NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Nov. 1): Kevin Durant in Smash Spot

Tuesday features a four-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played some phenomenal basketball to start the year. He’s scored at least 57.0 DraftKings points in three of five games, and he’s coming off 63.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s averaged a stout 1.48 DraftKings points per minute, which trails only Steph Curry at the point guard position on Tuesday.

SGA has been priced up to $10,800 on FanDuel, but he remains very affordable on DraftKings. His $9,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he has very similar projections to Curry and Kyrie Irving in our NBA Models. Given that he’s slightly cheaper than both players on DraftKings, that gives him the clear edge from a value standpoint.

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Value

The Bulls’ backcourt will be worth monitoring on Tuesday. Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White are both currently listed as questionable, and Alex Caruso would become an excellent option if both players are ruled out. He racked up a season-high 35.2 minutes with Dosunmu sidelined on Saturday and responded with 29.75 DraftKings points. Caruso has averaged 28.61 DraftKings points in 33 career games with at least 30 minutes of playing time (per the Trends tool), so he would be underpriced if the team is thin.

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Fast Break

Jalen Suggs has been upgraded to questionable vs. the Thunder, and he would be worth consideration on FanDuel if he’s able to suit up. He’s priced at just $5,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. That gives him a shot to pay off his salary, even if he’s limited in his first game back.

Chris Paul isn’t the most exciting fantasy point guard at this point in his career, but he’s been reliable to start the year. He’s averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. The Suns’ implied team total of 115.5 is also the second-highest mark on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Zach LaVine is probable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Nets, but he’s had a slow start to the year. He’s missed multiple games due to injury management, and he’s averaged just 1.02 FanDuel points per minute when he’s been on the court.

That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $7,300 on FanDuel, and LaVine has plenty of appeal at that figure. He’s historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +1.81 with a comparable salary as a member of the Bulls, and he’s in a phenomenal spot Tuesday vs. the Nets. They rank dead last in defensive efficiency, and this game leads the slate with a 231-point total.

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Value

Jalen Williams played a large role for the Thunder in their last contest. He was the No. 12 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft, and he returned to the lineup after missing four games with a fractured orbital bone. With Josh Giddey still sidelined, Williams should be a solid part of the team’s rotation once again on Tuesday. He’s currently projected for around 26 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season. He might be due for a bit of regression from a per-minute perspective, but he still stands out as one of the best values of the day at just $3,900 on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

The Nets have already ruled out Seth Curry and Ben Simmons vs. the Bulls, and it’s possible that Joe Harris sits on the second leg of a back-to-back. Regardless, Royce O’Neale should see all the minutes he can handle. O’Neale is a mediocre per-minute producer, but he makes up for it through sheer volume. He’s currently projected for more than 36 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first seven games.

Kyrie Irving is also a viable option for the Nets, particularly on FanDuel given his eligibility at both guard spots. Irving has crushed to start the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.15, and he’s scored at least 56.2 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. The Nets also lead the slate with a 116.25-point implied team total.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Let’s keep riding with the Nets. Kevin Durant stands out as one of the top stud options on the slate, especially with Simmons out of the lineup. Durant remains one of the most dangerous scorers in the league, and he’s averaged 32.6 points per game to start the season. However, his fantasy numbers have taken a hit due to his poor peripheral production. He averaged just 4.5 boards and 3.7 assists through his first six games, both of which represent massive decreases from his marks last season.

That all changed with Simmons out of the lineup on Monday. Durant racked up his usual 36 points, but he also added season highs in both rebounds (nine) and assists (seven). It makes sense that he would see a boost in both areas with Simmons off the floor, so I expect that trend to continue on Tuesday. Durant is also projected for the most minutes on Tuesday’s slate, so he’s an easy choice as the top overall option.

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Value

Patrick Williams is another player who saw a boost in playing time for the Bulls in their last contest. He racked up 32.3 minutes after failing to crack 20.2 in each of his previous four contests. He’s currently projected for just 24 minutes in our NBA Models, but that could change depending on the Bulls’ injury situation. Williams is dirt cheap at $3,500 on DraftKings, so he would be worth consideration in that scenario.

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Fast Break

Edmond Sumner is another member of the Nets who could play a bit more than usual on Tuesday. He’s played very sparingly over the past two weeks, but he’s projected for around 24 minutes vs. the Bills. He’s averaged a respectable 0.77 DraftKings points per minute this season, making him a viable value play at just $3,200.

DeMar DeRozan is underpriced at $8,200 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.50 with a comparable salary as a member of the Bulls.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It’s looking like a stars-and-scrubs kind of night. Durant and the top point guards should get most of the attention, but Paolo Banchero is also worth some consideration on DraftKings. The No. 1 pick in the 2022 NBA Draft has had a phenomenal rookie season, displaying the ability to rack up fantasy points in a variety of ways. Overall, he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute, which is better than guys like DeRozan, Jimmy Butler, and Karl-Anthony Towns.

Banchero would lose a bit of assist upside if Suggs is able to return to the lineup, but he’s already had some good games with Suggs in the lineup. He’s simply too cheap at $7,900, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 84%.

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Value

You never know what the Thunder are going to do on a night-to-night basis, but Aleksej Pokusevski did move back into the starting lineup in their last game. Poku has had a rough start to the year, averaging just 6.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 34.1% shooting, but he’s displayed plenty of fantasy upside in the past. He a strong value across the industry if he draws another start vs. the Magic.

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Fast Break

Cameron Johnson remains one of the strongest values on FanDuel. They refuse to price him above $5,000, even though Jae Crowder is no longer a part of the rotation. Johnson has averaged 0.87 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has the potential to play more than 30 minutes vs. the Timberwolves. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s coming off a season-high 31.9 FanDuel points in his last outing.

Yuta Watanabe could be asked to play a few extra minutes for the Nets on Tuesday, and he’s priced at just $3,100 on DraftKings. He’s been a dreadful per-minute producer this season, but anyone with the potential for 20+ minutes at a near-minimum salary is worth some consideration.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Vucevic has had an interesting start to his season. He’s had some big games, going for at least 54.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four, but he’s also had some clunkers. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute overall, but he’s had a wide range of outcomes on most nights.

Tonight’s matchup vs. the Nets has the potential to be a boom spot. In addition to struggling on defense, the Nets have also been absolutely killed on the glass this season. They rank dead last in team rebound rate, grabbing just 45.4% of rebound opportunities through their first seven games. That’s a historically bad mark: the last team to finish the year below 46% was the Lakers in 2013-14. If they can’t show improvement in that department, opposing big men should feast against the Nets all season long.

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Value

Draymond Green is clearly not the same player he was in his prime, but he doesn’t need to be at just $5,700. He’s still averaged a solid 0.97 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s playing around 30 minutes on most nights. That makes him one of the better per-dollar options at the position.

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Fast Break

Wendell Carter Jr. is one of the best options at the position on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. His nine Pro Trends are also tied for first at the position, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. His salary has actually decreased over that time frame, making him a nice value.

Paying up for one of the Timberwolves’ centers is also viable on this slate. I give a slight edge to Rudy Gobert, who has been more effective than Towns on a per-minute basis this season. He’s also a bit cheaper across the industry.