NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Mar. 28): Brandon Ingram is a Scoring Machine

Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Cavaliers aren’t a team that typically offers a ton of offensive upside. They play at the slowest pace in the league, and their average of 112.2 points per game ranks 24th. However, they draw one of the best possible matchups Tuesday vs. the Hawks. Atlanta has been a fantasy goldmine since the All-Star break, ranking fourth in pace and 26th in defensive efficiency. As a result, this game leads the slate with a 237.0-point total, and the Cavs are implied for a robust 119.75 points.

Darius Garland hasn’t been particularly effective recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -2.99 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $7,400 vs. the Hawks, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.08 with a comparable salary this season (per the Trends tool), so he can definitely pay off this price tag in a phenomenal matchup.

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Value

Ja Morant is doubtful for the Grizzlies, which means it’s safe to fire up Tyus Jones. Jones has been an outstanding option for the Grizzlies all season, and he’s increased his production to 1.08 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also been the team’s top fantasy producer in games without Morant this season, leading the team with an average of 36.31 DraftKings points per game.

Jones’ salary has also come back to reality after peaking during Morant’s extended absence. He’s $5,300 on DraftKings and $5,600 on FanDuel, and he’s impossible to ignore at those price tags.

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Fast Break

The Hornets are limping toward the finish line. They’re expected to be without Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward on Tuesday, and Kelly Oubre is also questionable. That doesn’t leave the team with a ton of options on offense. Expect Dennis Smith Jr. to pick up the slack. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for around 30 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s also an elite value on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary comes with a position-high Bargain Rating of 95%.

Jordan Poole has largely been an afterthought in games with Steph Curry active this season, but he’s erupted for 43.75 and 39.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. That’s outstanding upside for someone who costs just $5,900 on DraftKings, especially in a solid matchup vs. the Pelicans. The Warriors’ implied team total of 121.5 points ranks first on the slate, and they’ve been phenomenal at home all season.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Thunder were widely expected to contend for another top draft pick this season, but they would be in the Western Conference play-in tournament if the season ended today. They’ve gotten outstanding production from a number of young players this season, including Josh Giddey. He’s been particularly impressive of late, increasing his output to 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s also finished with at least 46.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games.

That’s enough to put Giddey on the radar against the Hornets. Believe it or not, the Thunder are whopping 10.5-point favorites in this matchup, and their implied team total of 120.25 ranks second on the slate. Giddey’s 10 Pro Trends rank second on the position on FanDuel, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

There’s also a chance that the Thunder could be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s currently listed as questionable, and Giddey would be an even stronger play if he’s ultimately ruled out. Giddey has taken over as the team’s primary distributor with SGA off the floor, giving him a bit more upside than usual.

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Value

The Hornets have started Svi Mykhailiuk in three straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each. He’s not the most exciting player on a per-minute basis, but he’s made up for it with outstanding volume. He’s projected for another 33 minutes on Tuesday, which is a ton of playing time for a $4,200 player. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.73 on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

Desmond Bane is another player who should benefit from the likely absence of Morant. He leads the team with a usage rate of 28.4% in games without Morant this season, and his price has decreased by -$500 after his last game. Add in a solid matchup vs. the Magic, and there’s plenty to like with Bane on Tuesday.

Donovan Mitchell also warrants consideration for the Cavaliers. Like Garland, his fantasy production has been down recently, but that’s resulted in a reduction in salary. Mitchell has also been very aggressive offensively of late, posting a usage rate of at least 34.9% in three of his past four games. That’s a nice increase from his season average of 31.7%, so there’s no reason his cold spell should continue.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram wasn’t really needed in the Pelicans’ win over the Blazers on Monday. They cruised to a 34-point victory, limiting Ingram to just 31.3 minutes. However, he still finished with 29 points, his fifth game with at least 29 points in his past six contests. His peripherals have also been strong over that time frame, which has allowed Ingram to increase his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

The Warriors are a solid matchup for Ingram to keep producing. They’ve been much better defensively at home than on the road, but the Warriors have still played at the fastest pace in the league this season. This game ranks second on the slate with a 234.0-point total, so there should be plenty of scoring.

