NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Feb. 14): Show Giannis Love on Valentine’s Day

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Warriors are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back, which means the team will likely be without Klay Thompson. Steph Curry is already sidelined with an injury, so Jordan Poole could be looking at a monster workload. He’s already been a nice source of value recently, posting at least 46.0 DraftKings points in three of his past four games, and he’s been the biggest beneficiary with Thompson and Curry off the floor this season. He’s increased his usage rate by +6.8% in that scenario, resulting in an average of 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.

Poole has been priced up recently, and he does draw a difficult matchup vs. the Clippers, but he carries more upside than usual.

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Value

The Celtics are going to be the primary team target on Tuesday. Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart remain out of the lineup, while Jayson Tatum is doubtful with an illness. With all three players sidelined, there’s plenty of value to go around for the rest of the roster.

Malcolm Brogdon figures to see a significant boost in value. He’s seen a team-high +13.1% usage bump with Tatum, Brown, and Smart off the floor, and he’s also increased his usage rate by +5.0%. Overall, he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in that situation, and he’s currently projected for 28 minutes in our NBA Models. That should be more than enough for Brogdon to pay off his current price tag. Brogdon is particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,600 salary come with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

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Fast Break

Payton Pritchard is another potential option for the Celtics. He figures to be one of their top reserve options in this contest, and he’s actually projected for a few more minutes than Brogdon. Pritchard isn’t quite as impactful on a per-minute basis, but he’s also dirt cheap at $3,400. Pritchard has historically had a comparable salary and minute projection in four previous contests, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.56 (per the Trends tool).

Anfernee Simons was limited to just 27.8 minutes in Monday’s blowout win over the Lakers, but that didn’t stop him from posting a positive Plus/Minus for the seventh time in his past eight games on FanDuel. He remains extremely affordable at $6,200, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he should see a few additional shot attempts if Jerami Grant remains sidelined.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Derrick White is definitely worth the “stud” designation on Tuesday. He has played extremely well recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +9.50 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s increased his output to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.

Like Brogdon, he figures to take on a much larger burden Tuesday with the team so shorthanded. He’s increased his usage rate by +12.3% with Tatum, Brown, and Smart off the floor this season, resulting in a team-high 1.22 DraftKings points per minute. Unlike Brogdon, White should see a ton of playing time as a member of the starting unit, and he’s currently projected for nearly 38 minutes. His salary is up to $7,100 on DraftKings, but that is still way too cheap given the circumstances.

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Value

Matisse Thybulle nearly fell out of the rotation during the end of his tenure with the 76ers, but he could have a new lease on life in Portland. He put together an excellent first outing with his new squad, finishing with 34.0 DraftKings points in 26.5 minutes. He provided his usual outstanding production in the defensive categories, and he even knocked down four of his six 3-point attempts. The shooting might not be sustainable, but Thybulle is projected for more than 31 minutes at a minimum salary on DraftKings. If he’s on the floor that much, he could theoretically pay off his current price tag without a single bucket.

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Fast Break

Jrue Holiday is down to $7,500 on FanDuel, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He’s scored at least 35.8 FanDuel points in three straight games, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.32 with a comparable price tag. The Bucks’ implied team total of 117.0 doesn’t jump off the page, but it is the fourth-highest mark on what is expected to be a lower-scoring day.

Josh Okogie has racked up 32.0 and 44.0 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and he’s increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He could lose some minutes with T.J. Warren and Darius Bazley available to debut, but he’s still projected for 27 minutes in our NBA Models. That gives him a shot to return value at $4,600.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

As usual, small forward is one of the weakest positions on Tuesday’s slate. However, Paul George is worthy of consideration as a pay-up option on FanDuel. George hasn’t displayed a ton of upside recently, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his past nine games. Overall, he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.49 over his past 10 contests.

Despite his recent production, George’s price tag has come down to $8,300 on FanDuel, resulting in a position-high Bargain Rating of 98%. His 12 Pro Trends are also the second most at the position, while the Clippers’ implied team total ranks third on the slate.

