NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Jan. 10): No Shortage of Value Plays

Tuesday features a seven-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

There’s a chance that Joel Embiid could be forced to miss his fourth straight game when the 76ers take on the Pistons. He’s currently questionable with a foot injury, but the 76ers should be able to take care of business even without Embiid on Tuesday. They’re currently listed as 12.5-point favorites, and the Pistons rank 29th in defensive efficiency. Ultimately, it should surprise no one if the team holds out their star big man for one more night.

In that scenario, James Harden would become one of the top studs on the slate. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +5.8% with Embiid off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.45 DraftKings points per minute. He racked up a triple-double and 57.75 DraftKings points against the Pistons on Sunday, and he did it in just 28.1 minutes. Harden typically plays closer to 38 minutes in competitive contests, so he has significantly more upside if Embiid is out again on Tuesday.

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Value

Killian Hayes has started to show some of the promise that caused him to be the No. 7 pick in the 2020 NBA Draft. He’s taken full advantage of the injury to Cade Cunningham, and he’s taken his game to another level recently. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s scored at least 33.5 DraftKings points in five of his past six games. That includes 47.5 DraftKings points in his last outing, so he provides an excellent combination of floor and ceiling. He’s way underpriced on DraftKings, where his $5,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Fast Break

Gabe Vincent is another potential value option at point guard. He’s priced at just $3,300 on DraftKings, and he should see a nice spike in playing time given the Heat’s injury situation. They’re going to be without Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, and Bam Adebayo, and Vincent has increased his usage rate by +5.4% with all three players off the floor. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.43 (per the Trends tool).

Damian Lillard stands out as a solid buy-low option on FanDuel. His price tag has decreased by around -$1,000 over his past 10 games, and his $9,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the second-most at the position, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 118.25 ranks fourth on the slate.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Donovan Mitchell revenge game? He’ll face his old team in Utah, and the Jazz have been an extremely favorable matchup for fantasy purposes this season. They rank 26th in defensive efficiency and eighth in pace, so the Cavs have a bit more scoring potential than usual.

Most of the damage against the Jazz has been done on the interior, but they’ve been shredded from behind the 3-point line of late. They’ve allowed 14.7 3-pointers over their past three games, which is tied for the second-most in the league. Mitchell has been the Cavs’ top 3-point threat this season, leading the team in 3-pointers made and attempted per game.

Mitchell is a particularly appealing option on FanDuel, where his $8,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Value

There are plenty of strong values at guard on Tuesday, but Duane Washington Jr. is one of the best. The Suns are absolutely decimated at the moment, with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Cam Payne, and Cameron Johnson all sidelined with injuries.

Washington posted an absurd 42.6% usage rate with all four players out of the lineup on Sunday, racking up 31.25 DraftKings points over 25 minutes. He’s projected for a similar workload on Tuesday, and Washington has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s capable of doing a lot of damage in limited playing time.

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Fast Break

Max Strus is another potential beneficiary for the Heat on Tuesday. He’s projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. With Lowry, Adebayo, and Herro off the floor, it wouldn’t be a shock if he improves his per-minute efficiency in this spot.

Paul George is currently dealing with a hamstring injury, while Reggie Jackson played just 7.7 minutes on Sunday. That opened up plenty of minutes for Terance Mann, who responded with 34.0 DraftKings points. Mann has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he has plenty of upside at $4,000 if he sees a comparable workload on Tuesday.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kawhi Leonard figures to be the biggest beneficiary from the absence of George. Leonard was eased into action by the Clippers this season, but he’s back to playing a full workload. He racked up just under 38.5 minutes in his last contest, and Leonard is capable of doing some serious damage with that much playing time. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.50 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, including 49.4 FanDuel points vs. the Hawks on Sunday.

Leonard has been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but he’s reasonable at $8,400 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 90%, albeit in a tough matchup vs. the Mavericks.