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Value

Scottie Barnes is a bit more expensive than the typical “value” option, but there’s no denying he’s one of the best options at the position on DraftKings. His $6,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he racked up 35.75 DraftKings points in 32 minutes in his last contest. He should see a bit more playing time on Tuesday, and Barnes has averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season. The matchup vs. the Heat isn’t ideal, but this is simply too good a price tag to pass up.

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Fast Break

If Oubre is available for the Hornets, he’s not going to be shy about letting it fly. Oubre has never met a shot attempt he didn’t think he could make, and his usage rate skyrockets with all the currently unavailable members of the Hornets off the floor. He’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s another player who’s underpriced at $6,800 on DraftKings.

Jalen Williams has been the most surprising rookie this season. Not much was expected from the No. 12 pick out of Santa Clara, but he has blossomed into an awesome role player for the Thunder. He’s increased his production to 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and like Giddey, he would be asked to take on a larger role if SGA is ruled out.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

P.J. Washington is the clear top choice at power forward on FanDuel, where his $7,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. His 10 Pro Trends also rank second at the position, and he’s going to have to do some heavy lifting for the shorthanded Hornets. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.2% with Rozier, Hayward, LaMelo Ball, and Cody Martin off the floor this season, and that figure jumps to +10.3% when removing Oubre as well. Washington has racked up at least 46.4 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’s posted a usage rate of at least 31.4% in three straight. As long as he continues to play, $7,000 is too cheap given the current state of the Hornets’ roster.

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Value

There aren’t a ton of strong punt plays on this slate, with most of the value coming in the $5,000-$6,000 range on DraftKings. However, Santi Aldama could be a potential exception. He should pick up a few additional minutes if Morant is ruled out, and Aldama has shown the ability to rack up fantasy points quickly. In his last two games with at least 26 minutes, he’s responded with 20.5 and 45.0 DraftKings points. That gives him a solid combination of floor and ceiling at just $3,900 on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Draymond Green has started to play a bit more as the Warriors push for a guaranteed playoff spot in the Western Conference. He’s played at least 33.8 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season. That gives him a good chance to pay off his $6,200 salary in an excellent matchup.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has had an outstanding season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on FanDuel. He’s also been one of the biggest beneficiaries in games without Morant this season, increasing his usage rate by +3.6%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Jonas Valanciunas is quite possibly the most frustrating player in NBA DFS. He has the potential to absolutely dominate games, which he’s done quite a bit recently. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past six games, and he just narrowly missed in the lone exception. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.41 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is easily the top mark among Tuesday’s centers.

That said, it always feels like once you start to trust Valanciunas, he pulls the rug out from under you. Fortunately, Valanciunas isn’t expected to be super popular on this slate. His ownership projection is actually under 10% on FanDuel, so perhaps we can avoid the rug pull vs. the Warriors.

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Value

The main reason why Valanciunas isn’t expected to be more popular is that Nick Richards stands out as an excellent value. Mark Williams has returned to the lineup, but head coach Steve Clifford told reporters that Williams would sit out Tuesday’s contest. Richards will still cede some minutes to Kai Jones, but he’s expected to see the bulk of the playing time. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s underpriced across the industry.

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Fast Break

Just when it seemed like Xavier Tillman wasn’t going to be a thing anymore, he sucks us back in with 44.1 FanDuel points over 30.8 minutes in his last contest. The playing time is the most encouraging sign, and he’s expected to see another 27 minutes on Tuesday. That should be enough for him to return value.

Mo Wagner is one of my favorite DFS centers. He’s always super active when he’s on the floor, and he’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s also very affordable at just $3,500 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. His minutes are shaky, but he has some upside at this minimal salary.