NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, May 2): Can Steph Curry Do It Again?

Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Warriors got all they could handle from the Kings in the first round, but their big-game experience ultimately won out in the end. Steph Curry was electric in Game 7, pouring in 50 in the victory. It was the most ever by a player in a Game 7, and he joined Karl Malone as the only players to score at least 50 points in a playoff game at 35 or older.

Curry was pretty average during the first six games of the series, scoring more than 48.25 DraftKings points in just one contest. However, Game 7 proved he can still flip the switch when he needs to. He stands out at a point guard position that is pretty underwhelming on Tuesday. Jalen Brunson is the only other PG projected for more than 30.52 DraftKings points in our NBA Models, and Brunson isn’t even a lock to suit up. Ultimately, Curry leads the position in median, ceiling, and projected Plus/Minus, making him an excellent way to start your lineups.

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Value

Immanuel Quickley leads the position with a 79% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, and he could be looking at a monster workload if Brunson is unable to go. He saw a team-high 6.4% usage bump with Brunson and Julius Randle off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.10 FanDuel points per minute. In 14 full games without Brunson, Quickley averaged an elite 45.69 FanDuel points across 39.14 minutes per game.

Brunson will likely suit up despite the questionable designation, but Quickley is still worth considering at his current price point. There’s a chance that Brunson is less effective than usual, and the Knicks will need Quickley’s offense in that scenario.

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Fast Break

It appears Kyle Lowry was playing possum during the regular season. He looked absolutely cooked, but he’s elevated his game to start the playoffs. He racked up 45.3 FanDuel points in the play-in matchup vs. the Hawks, and he had 46.0 FanDuel points in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. Lowry hasn’t provided much consistency between those contests, but he’s proven that he has an excellent ceiling for his price tag. The fact that Jimmy Butler is currently questionable also gives Lowry a slight boost on Tuesday.

D’Angelo Russell may not be the third star the Lakers were hoping for, but he’s been very productive during the playoffs. He’s scored at least 34.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, including a whopping 44.5 in the clinching game vs. the Grizzlies. He shot an unsustainable 12-17 from the field in that contest, but he’s priced very affordably at just $5,800 on DraftKings.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Shooting guard is the weakest position on this slate, with Klay Thompson topping the pricing spectrum at $6,800 on DraftKings. Klay also stands out as arguably the best pure value at the position, leading the way in projected Plus/Minus. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Thompson has yet to have an eruption game during the postseason, and he’s struggled to 24.9 FanDuel points or fewer in three straight games. That said, Thompson is still projected for more than 37 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He’s coming off a 4-19 shooting performance in his last contest, so he’s poised for a better scoring night on Tuesday.

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Value

Gabe Vincent has quietly become a big part of the Heat’s offense. He took 23 shots in the Game 5 win over the Bucks, and he followed that up with 16 attempts in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. He shot 12 3-pointers in both contests, knocking down nine of them.

The Knicks focused on getting the ball out of Butler’s hands in Game 1, which created plenty of open looks for his teammates. Expect the game plan to be similar in Game 2, which should lead to another healthy number of shots for Vincent. He’s underpriced at $5,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 75%.

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Fast Break

Austin Reaves isn’t quite as good of a value on DraftKings as Russell, but it’s pretty darn close. Reaves owns a Bargain Rating of 84%, and like his teammate, he played extremely well towards the end of their series vs. the Grizzlies. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in the final three contests, scoring at least 34.0 DraftKings points in each. Reaves also logged at least 40 minutes in Games 4 and 5, and only Thompson is projected for more minutes at the position on Tuesday.

Quentin Grimes has missed time with an injury of late, but he returned to the lineup for Game 1 vs. the Heat. He played just 10.5 minutes in that contest, but he’s projected for more than 21 minutes on Tuesday. That makes him an interesting buy-low candidate. His salary has dipped to just $3,400, and his ownership projection is very reasonable for a two-game slate.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

As long as Butler is able to suit up, it’s hard to argue against him as the top option at small forward. In fact, he might be the top stud on the entire slate. What he did to close out the Bucks was nothing short of remarkable, tallying 63.0 and 73.25 DraftKings points in the final two games of the series. It was just the fifth team a No. 8 seed has beaten a No. 1 seed, and the Heat became the first play-in team to win a playoff series.

