NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, May 9): Is Joel Embiid Back to Dominating?

Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Nuggets and Suns played two highly entertaining games in Phoenix, and the series shifts back to Denver tied at two games apiece. History says that whoever wins Game 5 wins the series at more than an 80% clip, so this is essentially a must-win contest for both teams.

Jamal Murray has been at his best for the Nuggets and fantasy players during the postseason, posting a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games. He’s scored at least 44.0 DraftKings points in each contest, yet his salary has remained very reasonable at $8,100 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 94%, which is tied for the top mark at the point guard position. He easily leads the position in projected Plus/Minus, making him the clear top option at point guard.

---

Value

Marcus Smart is another excellent value on DraftKings. He also owns a Bargain Rating of 94%, and his salary has decreased by -$1,000 since the start of the postseason. He’s down to just $5,200 on DraftKings, despite scoring 35.75 DraftKings points in his last contest.

Smart is currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and this price tag is simply too cheap if he’s going to see that much playing time. He’s had a comparable salary and minute projection in 87 career contests, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.18 (per the Trends tool).

---

Fast Break

Chris Paul has been ruled out for the third straight game for the Suns, which means Cameron Payne should draw another start at point guard. Payne is capable of filling it up when he’s on the floor, averaging 0.98 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He hasn’t produced at nearly that same level during the postseason, but he has some upside at $4,800 on FanDuel.

Derrick White is the Celtics’ PG to target on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s coming off a poor performance in his last contest, but he’s been a steady contributor for the Celtics all season. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute and is projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a strong buy-low candidate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

There are plenty of strong options at the top of the shooting guard position, but Jaylen Brown stands out as the best value in our projections. He’s more affordable than James Harden and Devin Booker, particularly at just $8,300 on FanDuel, and he leads the position with 11 Pro Trends.

Brown is coming off a poor showing in Game 4, but his usage rate was a paltry 20% in that contest. Brown had posted a usage rate of at least 30.0% in four of his previous five games, so expect him to be more aggressive offensively on Tuesday.

Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table also likes Brown’s rebound prospects in this matchup:

---

Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope isn’t the most exciting DFS option. He’s averaged just 0.70 FanDuel points per minute for the year, and that figure has dipped to just 0.55 over the past month. That’s not quite a P.J. Tucker-level of bad, but it’s pretty darn close.

However, KCP is still seeing a ton of minutes for the Nuggets, and he’s projected for another 34+ on Tuesday. It’s hard to find that much playing time at such an affordable salary during the postseason, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.44.

KCP leads all players in projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel, so he’s an excellent way to save some salary on this slate.

---

Fast Break

Devin Booker can’t keep this pace up forever, right? He’s been insanely productive during the postseason, averaging more than 37 points per game on better than 60% shooting, and his numbers from the past two contests are straight out of a video game. He racked up 83 points with 12 rebounds and 21 assists in those contests while shooting a near-perfect 34-43 from the field and 8-12 from 3-point range. It feels like regression should be on the way – which would make him a fade at his elevated price tag – but Booker has managed to stave off regression so far during the playoffs.

Malcolm Brogdon is the third of the Celtics’ PG options, and he saw a nice spike in playing time in Game 4. Part of that was due to the game going to overtime, but Brogdon still saw more than 30 minutes in regulation. He’s projected for 30 minutes again on Tuesday, and Brogdon has averaged an excellent 1.02 FanDuel points per minute for the year.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum got off to a slow start this postseason, but he has picked things up a bit recently. He was awesome in the closeout win over the Hawks, tallying 30 points, 14 boards, and seven assists, and he’s followed that up with at least 51.5 FanDuel points in three of four games vs. the 76ers.

Surprisingly, it has been Tatum’s scoring numbers that have held him back recently. He’s been doing outstanding work on the glass, pulling down double-digit boards in four of his past five games, including 18 in Game 4 vs. the 76ers. That said, he’s scored just 24, 27, and seven points in his past three games. Tatum averaged better than 30 points per game during the regular season, so he has some room for improvement in that department.

Coming off a disappointing loss in Game 4, expect to see the best from the Celtics on Tuesday. That typically means a big performance from Tatum.

---

Value

Bruce Brown is priced at just $4,900 on FanDuel, and his 71% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position. His playing time has been a bit down during the playoffs, but he’s an excellent per-minute producer for his price tag. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he doesn’t need a ton of minutes to potentially return value in Game 5.

