NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Jan. 3): Domantas Sabonis in Smash Spot

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Out of Thursday’s three games, the matchup between the Kings and Jazz stands out as the clear top target for fantasy purposes. Not only does it have the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points, but it also features the lowest spread, with the Jazz listed as 3.5-point home favorites. Ultimately, Utah’s implied team total of 123.0 ranks first on the slate, while Sacramento’s mark of 119.5 ranks third.

Jordan Clarkson stands out as a strong option for Utah. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, and he’s increased his production to 1.04 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has similar projections to De’Aaron Fox and Jrue Holiday in our NBA Models, but he comes at a significant discount compared to both players.

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Value

Sticking with the Jazz, Mike Conley represents an outstanding value on DraftKings. His $5,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 74%, and his matchup vs. the Kings results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76. That’s the top mark at the position.

Conley’s per-minute production is down over the past month, but he’s started to turn things around of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, including an outing with 41.25 DraftKings points. He also had 34.0 DraftKings points two games ago in this same matchup, and he provides a nice combination of ceiling and floor for his price tag.

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Fast Break

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the most expensive option at the position, and none of Thursday’s other point guards can match his upside. He’s cooled down a bit after a torrid start to the year, but he’s still averaged a stout 1.40 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a slightly better option on FanDuel, where his $10,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 76%.

Bradley Beal has missed the past three games for the Wizards, and he’s officially questionable vs. the Bucks. Monte Morris has seen a nice spike in his absence, scoring at least 32.0 DraftKings points in two of his past three contests. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.3% and his assist rate by +1.4% with Beal off the floor this season, so he’d have more appeal than usual if Beal is sidelined again.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Josh Giddey stands out as an excellent stud option on DraftKings. He’s underpriced at just $6,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. Historically, players with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salary have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.66 (per the Trends tool). Giddey has also been a strong source of value recently, posting a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games.

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Value

Malik Beasley has taken over Clarkson’s old role as the sixth man in Utah. His goal is to come off the bench and try to score as many points as possible, and he’s been successful at it for most of the year. He’s averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s coming off 26.25 DraftKings points in his last outing. Beasley is currently projected for just under 25 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be enough to pay off his current price tag.

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Fast Break

Marcus Smart is one of the top options at the position on FanDuel. He’s averaging a career-best 7.4 assists per game this season, which helps make up for any deficiencies he has as a scorer. He’s averaged 0.88 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he has the upside to play more than 36 minutes if this game stays competitive. There’s definitely some blowout risk vs. the Thunder, but they’ve also played at the second-fastest pace this season. That should give the Celtics a few more possessions than usual.

Malik Monk is questionable with a shoulder injury, but he’s worth considering in tournaments if he’s able to suit up. Monk has averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season, and very few players in his price range can match his upside.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Jayson Tatum has gotten most of the attention for the Celtics this season, but there hasn’t been much of a difference between him and Jaylen Brown for fantasy purposes. Tatum has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, while Brown is at 1.31. Given the difference in salary, that makes Brown the superior option Tuesday.

Brown remains one of the best pure values on FanDuel, where his $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%. He leads all players with 13 Pro Trends, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.98 over his past 10 games. Brown also never seems to get as much ownership as Tatum, increasing his value in tournaments.

Value

Grant Williams is one of the best salary-savers on DraftKings, where his $3,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. He’s currently projected for just over 25 minutes in our NBA Models, and Williams has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute this season. He also has a bit more upside than usual, leading all small forwards with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.62.

Fast Break

Harrison Barnes is another solid value on DraftKings. Like Williams, he doesn’t provide the most exciting ceiling, but he’s projected for a solid 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with a comparable salary and minute projection have averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.31. Barnes has personally fit that description on 15 previous occasions this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.73.

Kyle Kuzma would be another beneficiary for the Wizards if Beal is unable to suit up. He’s seen a +2.5% usage bump with Beal off the floor this season, and he’s scored at least 37.1 FanDuel points in two of his past three games sans Beal.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the most expensive option on this slate, and the gap between him and the rest of the field is wider than usual. There are no other mega studs available, so Giannis leads all players in median and ceiling projection by nearly 10 points.

However, Giannis has been far from a sure thing of late. He does have back-to-back games with at least 81.0 DraftKings points, but both of those games came with Holiday out of the lineup. Holiday’s return makes Giannis a bit of a riskier proposition, but he’s still averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute while sharing the court with Holiday. He’s dominated in terms of scoring and rebounding of late, and Holiday doesn’t figure to have a huge impact on Giannis in either department.

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Value

Kelly Olynyk missed some time for the Jazz recently, but he’s back at full strength. He racked up 33.5 minutes in his last outing, and if Olynyk is going to play that much moving forward, he’s underpriced at $5,200 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%, and Olynyk has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season.

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Fast Break

Lauri Markkanen has been phenomenal in his first season with the Jazz, and he’s been particularly good of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of seven games on FanDuel, including each of his past four. He’s increased his fantasy output to 1.19 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, yet his salary remains a very reasonable $8,700. It comes with a Bargain Rating of 84%, and his matchup vs. the Kings results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.07.

The Thunder’s Jaylin Williams – not to be confused with Jalen Williams – has been forced into a larger role given all their frontcourt injuries of late. He hasn’t been particularly effective, but he’s worth some consideration at $4,100 on FanDuel. He’s currently projected for just under 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should give him a chance to return value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis doesn’t get enough credit for his diverse skillset. If you squint really hard, you can see some shades of Nikola Jokic in his game. There’s obviously only one Jokic, but Sabonis is probably the closest thing to him.

Sabonis has put his full array of skills on display recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +8.03 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and only Giannis has been better among Tuesday’s options.

Sabonis should be able to do some damage in this matchup. The Jazz rank dead last in terms of points in the paint allowed, which is where Sabonis does most of his work offensively. He leads the position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%.

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Value

Robert Williams stands out as arguably the best value of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’s averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute since joining the team’s rotation. His matchup vs. the Thunder also comes with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.82.

However, keep an eye on the injury report. Williams is listed as questionable due to injury management, even though this is an island game. If he’s unable to go, Al Horford would take over as an elite target at the center position.

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Fast Break

Daniel Gafford has surprisingly been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Beal injury. He’s racked up at last 24.7 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 28.0 DraftKings points in each. Gafford has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he would have plenty of appeal if he’s looking at another extended workload.