NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, Apr. 12): Bulls’ Big Three is Underpriced on DraftKings

Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

C.J. McCollum has been uninspiring lately, posting a negative Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games, but he has a proven track record of fantasy success. He’s expected to play as many minutes as any guard on Wednesday, racking up at least 38.2 minutes in four of his past five contests. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so despite his recent struggles, that should be more than enough to return value.

McCollum has also seen a slight price reduction for this matchup. He was priced at $8,300 for his final regular season contest, so his $7,900 price tag provides a bit of value. He’s been priced below $8k on 29 previous occasions this season, and he’s averaged 39.18 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool).

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Value

Coby White has quietly been balling for the Bulls recently. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.33 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s put together some huge performances of late, scoring at least 32.4 FanDuel points in five of his past nine outings.

He likely won’t see quite as much playing time during the postseason as he did towards the tail end of the regular season, but White is capable of racking up points quickly. He’s currently projected for 24 minutes in our NBA Models, and his $4,700 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

From a raw points perspective, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the top option on this slate. SGA put together an incredible season for the Thunder, averaging 1.42 FanDuel points per minute. He’s also taken on a huge workload down the stretch, racking up at least 37.5 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s scored at least 55.1 FanDuel points in two of them, and that kind of production is definitely possible vs. the Pelicans.

No one leans on their starters heavier than Nick Nurse, so expect to see a monster workload for Fred VanVleet. He’s currently projected for more than 40 minutes vs. the Bulls, and he’s increased his production to 1.17 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. If he can continue to produce at that level, $8,800 is simply too cheap.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

All of the Bulls’ “big three” stand out as underpriced on DraftKings. The game environment is expected to be dreadful, with the total on this contest sitting at just 212.5 points. The Bulls are also listed as six-point underdogs, so their implied team total of 103.25 is the worst mark on the slate by a pretty wide margin.

Still, $7,300 is simply too cheap for a player of Zach LaVine’s caliber. LaVine has posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.19 in games with a comparable salary this season, and he enters this game in decent form. He struggled in his last full contest vs. the Bucks, but they possess one of the best defenses in the league. He had 40.25 and 56.75 DraftKings points in his previous two contests, so he provides nice upside at this reduced price tag.

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Value

Isaiah Joe was not expected to be part of the Thunder’s rotation this season, but nothing about the Thunder’s season has been expected. They were one of the favorites for the worst record in the league before the start of the year, yet here they are, contending for a playoff spot.

Joe proved himself a worthy NBA player when filling in for SGA earlier this year, which earned him a permanent spot in their rotation. He’s played at least 21.3 minutes in each of their past four games, despite the team being essentially at full strength. He’s scored at least 23.75 DraftKings points in his past two, and Joe has proven to be a competent per-minute contributor. Joe has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s currently projected for around 25 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be enough to return value.

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Fast Break

Gary Trent Jr. isn’t playing a ton of minutes for the Raptors at the moment, but he’s been productive when on the floor. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s massively underpriced on DraftKings. His $4,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, which ranks first at the position by a wide margin.

Josh Giddey has been underpriced on FanDuel for most of the year, and Wednesday’s slate is no exception. His $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and his 11 Pro Trends lead the way at shooting guard. He’s capable of racking up fantasy points in many different ways, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.69 over his past 10 contests.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram played like a man possessed down the stretch. He did his best to will the Pelicans into one of the final guaranteed postseason spots, and while he ultimately came up short, he provided DFS players with plenty of production in the process. He scored at least 46.0 DraftKings points in 10 of his final 13 games, including 73.5 in the regular season finale.

Ingram has always been a great scorer, but he’s been much more involved in the peripheral categories of late. He’s averaged 8.2 assists and 6.6 boards over his past 13 games, which represent massive increases from his career averages. Add it all up, and he’s increased his production to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Among Wednesday’s options, only Jonas Valanciunas has been a better per-minute contributor than Ingram over that time frame, and he’s not expected to see nearly as much playing time. Ingram’s price tag has increased, but you can make a strong case that he’s the top stud on the slate.

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Value

The Thunder are probably the best team to target for value on this slate. The other three squads lean pretty heavily on their top options, so the Thunder should have the most opportunities for their complementary players.