This matchup also stands out as the clear preferred target for fantasy purposes. The total sits at 227.5 points, while the total in 76ers-Celtics is down at 213.5.

---

Fast Break

Michael Porter Jr. stands out as an excellent option on DraftKings, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 88%. MPJ hasn’t seen as many shot attempts as you might expect of late, posting a usage rate of 18.2% or lower in six straight games. However, he’s made up for it with some great work on the glass, pulling down double-digit boards in back-to-back contests. If he can keep that up while adding a bit more scoring, he has the potential to provide excellent value in Game 5.

Terrence Ross is a viable punt play at just $3,100. He’s expected to see around 17 minutes on Tuesday, and Ross is capable of putting the ball in the basket. It wasn’t a great year for him from a fantasy perspective, averaging just 0.73 DraftKings points per minute, but he’s had seven shot attempts in back-to-back games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Choosing between Tatum and Kevin Durant at forward is one of the tougher decisions on this slate. You could always play both together, but if you’re only choosing one, I give a slight edge to KD. That’s particularly true on DraftKings, where his $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Durant took a backseat to Booker in the first round of the playoffs, but his numbers have trended up vs. the Nuggets. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 30.4% in all four contests, and he’s scored at least 36 points in back-to-back games. Durant is also a sneaky-good contributor in the peripheral categories, resulting in 64.75 DraftKings points in his past two contests.

There’s also a chance that Booker eventually comes crashing back to reality, and if that happens, Durant will be there to pick up the slack. He’s projected for just 26% ownership on DraftKings, giving him a position-high 91% Leverage Rating. That makes him an ideal tournament option.

---

Value

Tobias Harris has been quiet with Joel Embiid back in the lineup for the past three games, finishing with 25.75, 14.5, and 22.25 DraftKings points. That has been the case with Harris for most of the year: He’s capable of picking up the slack when the team is without Embiid or James Harden, but he’s relegated to an afterthought when they’re at full strength.

That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,500 on DraftKings, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. Even as the team’s fourth option, Harris has still averaged a solid 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s projected for just under 39 minutes on Tuesday, which should be enough for him to return value.

---

Fast Break

Aaron Gordon is the Tobias Harris of the Nuggets. He had some huge games this season when Nikola Jokic was out of the lineup, but he’s mostly been pretty quiet. His production has dipped to just 0.74 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, but he averaged 1.02 for the year. He could be a candidate for some positive regression after shooting just 8-23 over his past two contests.

T.J. Warren is another potential punt play to consider for Phoenix. The Suns have dusted him off over the past two games, playing him 25.7 and 18.6 minutes in back-to-back games. Warren is projected for around 20 minutes on Tuesday, and he’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute for the year.

Center

Stud

Choosing between Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic at center is just as hard as choosing between Durant and Tatum at forward. However, Embiid seems like the better value at their respective price tags. He’s -$1,500 cheaper than Jokic on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and there wasn’t that much separating both players during the regular season. Jokic has averaged 1.74 DraftKings points per minute for the year, while Embiid was right behind at 1.62.

Of course, Embiid has not been operating at 100% during the playoffs. His usage rate was way down vs. the Nets, and he even sat out Game 1 of their series vs. the Celtics.

However, Embiid has looked more like his usual self during the past two games. He’s posted usage rates of 32.3% and 36.9% in those contests, and he responded with 61.25 and 58.75 DraftKings points. He didn’t even shoot the ball particularly well in those outings, making just 20 of 45 shots, so he has even more upside moving forward. Ultimately, grabbing Embiid at less than $10,000 on DraftKings is simply too tough to pass up.

---

Value

The Suns have deployed Jock Landale for more minutes over the past two games, and he’s responded with 18.75 and 19.75 DraftKings points. Landale has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so he’s capable of producing when given the opportunity. He’s expected to see around 20 minutes again on Tuesday, making him an elite value at $3,400.

---

Fast Break

While Embiid stands out as the better value in terms of projected Plus/Minus, there’s no denying Jokic’s ceiling. He’s gone off for at least 71.75 DraftKings points in five of his past six games, and he had a career-high 53 points on Sunday. His ceiling projection leads the slate by nearly 10 points, so he’s clearly worth considering in tournaments.

Landale has cut into Deandre Ayton’s playing time, but there’s no guarantee it stays that way in Game 5. That makes him an interesting contrarian option at just $5,600. He has the potential to absolutely obliterate that figure if he returns to his usual workload, and he should garner virtually no ownership.