The Knicks made stopping Butler a priority in Game 1, but he still finished with 49.25 DraftKings points in 43.4 minutes. He’s increased his production to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is tied with LeBron James for the top mark at the position. Despite his injury, Butler also leads all players in terms of minute projection, so he’s poised for another successful evening.

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Value

Andrew Wiggins isn’t a true “value” at $7,000+ across the industry, but he’s still one of the strongest options at the position. Wiggins was instrumental in the Warriors’ title last season, and he’s going to be equally important if they hope to repeat this season.

Wiggins missed nearly two full months to end the regular season, but he showed no signs of rust in his return to the lineup. He posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games vs. the Kings, and he’s scored at least 30.4 FanDuel points in five straight. Overall, he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute since returning to the lineup, making him one of the safest plays at the position.

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Fast Break

Josh Hart is underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Hart isn’t a strong scorer, but he makes up for it by being one of the best rebounding wings in basketball. He’s averaged just under eight rebounds per game during the postseason, giving him a shot at a double-double vs. the Heat.

LeBron James is projected for less than 10% ownership on DraftKings, which is pretty wild for a two-game slate. The King has deferred to some of his teammates offensively in his 20th NBA season, but he’s still capable of putting up huge fantasy performances. He already has a 20-rebound game this postseason, and he had three games with at least 52.75 DraftKings points vs. the Grizzlies. He’s an excellent leverage option for tournaments.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Draymond Green moved to the bench during the first round, but he started the second half of Game 7. He’s likely going to retain that spot in the starting lineup to combat the Lakers’ size, which is good news for his fantasy prospects. He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for just under 34 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a nice combination for someone who costs just $6,500.

Green also grades out well in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

If Julius Randle is able to return to the lineup on Tuesday, he would be a very interesting option at just $6,900. Randle is someone who was routinely priced around $10,000 during the regular season, so his current salary represents a massive price decrease. Of course, Randle could be limited in his first game back, and he wasn’t exactly playing well before getting hurt. Still, Randle has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute for the year, so there is some massive buy-low upside at this number.

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Fast Break

Rui Hachimura was part of the Lakers’ overhaul during the trade deadline, and he has paid huge dividends during the playoffs. He scored at least 32.0 FanDuel points in his first two contests vs. the Grizzlies before cooling off towards the end of the series. He’s worth considering on FanDuel, where his $4,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%.

If Randle remains out for Game 2, Obi Toppin can certainly be used in his absence. He played 31.2 minutes in place of Randle on Sunday, finishing with 30.6 FanDuel points. Toppin has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s another player who stands out as an excellent value on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Anthony Davis is super expensive on FanDuel, but his $10,000 salary on DraftKings is reasonable. Davis has been the best per-minute producer on this slate over the course of the season, averaging 1.52 DraftKings points per minute. He’s also been priced at a comparable salary on just 21 previous occasions this season, averaging 52.42 DraftKings points in those contests (per the Trends tool).

Davis doesn’t possess the same consistency as some of the other top players in DFS, but his ceiling is excellent. He went off for at least 61.5 DraftKings points in three of four games vs. the Grizzlies, and he brings that same kind of upside to the table vs. the Warriors.

This matchup also stands out as the better of the two for fantasy purposes. The total currently sits at 227.5 points, which is nearly 20 points higher than Heat-Knicks.

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Value

If you’re looking for a punt play, you could do worse than Isaiah Hartenstein. He’s currently projected for around 21 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough for him to return value. He’s averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he had three games with at least 20.25 DraftKings points in the first round of the postseason.

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Fast Break

Like Davis, Bam Adebayo has been hit or miss to start the postseason. He has three games with 30.5 DraftKings points or fewer, but he also has two games with at least 45.25. That gives him a pretty solid ceiling for his $7,800 price tag. Adebayo can rack up fantasy points in a variety of categories, so he has plenty of ways to potentially return value.

It might feel weird to pay $7,000 for Kevon Looney, but he’s been worth every penny during the playoffs. He’s increased his production to 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +12.5 in four of his past five games on FanDuel. His 75% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position on FanDuel, and he trails only Draymond in projected Plus/Minus.