NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Mar. 7): Point Guard Value Palooza on DraftKings

Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

I’m not entirely sure what to expect with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at this point. The Thunder shut him down the previous two years, and it would make sense if they followed suit this season. However, SGA returned to the lineup on Sunday after missing the previous five games and stepped right back into his usual workload. He played 37 minutes and finished with 59.25 DraftKings points vs. the Jazz.

If SGA is going to continue to handle that much playing time, he’s undoubtedly underpriced. He’s priced at just $10,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 86% on DraftKings, and he’s averaged more than 50 DraftKings points per game this season. He’s also increased his production to 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The Thunder and Warriors are also expected to play in the best game of the day from a fantasy perspective. The 242.5-point total leads the slate, while the Warriors are listed as just 4.5-point road favorites. Add in the fact that SGA is expected to carry minimal ownership, and he makes for the ideal tournament play.

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Value

Ja Morant is going to miss another game for the Grizzlies, meaning it’s safe to fire up Tyus Jones at point guard. Jones is one of the best backup point guards in the business, and he reminded everyone of that fact on Sunday. He dropped 60.75 DraftKings points on the Clippers in 36.5 minutes, finishing with 25 points, 12 assists, three boards, and five steals.

I wouldn’t expect another 60-burger, but he’s a great bet to pay off his current price tag. Jones has played 10 games without Morant this season, and he’s averaged 39.7 DraftKings points in those contests. He is an absolute steal at $4,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

You can check out Tyus and many other players who are showing up in our new PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations tool:

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Fast Break

Cole Anthony is another elite value target on DraftKings, and like Jones, he also owns a Bargain Rating of 99%. He’s increased his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for just over 27 minutes in our NBA Models. Anthony has posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he’s in a good spot to do it again on Tuesday.

Delon Wright is arguably the best value option at the position on FanDuel. He’s still been priced up to $5,900, but that makes him cheaper than Jones ($7,500) and Anthony ($6,200). Wright has been nearly as effective recently, averaging 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past eight games. He also draws an outstanding matchup vs. the Pistons, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

With Ja sidelined, Desmond Bane should take over as the Grizzlies’ main scoring threat. He leads the team with a 29.9% usage rate in games without Morant this season, and he’s averaged 40.08 DraftKings points in those contests. He had his offensive game working Sunday vs. the Clippers, racking up 30 points and 47.5 DraftKings points in 35.4 minutes.

Despite that performance, Bane’s price tag has stayed pretty stagnant on DraftKings. He was priced at just $7,600 for his most recent contest, and he’s been priced in the same ballpark when playing alongside Morant for most of the year. With Ja out of the picture, his $7,800 salary is simply too cheap.

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Value

Jalen Brunson is going to be an important player to monitor on Tuesday. He missed the team’s last contest, a thrilling double-overtime win over the Celtics. Immanuel Quickley moved into the starting lineup in his absence and put together arguably the best game of his career, finishing with 38 points, eight boards, seven assists, and four steals across 55.1 minutes.

The playing time is the most encouraging part of that stat line. Quickley played the entire second half vs. the Celtics, including both overtime periods. He was ultimately on the bench for less than three minutes all game, and Quickley is an outstanding per-minute producer. If he’s going to see that much playing time, he’s an absurd value at $5,000 on DraftKings. If Brunson is unable to go for the second straight game, Quickley becomes one of the strongest values on a slate loaded with them.

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Fast Break

Tyrese Maxey is back to playing big minutes in Philly. He had a brief stretch where he came off the bench, but he’s now logged at least 37 minutes in three of his past four games. He’s scored at least 30.0 FanDuel points in four straight, making him a nice option at $6,400.

Khris Middleton is an interesting option on FanDuel, where his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%. He’s played limited minutes for most of the year, and that doesn’t figure to change Tuesday vs. the Magic. However, the team will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday. Middleton has seen a +12.5% usage bump with both players off the floor this season, so he should be highly effective in his limited minutes.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It never feels great to roster Kelly Oubre Jr. He’s pretty one-dimensional for fantasy purposes, with the vast majority of his value coming from scoring. If his shot isn’t falling – like in his last contest – it’s tough for him to return value.