Lu Dort is known mostly for his defensive prowess – don’t let him get you in the “Dorture chamber” – but he’s capable of racking up fantasy points as well. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s expected to see plenty of playing time vs. the Pelicans. He played at least 35.6 minutes in his final four full contests, and he scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in three of them. That kind of production would be more than acceptable at just $5,400.

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Fast Break

Trey Murphy has blossomed into a really important player for the Pelicans. He’s played all the minutes he can handle down the stretch, racking up at least 38.8 minutes in five of his past six games. He had at least 36.3 FanDuel points in three of them, with most of his value coming from his 3-point shooting. If he gets hot from behind the arc vs. the Thunder, he has the potential to put up a big number.

The Raptors haven’t leaned too heavily on Scottie Barnes of late, but that should change in the postseason. He’s projected to play nearly 39 minutes on Wednesday, and he’s racked up 40.5, 61.25, and 56.25 DraftKings points in his past three games with comparable workloads. Barnes has averaged right around a fantasy point per minute this season, so that kind of upside is reasonable with that much playing time.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

DeMar DeRozan isn’t quite as cheap as LaVine, but he’s arguably priced at a larger discount. DeRozan is someone who we’re used to seeing at around $9,000, and he was priced at $8,600 for his final regular season contest. He’s struggled to pay off that price tag of late, but he’s still scored at least 41.0 DraftKings points in four of his past seven full contests. Ultimately, he’s been priced below $8k in just four previous games this season, so this is a prime buy-low opportunity.

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Value

Herb Jones is another member of the Pelicans who has become increasingly important to the Pelicans as the year has progressed. He’s played at least 38.8 minutes in two of their past three games, and he erupted for 55.75 DraftKings points in one of those contests. That kind of production is a clear outlier – Jones has averaged just 0.77 DraftKings points per minute for the year – but it’s hard to find someone with so much playing time potential at such a reasonable salary in the postseason.

Jones also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Fast Break

Larry Nance Jr. is currently questionable for the Pelicans, but he’s suited up in their past 15 games. He should be in the lineup, and he’s expected to command around 24 minutes. That isn’t much, but Nance makes up for it with solid per-minute production. He’s averaged 0.93 FanDuel points per minute for the year, and he’s priced very reasonably across the industry. He’s one of the better punt plays on the slate.

Pascal Siakam stands out as an excellent tournament play using the new Perfect% metric. He checks into the optimal lineup in 23.12% of our DraftKings simulations, but he’s currently projected for less than 18% ownership. That’s a decent discrepancy, which suggests he’s being undervalued by the public.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic has been the clear No. 3 option behind DeRozan and LaVine since arriving in Chicago, but he’s still capable of putting together big performances. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings per minute for the year – the top mark among the Bulls’ players – and he’s racked up at least 40.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back contests. That includes his last game, despite playing just 27.7 minutes against the Mavericks.

Like his teammates, Vucevic has also seen a pretty significant price reduction for this matchup. He was priced at $8,300 just two games ago, so he’s down nearly a full -$1,000. The Raptors are a tough matchup, but Vucevic grades out as one of the top players on the DraftKings slate.

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Value

Jakob Poeltl will be tasked with slowing down Vucevic, and he’s an extremely capable fantasy producer when given the opportunity to play big minutes. He’s averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which is only slightly lower than Pascal Siakam’s mark of 1.22.

However, Poeltl’s minutes are extremely difficult to peg down on a night-to-night basis. He logged 22.7 minutes or fewer in his final three regular season contests, but he played at least 30 minutes in his two previous. If he sees toward the high end of his minute range, he has the potential to be one of the best per-dollar options on the slate. If he doesn’t, he’ll still have a chance to return value at his current salary. Poeltl has been priced above $7,000 on plenty of occasions since rejoining the Raptors, so $5,700 represents a nice discount.

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Fast Break

Valanciunas has seen a pretty steep reduction in playing time of late, logging 25.2 minutes or less in his final three contests. He still went off for 38.0 DraftKings points in one of those outings – that’s how good he is on a per-minute basis – but his upside is a bit capped if he doesn’t see a boost vs. the Thunder. However, he still has some appeal at $6,800 on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 79%.