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Value

Hamidou Diallo has been freed from the depths of the Pistons’ bench recently. Diallo is a fantasy favorite given his ability to rack up fantasy points quickly, and he was a big factor for the Pistons at times last year. Diallo has picked up right where he left off, racking up 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

He saw a significant bump in playing time on Sunday, racking up 27.3 minutes vs. the 76ers. He responded with 24.75 DraftKings points, and Diallo has scored at least that much in each of his past three games with at least 20 minutes. He’s projected for 26 minutes on Tuesday, and Diallo has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.08 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

Mikal Bridges isn’t typically known as much of a fantasy option. He plays a ton of minutes for the Suns, but he’s a relatively low-usage player. That said, he may have no choice but to take on a larger role on Tuesday. Not only are the Suns already shorthanded, but Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet, and Torrey Craig are also questionable. That leaves Bridges as basically the last man standing.

Lauri Markkanen will also get a chance against his old team on Tuesday, and like Mitchell, he has thrived in a new environment. He’s easily posted the best fantasy season of his career, and his $8,200 salary on FanDuel is extremely reasonable. It results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and Markkanen has averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.33 with a comparable salary this season.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jimmy Butler stands out as the clear top stud on Tuesday’s slate. He’s been in and out of the lineup this season, but he’s healthy for the time being. The Heat didn’t even list him on their injury report for Tuesday, which is basically impossible for the Heat. I’m pretty sure they’ve listed their ball boy as questionable a couple of times this season.

Butler has been effective when on the floor this season, and he unsurprisingly sees a big boost with Adebayo, Herro, and Lowry off the floor. He doesn’t see the biggest boost from a usage perspective, but he increases his assist rate by +10.8%. He’s averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, and he has more upside than usual against the Thunder. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace in the league this season, so this is a significant pace-up spot for the Heat.

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Value

The Pistons are playing without three of their top frontcourt options at the moment. Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, and Marvin Bagley are all dealing with injuries, opening up some additional playing time for Isaiah Stewart. Stewart logged more than 35 minutes in their last contest, and he responded with 40.75 DraftKings points vs. the 76ers. That kind of production feels repeatable. Stewart has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute this season, and the 76ers frontcourt would be an exploitable matchup if Embiid is ruled out again.

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Fast Break

Pascal Siakam has had an underappreciated fantasy season. He’s posted some big numbers in Toronto, and he routinely plays close to 40 minutes per night. His average of 1.26 FanDuel points per minute ranks first at the position on Tuesday’s slate, and that’s a pretty appealing combination. His $9,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%, and he leads the position with 13 Pro Trends. He also shouldn’t command a ton of ownership, so he’s a very interesting pivot for GPPs.

Haywood Highsmith is another potential value option for the Heat. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models at just $3,100 on DraftKings. That’s a ton of playing time for someone priced essentially at the minimum.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

If Ayton is able to suit up vs. the Warriors, he stands out as an outstanding option vs. the Warriors. He’s been a solid source of value recently, scoring at least 40.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. That includes his last contest, despite playing less than 30 minutes in a brutal matchup vs. the Cavaliers.

Ayton is always the most aggressive player on the offensive end, but he wouldn’t really have a choice Tuesday given the team’s current roster. He’s increased his usage rate by +2.5% with Paul, Booker, and Payne off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute. That represents a sizable increase from his average of 1.18 overall this season.

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Value

Orlando Robinson is arguably the top value option of the day on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $3,100, and there’s a good chance he handles most of the Heat’s center minutes. Dewayne Dedmon is probable, but the team has limited him to less than 10 minutes in two games since returning to the lineup. It’s very possible he’s on a minute restriction, so Robinson could be the primary beneficiary of Adebayo’s absence.

He’s currently projected for approximately 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Robinson has been a capable fantasy producer this season. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s an absolute steal vs. the Thunder.

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Fast Break

There’s plenty of value and not a ton of studs on this slate, which makes Embiid interesting if he’s able to suit up. Most DFS players will likely avoid the stud big man in his first game back, but there aren’t a ton of players who can match his upside.

Ivica Zubac played more than 37.5 minutes in the Clippers’ last contest, and when he plays that much, he has a tremendous ceiling. He’s averaged just under a fantasy point per minute this season, and he unsurprisingly racked up 46.5 DraftKings points in his last game. His minutes are extremely volatile, but his upside makes him worth a look at $5,200.