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Value

Grant Williams is also questionable for the Celtics, but if he’s able to suit up, he should be busy vs. the Bucks. He’s seen a massive spike in productivity with Tatum, Brown, and Smart off the floor this season, increasing his usage rate by +10.8%. He’s also increased his assist rate by +6.1% and his rebound rate by +3.7%, so he’s almost an entirely different player in that scenario. Add it all up, and Williams increases his production to 1.03 DraftKings points per minute. He’s projected for more than 30 minutes at $4,400 on DraftKings, making him one of the best per-dollar options at the position.

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Fast Break

Khris Middleton has quietly started to ramp things up for the Bucks. He’s coming off 24.6 minutes in his last contest, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five games. I still wouldn’t expect him to play much more than 24 minutes vs. the Celtics, but he’s averaged a stout 1.44 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. If he continues to produce near that level, he can provide value at $5,400 in limited playing time.

Paolo Banchero has had an up-and-down rookie season, but he’s coming off 38.3 FanDuel points in his last outing. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he has decent upside for his current price tag.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Bucks have rattled off 10 straight wins, and they’re now 1.5 games behind the Celtics in the Eastern Conference standings. If they can grab a head-to-head win on Tuesday, they could cut the gap to just 0.5 games with more than a quarter of the season still to go.

Unsurprisingly, Giannis Antetokounmpo has been at the center of their recent success. He’s taken on an even larger workload than usual during their recent win streak, increasing his usage rate to a whopping 42.4%. Giannis was already the league leader in usage, but he’s approached levels that we’ve never seen from him previously.

All that usage, combined with his dominance on the glass, has resulted in some massive fantasy performances. He’s increased his production to 1.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.22 over his past 10 games. Giannis does come with an astronomical price tag, but no one on this slate is in the same ballpark from a ceiling perspective. There’s also enough value available that you should be able to fit him in pretty comfortably. That’s particularly true on FanDuel, where his $12,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

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Value

As if the Celtics weren’t dealing with enough injuries, Robert Williams is also questionable Tuesday with an elbow injury. Al Horford already looks like a solid value across the industry, and he would be an even stronger option than usual if Williams is unable to play. He’s currently projected for just under 32 minutes vs. the Bucks, and Horford is coming off 38.25 DraftKings points in his last outing.

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Fast Break

Drew Eubanks should continue to see a few additional minutes for the Blazers with Jusuf Nurkic out of the lineup. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven games, and he’s played at least 23.8 minutes in four of his past five. Eubanks has averaged 0.97 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to return value at $4,600.

Chris Boucher has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s capable of racking up fantasy points as quickly as anyone in his price range. His role is a bit less secure with Jakob Poeltl joining the rotation, but his price tag is very reasonable at $4,300. It comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and Boucher has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.83 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Domantas Sabonis has seen a slight dip in fantasy production of late, but he’s started to turn the corner. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 42.3 FanDuel points in four straight games.

Sabonis will have his hands full Tuesday vs. Deandre Ayton, but he stands out as a solid stud target on FanDuel. His $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%, while his 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position. His ownership should also be reasonable, making him a solid choice for tournaments.

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Value

Kyle Kuzma is questionable for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Blazers after missing the past four games. If he remains out of the lineup, Daniel Gafford should continue to see a few additional minutes in the team’s frontcourt. He’s played at least 28.3 minutes in three straight games, and Gafford is a capable per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.

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Fast Break

Sticking with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis is another potential option if Kuzma is ruled out. He’s been on a bit of a heater recently, increasing his production to 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. That’s the top mark among Tuesday’s centers, and it trails only Giannis and Damian Lillard on the entire slate.

Wendell Carter Jr. is worth some consideration at $5,700 on DraftKings. His production has trended down recently since he’s been capped at around 30 minutes per night. However, he’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s now priced at a point where he can return value with a reduced workload.