Fortunately, Oubre is not shy about letting it fly. He’s attempted at least 15 shots in each of his past three games, and with LaMelo Ball out of the lineup, there’s no reason to expect much to change Tuesday vs. the Knicks. Prior to his last outing, Oubre had scored at least 41.75 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, including a game with 50.5 DraftKings points. That gives him a nice ceiling at $7,200.

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Value

Josh Green isn’t the best per-minute producer, but he’s playing too much to ignore at the moment. He’s currently projected for just under 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone that costs just $3,800 on DraftKings. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.01 (per the Trends tool). He doesn’t offer nearly the same upside as some of the value guards, but he’s a viable option in stars-and-scrubs builds.

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Fast Break

Dillon Brooks will return to the lineup following a one-game suspension, and he’s priced at just $4,200 on DraftKings. That’s very reasonable with Morant out of the lineup. Brooks has seen a +6.9% usage bump in games without Morant this season, and he’s averaged just over a fantasy point per minute in those contests.

Grayson Allen is another member of the Bucks who should benefit from their current injury situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +5.2% with Giannis and Holiday off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. That represents a significant bump from his average of 0.65 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for more than 30 minutes vs. the Magic. He’s an excellent buy-low target on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jaren Jackson Jr. hasn’t gotten enough credit for his massive season. He is one of the favorites to take home the Defensive Player of the Year award, but he has far more going for him than just defense. Overall, he’s averaged 1.36 FanDuel points per minute for the year, albeit in limited minutes.

Jackson’s playing time has ticked up as the year has progressed, and he’s averaged 31.4 minutes in his past three contests. His numbers should only continue to rise with more playing time, and he should be more involved offensively for as long as Ja is sidelined. He’s seen a +3.9% usage bump in games without Morant this season, and he racked up 43.0 FanDuel points without Ja on Sunday. He’s a strong pay-up option against a Lakers’ squad that has struggled with big men this season.

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Value

Just in case there wasn’t enough value for you on this slate, Marvin Bagley should remain firmly in play for the Pistons. We’re still waiting on official statuses for Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart, but if both players are sidelined, Bagley is going to be tough to avoid at $5,500 on DraftKings. He’s played 34.1 and 36.3 minutes in back-to-back games, and Bagley has historically been an outstanding per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute since rejoining the Pistons’ lineup five games ago, and he erupted for 48.25 DraftKings points on Saturday. He wasn’t nearly as impressive Monday vs. the Blazers, but he should continue to deliver fantasy value as long as he’s getting minutes.

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Fast Break

Bobby Portis should be one of the biggest beneficiaries for the Bucks on Tuesday. He’s seen a decrease in per-minute productivity over the past month, but he’s averaged 1.13 FanDuel points per minute with Giannis and Holiday off the floor this season. He should also see a bit more playing time than usual, giving him plenty of upside at $6,200.

Xavier Tillman is another excellent value option at the position. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Tillman has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62 vs. the Lakers.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Paying up for both of the stud centers on this slate – Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis – is definitely doable. Davis has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, and you can use one of them in the utility spot on DraftKings. They have two of the three highest ceiling projections on the slate, along with Luka Doncic, and the opportunity cost at center isn’t quite as high as it is in the backcourt. There are four point guards with a projected Plus/Minus of at least +6.37 on DraftKings, but there aren’t any true centers that fit that description. That means you’re not sacrificing as much value by using Embiid or Davis as you are with Luka.

If you’re only going with one of the stud centers, Davis deserves to get the nod. He’s been a beast with LeBron James out of the lineup this season, averaging just under 56 DraftKings points per game. He’s scored at least 60.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests, so his $10,800 salary is very reasonable. The Grizzlies are a good defensive team, but they’ve also played at the third-fastest pace this season.

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Value

Mitchell Robinson is yet another player with a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings. I’m not sure if their pricing algorithm has a bug, but there are a lot of bad price tags on Tuesday’s slate. Robinson has posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in four of them. You’ll gladly take that type of production at just $4,900.

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Fast Break

Brook Lopez is another potential option for the Bucks. He’s played some excellent basketball of late, averaging 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should see a bit more work than usual vs. the Magic. Orlando is surprisingly tough against opposing big men, but Lopez is unique with his ability to stretch the floor.