5,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Harrison Barnes doesn’t provide the highest ceiling, but he’s typically reliable. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on FanDuel, where he remains underpriced at $5,200. It results in a Bargain Rating of 88% in the game with the highest total on the slate.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Center is one of the weaker positions to pay up at on Wednesday (excluding Giannis). However, Clint Capela stands out as an excellent midrange option with upside. He draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Wizards, who might start me at center.

Capela has also historically been one of the best per-minute producers at the position. His playing time has been volatile all season, but he’s scored at least 31.0 DraftKings points in six of his past nine games. He also played more than 32 minutes in the team’s last competitive contest, so it’s possible he’ll pick up a few extra minutes in a game the Hawks need to win.

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Value

Jalen Duren has had an excellent rookie season for the Pistons, but he’s been coming off the bench behind James Wiseman for most of the past month. That changed in their last contest. Duren joined the starting lineup alongside Wiseman, and he responded with 43.5 DraftKings points in just under 36 minutes of playing time. He might not see quite as many minutes on Wednesday, but he doesn’t need to at his current price tag. He’s averaged a stout 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s an elite option if he retains his starting spot vs. the Nets.

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Fast Break

Jay Huff had a huge game for the Wizards on Tuesday, racking up 36.75 DraftKings points in 26.9 minutes. Huff hasn’t seen much playing time for the Wizards, but he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute when he’s been on the floor. That gives him some appeal if the Wizards remain shorthanded on Wednesday’s slate.

Isaiah Jackson is another excellent per-minute producer, and his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Myles Turner is currently questionable for the Pacers, and Jackson is a candidate to move into the starting lineup if he’s ruled out. Jackson has played at least 20.9 in five of his past six games, and that should be enough for him to return value.