NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Mar. 21): Target Kawhi Leonard for Surging Clippers

Tuesday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

I’m not sure why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is still priced below $10,000 on DraftKings. It’d be one thing if he was playing limited minutes while the team tried to tank, but that clearly isn’t what’s going on in OKC. The Thunder may have been expected to tank at the beginning of the year, but they have massively defied expectations to a 35-36 record. They’ve also won seven of their past 10 games, so a spot in the play-in tournament is well within their grasp.

As a result, SGA has played at least 34.9 minutes in each of his past seven games. He’s scored at least 48.75 DraftKings points in all but one, and he’s increased his production to 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Overall, SGA has been priced below $10,000 in 27 previous games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.04 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He also owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.78 vs. the Clippers, so there’s no reason to shy away from him on this slate.

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Value

Devonte’ Graham is currently questionable for the Spurs, but he should be a big part of their offense if he suits up. The team is expected to be without a host of key contributors on Tuesday, including Devin Vassell, Jeremy Sochan, Tre Jones, and Zach Collins.

Graham has increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his past 13 games. He’s scored at least 28.25 DraftKings points in five of his past six contests, so he’s underpriced at just $5,000.

If Graham is unable to go, Malaki Branham would take over as the preferred value point guard option in San Antonio.

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Fast Break

Killian Hayes is another strong value on DraftKings, where his $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s increased his production to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s racked up at least 34.5 minutes in four of his past five games. The Pistons are massive 14-point underdogs Tuesday vs. the Hawks, but Hayes’ minutes have still been pretty safe despite playing in plenty of blowouts.

Trae Young is coming off a poor showing in his last contest, finishing with just 17.8 FanDuel points vs. the Spurs. However, he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his five previous contests, and he’s averaged 1.41 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is projected for less than 5% ownership, making him an intriguing tournament option.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Pelicans have arguably the best matchup of the day. They’re taking on the Spurs, who have been a fantasy goldmine this season. They rank fifth in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency, and the Pelicans are implied for 122.5 points. There’s some blowout risk in this spot – the Pels are 13-point favorites – but they have massive offensive upside if this game stays competitive.

C.J. McCollum has handled a monster workload recently, playing at least 38.9 minutes in back-to-back games. He put together 51.7 FanDuel points in his last outing, which was a similarly good matchup against the Rockets.

McCollum only has PG eligibility on DraftKings, but his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. Wherever you play him, he’s a strong option.

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Value

There isn’t a true “value” option at shooting guard on this slate, but Josh Giddey stands out as an outstanding per-dollar choice on FanDuel. He’s priced at just $7,300, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. That’s the top mark at the position by a considerable margin.

Giddey has also been playing some excellent basketball of late. He’s increased his production to 1.18 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.00 over his past 10 games. He hasn’t been quite as impressive over his past two games, but that’s why his price tag has dipped by -$1,000 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Clippers. Overall, it’s an outstanding buy-low opportunity.

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Fast Break

Like Giddey, Franz Wagner is another second-year player who seems underpriced on FanDuel. He’s coming off a huge game in his last outing, racking up 46.1 FanDuel points vs. the Lakers, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models.

A.J. Griffin has some sneaky appeal for the Hawks. He’s played around 20 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 18.25 DraftKings points in both. He’s expected to see a similar workload on Tuesday, which gives him a chance to return value at just $3,400. There’s also the chance that he plays a bit more than usual if this game turns into a blowout.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Keldon Johnson has had an up-and-down season as the Spurs’ top scorer. He’s averaged a career-best 21.8 points per game, but it has come at the expense of his efficiency. He shot 39.8% from 3-point range last year, but that figure is down to just 32.8% this season. Overall, his 51.0% effective field goal percentage is the worst mark of his career.

Still, volume is king in NBA DFS, and Johnson has seen plenty of volume recently. He’s racked up at least 40.5 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he should see a large workload given the team’s current injury situation. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.3% with Vassell, Sochan, and Jones off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.14 DraftKings points per minute.

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Value

Trey Murphy is priced at a discount at just $5,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%. He’s evolved into a huge part of the Pelicans’ rotation this season, racking up at least 36.8 minutes in seven of his past eight games. He’s also seen a slight uptick in production recently, averaging 0.83 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He has plenty of appeal at that price tag in a juicy matchup vs. the Spurs.

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Fast Break

Sticking with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram is another elite option on FanDuel. He’s also priced at a discount – his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87% – and his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. He’s another player who has commanded a massive workload for the Pels recently, logging at least 37.5 minutes in seven of his past eight games.

Keita Bates-Diop is currently projected for 25 minutes for the Spurs, which should be enough for him to return value. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Clippers have prioritized load management for most of the year, but they’ve started to ramp things up in their push for the playoffs. They’re currently in fifth place in the Western Conference, but the margins in the West are extremely thin. The fourth-place Suns are separated from the 12th-place Pelicans by just four games, so there’s still plenty at stake over the final few weeks.

With that in mind, it’s not surprising that the Clippers have started leaning on their star players. That includes Kawhi Leonard. He’s played at least 36.1 minutes in his past five games, and he hit nearly 40 minutes in his last outing. He’s currently projected for more than 37 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark at the position.

With that much playing time, it’s hard to look past Leonard at just $9,700. He’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.74 with a comparable salary and minute projection, including a mark of +3.23 this season. This game also features the second-highest total on the slate at 238.5 points, so Leonard checks a lot of boxes.

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Value

Sandro Mamukelashvili has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and he’s expected to handle most of the center minutes for the Spurs with Collins out of the lineup. He’s currently projected for 28.2 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s a better value on DraftKings, but the added positional flexibility makes him viable across the industry.

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Fast Break

Marvin Bagley stands out as an outstanding value on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. He’s always been a solid fantasy producer when given the opportunity to play consistent minutes, and he’s coming off 29.6 minutes in his last outing. His matchup vs. the Hawks is also a good one, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.22.

Paolo Banchero has struggled after an outstanding start to the year, and he’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in four straight games on DraftKings. However, his salary has dropped to just $7,200, which gives him some buy-low appeal vs. the Wizards. They’ve been a solid matchup for big men this season, giving Banchero an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.88.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

James Wiseman may not be a stud in the truest sense of the word, but he has stud-like upside on Tuesday’s slate. He’s currently projected for the fourth-most fantasy points at the position, and he’s scored at least 39.75 DraftKings points in two of his past four games. His most recent performance came against the Heat, who are an infinitely tougher matchup than the Hawks.

Atlanta has been crushed by opposing centers all year. They’ve allowed the third-most points in the paint per game and are 24th in rebound rate, which plays right into Wiseman’s biggest strengths. Add it all up, and he leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +7.32.

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Value

On the other side of that matchup, the Hawks have a pair of viable center options in Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu. They’ve been splitting the center minutes pretty evenly all year, and both players are projected for between 22 and 26 minutes vs. the Pistons. Capela has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while Okongwu has averaged 1.15.

Capela grades out slightly better in our NBA Models, but Okongwu stands out as the better pure value. He’s nearly -$1,000 cheaper than Capela on DraftKings, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

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Fast Break

Wendell Carter Jr. has seen a massive uptick in production recently, averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. His playing time is also trending upward, which is an excellent combination. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games, and he racked up 57.0 DraftKings points two games ago vs. the Clippers. He’s a solid selection at $6,900.

Carter stands out as one of the best targets of the day using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations:

Kristaps Porzingis has scored at least 50.2 FanDuel points in four of his past nine games, giving him a solid ceiling at $9,000. His 11 Pro Trends are the second most at the position, while his 81% Bargain Rating is third.