NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Nov. 15): Target Ja Morant vs. Pelicans

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

It hasn’t exactly been the best start to the year for Ja Morant from a fantasy perspective. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -5.94 over his past 10 games, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in seven of those contests. Morant also draws a tough matchup Tuesday vs. the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.74.

However, the Grizzlies are expected to be without Desmond Bane, who is doubtful with a toe injury. Morant racked up 57.0 DraftKings points in his last game, posting a 40.5% usage rate with 10 rebounds and eight boards. He’s increased his usage rate to 42.9% with Bane off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.62 DraftKings points per minute. Morant has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in general this season, so he has far more upside than usual.

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Value

Collin Sexton has struggled of late, but he’s been a strong source of value for most of the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past 10 games, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points per minute off the bench for the Jazz. He’s not seeing a ton of minutes on most nights – he’s currently projected for 25.67 minutes in our NBA Models – but that’s not a killer at his current price tag. His $4,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, and he draws a fantastic matchup vs. the Knicks. They rank 22nd in defensive efficiency to start the year, and the Jazz lead the slate with an implied team total of 118.25.

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Fast Break

Tre Jones missed Monday’s game with an illness, and his status for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Blazers is unknown. He would be worth serious consideration on FanDuel if he’s able to return to the lineup. He’s scored at least 33.3 FanDuel points in four of his past five games, including each of his past three. His price tag has dipped to just $5,900, making him a strong potential source of value.

De’Aaron Fox has a tough matchup vs. the Nets – who surprisingly rank fourth in defensive efficiency – but he’s simply too cheap for his level of production this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 47.8 FanDuel points in two straight.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Zion Williamson is currently questionable for the Pelicans, and his status will be important to monitor. If he’s ruled out, C.J. McCollum could take on a more prominent role as a scorer. He posted a 28.5% usage rate for the Pelicans last season, and he’s second on the team with a 29.6% usage rate with Williamson off the floor this season. McCollum’s usage rate currently sits at 25.2% for the year, so he would have significantly more scoring upside vs. the Grizzlies if Williamson is ruled out. That would make him an interesting option on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

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Value

Joe Harris continues to see plenty of minutes for the Nets, but he hasn’t been very effective this year. He’s averaged just 0.66 DraftKings points per minute, which is a far cry from his average in his prime. However, most of Harris’ value comes from his 3-point shooting, and he’s making just 34.5% of his attempts this season. He’s a career 43.6% shooter from downtown, so he has plenty of room for improvement.

Even if he doesn’t improve, Harris is still very affordable for his projected workload. He’s currently projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.24 (per the Trends tool).

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Fast Break

John Konchar is another player who is underpriced for his current workload. He will likely replace Bane in the Grizzlies’ starting lineup, and he’s expected to play around 30 minutes. Konchar stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, where his $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%.

Paul George is another strong value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 96%. He wasn’t really needed on Monday, playing just 29.1 minutes in a blowout win vs. the Rockets, but he still finished with 44.1 FanDuel points. He should continue to serve as the team’s clear top offensive option with Kawhi Leonard sidelined.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

R.J. Barrett finished with just 6.25 DraftKings points in his last contest, but he was limited to 19.4 minutes due to foul trouble and ineffectiveness. Tom Thibodeau used Evan Fournier and Immanuel Quickley in the closing lineup instead of Barrett and Jalen Brunson, but both players should return to their usual roles on Tuesday.

Prior to Sunday’s debacle, Barrett had been playing some of his best basketball of the year. He scored at least 38.25 DraftKings points in four of his prior five games, and he’s increased his fantasy production to 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. Barrett’s price has decreased across the industry following his poor showing, so he’s a nice bounce-back option vs. the Jazz.

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Value

The Grizzlies are going to be a popular team to target on Tuesday, and Dillon Brooks is another potential option. Brooks’ usage is down to start the year, but he’s increased his usage rate to 29.6% with Bane off the floor. That trails only Morant’s massive mark, giving him far more upside than usual. He’s a prime buy-low target on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

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Fast Break

Lauri Markkanen continues to get the job done for the Jazz. He’s averaged 1.14 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +2.70 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His salary has also decreased to $7,600 after peaking at $8,500, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.27 vs. the Knicks.

Terence Davis has always been an outstanding per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but that hasn’t stopped him from posting a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games. He’s currently projected for around 17 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’ll have a chance to pay off his $3,100 salary with that much playing time.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Kevin Durant is having another phenomenal scoring season. He’s averaging more than 30 points per game while shooting 52.4% from the field, and very few players can match his combination of volume and efficiency. His supporting cast is extremely shaky with Kyrie Irving sidelined, so expect Durant to continue to get plenty of shots up.

However, his fantasy value has taken a hit this year. He’s not racking up nearly the same volume of peripherals, likely due to the presence of Ben Simmons. Simmons can basically only hand out assists and grab rebounds, and Durant’s stats have suffered with him on the floor.

That said, Simmons isn’t playing much at the moment, logging 16 minutes or fewer in two of his past three games. He’s also questionable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Kings, so there’s a chance he might not be out there at all. Durant would become much more intriguing if he’s unavailable, so make sure to monitor the injury updates before lock.

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Value

Like Barrett, Obi Toppin is another player who didn’t see his usual allotment of minutes on Sunday. He finished with just 14.8 minutes vs. the Thunder, but he had logged at least 20.2 minutes in four of his five previous games. He’s projected for closer to 23 minutes in our NBA Models, and Toppin has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season. That makes him a nice bounce-back target at just $3,900.

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Fast Break

Jerami Grant has gone bananas for the Blazers recently, racking up at least 51.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. He’s stuffed the stat sheet in those contests, and he’s benefitted from the absences of Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow. He’s gotten a bit more expensive for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Spurs, but he would still be worth consideration if Nurkic and Winslow are ruled out.

Royce O’Neale is not the most exciting player to roster in DFS, but it has worked out really well for fantasy players of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.39 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of those contests. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle, and he could be even busier than usual if Simmons is ruled out.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas is another player who would benefit from the absence of Williamson. His playing time has been way down recently, but he’s been as effective as ever when on the floor. He’s averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s scored at least 40.25 DraftKings points in his last two games with at least 25.5 minutes.

Valanciunas would likely see a few additional minutes if Williamson is ruled out, making him a very appealing option at just $6,200. It results in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.61.

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Value

Nic Claxton is slightly more expensive than Valanciunas on FanDuel, but he’s significantly cheaper on FanDuel. He exited his last game early due to an eye injury, but he’s probably to suit up vs. the Kings. He’s a good bet to return to his usual 30 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Kings aren’t quite as friendly of a matchup as they’ve been in the past, but they still rank fifth in pace.

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Fast Break

Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been quite as consistent with the Kings as he has been in the past, but he still possesses one of the top ceilings in basketball. He put that on display in his last outing, racking up 26 points, 22 boards, and eight assists vs. the Warriors. He finished with 66.5 DraftKings points, and the Nets are another favorable matchup.