The NBA is officially back! The regular season gets underway Tuesday with a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
There are a bunch of top-end point guards available on this slate, but none are grading out particularly well in our NBA Models. Steph Curry probably won’t be pushed too hard in his season debut, while James Harden wasn’t the same fantasy superstar after landing in Philadelphia. Russell Westbrook is also coming off the bench this season, so his fantasy value is in flux.
With that in mind, the newly-paid Jordan Poole might be the best option at the position, particularly on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $6,000 on FanDuel, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 92%.
Poole averaged a strong 0.99 FanDuel points per minute last year, but his minutes depended on who was available for the Warriors on a given night. He should have a much more consistent role in 2022-23, and he’s projected for just under 30 minutes on opening night. Poole has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.95 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).
Value
On DraftKings, Tyrese Maxey stands out as the strongest play at the position. He’s priced at just $5,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and the 76ers were not shy about playing him big minutes last year. He averaged 35.3 minutes per game, and he leads all point guards with just over 36 projected minutes on Tuesday. Maxey averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute last season, so he’s capable of making the most of his playing time.
Fast Break
The Lakers’ point guard situation is going to be fascinating this season. Patrick Beverley is expected to start, while Westbrook and Kendrick Nunn will play off the bench. All three guys are expected to see equivalent minutes, with each projected for 28-30 minutes in our NBA Models. Nunn is priced at the absolute minimum at $3,000 on DraftKings, making him extremely appealing. Historically, min-priced players have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.78 with a comparable minute projection.
The Celtics also have three PG-eligible options on DraftKings, but Malcolm Brogdon is the most intriguing. He’s priced at just $4,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season. That was in a starring role with the Pacers, and he’ll play a more complementary role with the Celtics. Still, he’s a good player, and he’s played alongside star players in the past.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jaylen Brown is another player who stands out as underpriced on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $8,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 76%, and he’s averaged 33.0 FanDuel points per game over the past year. That’s not quite enough to pay off his current price tag, but it still ranks second at the position behind only Harden.
There are some questions about how the usage will shake out for the Celtics this season, but Brown should continue to serve as the team’s No. 2 option. He averaged 1.09 FanDuel points per minute last season, and he’s expected to see around 34 minutes vs. the 76ers.
Value
Add Austin Reaves to the list of potential value options in the Lakers’ backcourt. He did a little bit of everything for the Lakers during the preseason, averaging 6.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.25 assists, and 2.0 blocks + steals over his final four games. That puts him on track to improve upon his average of 0.68 DraftKings points per minute from last year. Like the rest of the Lakers’ backcourt options, he’s expected to see around 30 minutes on opening night, making him a strong value at just $3,400.
Fast Break
Derrick White struggled to make an impact after being acquired by the Celtics. He averaged less than 23 DraftKings points in 26 regular season games, but he did take on a slightly larger role during the postseason. He’s currently projected for more minutes than Brogdon in our projections, and he’s -$800 cheaper on DraftKings.
Marcus Smart is also worth some consideration on DraftKings. His $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%, and he obviously has a bit more familiarity with the Celtics’ system. Smart averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he’s displayed an excellent ceiling at this price tag in the past.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
As much as some things change, others stay the same. LeBron James is entering his 20th professional season, and no one in league history has racked up more minutes than King James. Still, James hasn’t shown any real signs of decline. He’s started to pick up a bit more injuries over the past few years, but he remains as good as ever when he’s on the floor. He averaged 54.35 DraftKings points per game last season, and he averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute.
I’m sure the Lakers would love to lessen James’ workload this season, and they’ll have the chance to do that with a fully healthy roster. Still, James should see somewhere in the vicinity of 35 minutes, giving him one of the top ceilings on the slate. He’s an absolute steal at just $9,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
We haven’t touched much on the Warriors, partly because they have such a deep rotation. However, they also have the top implied team total on the slate. They check in at 116.0 points, and no other team is above 109.5.
That makes Donte DiVincenzo an interesting punt play. It’s unclear how much he’ll factor into their rotation, but he’s currently projected for around 20 minutes. DiVincenzo has historically been a solid per-minute player, and he averaged 0.86 FanDuel points per minute in limited action last year. He’s one of the best pure values on FanDuel given his 85% Bargain Rating.
Fast Break
Andrew Wiggins is another nice value on FanDuel at just $6,700. Wiggins was recently rewarded with a fat contract, which he earned with his play during the postseason. Unfortunately, I wouldn’t expect him to provide similar production in the regular season. He averaged just 29.5 FanDuel points per game during the regular season, but he was at least reliable: His 76% Consistency Rating is the top mark among small forwards.
Tobias Harris is about as cheap as he’s ever been during his tenure with the 76ers. He’s had a comparable salary on just 22 previous occasions in Philly, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.88. His role with the team is clearly shrinking, but this salary might be too much of an overcorrection.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Anthony Davis is officially back, and his production during the preseason should get DFS players excited. He racked up 28 points and a 43.9% usage rate two games ago, and he followed that up with 19 points and 13 boards over 27.1 minutes in his last outing. Davis has been hampered by injuries over the past two years, but he remains an elite fantasy producer when on the floor.
As long as Davis is healthy, he’s a very appealing option at just $8,500. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and stacking him with LeBron is a viable strategy. Both players have a positive correlation, and that should only improve with Westbrook playing less this season.
Value
Al Horford was phenomenal for the Celtics in the playoffs last year, and he was pretty darn good in the regular season as well. He averaged 29.13 DraftKings points per game in an average of 29.1 minutes. Horford is another year older, and the Celtics should look to limit his minutes early in the year. Still, Horford has already proven he can pay off a $4,900 price tag in less than 30 minutes. He grades out as one of the strongest options on the slate.
Fast Break
Jayson Tatum is another potential stud option at power forward. While Davis has the clear edge on DraftKings, Tatum is slightly cheaper on FanDuel. He wasn’t quite as good as The Brow on a per-minute basis, but he routinely carries one of the largest workloads in the league. He averaged 35.9 minutes per game last year, which was the fifth-highest mark among qualified players.
How do you approach Draymond Green on opening night? It’s fair to say he’s had a tumultuous offseason, and he wasn’t particularly effective last year either. He averaged just 30.96 FanDuel points per game, and he’s become basically a non-factor as a scorer. Still, he’s priced at just $6,300 on FanDuel, and he averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute. He’s only projected for around 28 minutes, but that should still give him a shot at returning value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid is the most expensive player on this slate, but that’s 100% deserved. He’s coming off an incredible season, averaging 1.59 DraftKings points per minute and finishing second in the MVP voting. His role also really didn’t change following the Harden acquisition, so there’s no reason to expect anything different this year.
Embiid draws a tough matchup vs. the Celtics, but it’s nothing that he can’t handle. He squared off with the Celtics four times last year, and he scored at least 55.75 DraftKings points in three of them.
Value
Damian Jones is another piece for the new-look Lakers. Jones was solid for the Kings last year with limited, averaging 17.55 DraftKings points in 18.2 minutes per game. He should see a similar role as the Lakers’ backup center, giving him some appeal at just $3,500.
Fast Break
The Warriors figure to play three centers this season: James Wiseman, Kevon Looney, and JaMychal Green. All three players are currently projected for similar workloads on opening night, but Green is the cheapest by a wide margin. His $3,800 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%, and he averaged a respectable 0.92 FanDuel points per minute last year.
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