NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Dec. 6): Can Anthony Davis Keep Rolling?

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic has been priced up to a mind-boggling $13,000 on DraftKings, but he remains affordable at $11,800 on FanDuel. He’s put together a monster season through his first 22 games, averaging 33.4 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.5 assists. He leads the Mavericks in all three categories, and he also ranks first on the team in steals per game and second in blocks. There is literally nothing he can’t do on a basketball court.

Add it all up, and Doncic has averaged 1.64 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s also posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.09 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 57.1 FanDuel points in four straight games. Doncic gets to square off with a Nuggets’ squad that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, so it’s an excellent matchup to keep the good times rolling.

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Value

It’s tough to find a strong value at point guard on Tuesday, but Cory Joseph is worth some consideration at the minimum on DraftKings. He’s not playing a ton of minutes at the moment, but he’s played at least 20 minutes in three of his past five games. He’s also posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his past seven, thanks to his average of 0.87 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The Pistons played 11 players in their last contest, and only one player saw more than 29.5 minutes. If the Pistons continue to lean on their entire roster, Joseph is a decent bet to return value.

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Fast Break

Russell Westbrook is cheap enough that we can consider using him again in DFS. He’s played 28.6 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s scored at least 34.25 DraftKings points in both of them. Westbrook is still averaging a stout 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s capable of doing damage with less than 30 minutes of playing time. His $6,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 80%.

Jamal Murray has played extremely well for the Nuggets recently. He’s increased his production to 1.15 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in 14 straight games. His salary is up to $7,200 on FanDuel, but he still owns one of the better points-per-dollar projections in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Tyler Herro took home the Sixth Man of the Year award last season, but he’s transitioned to the starting lineup this year. The added responsibilities have only helped his production, as he’s averaging career-highs in both rebounds and assists per game. Herro also continues to score the ball well, and he’s racked up at least 43.25 DraftKings points in four straight games.

The Heat are getting a bit healthier, with Jimmy Butler suiting up in their past two games, but it has done nothing to slow down Herro. He posted a season-high 50.75 DraftKings points on Monday, and he draws a fantastic matchup Tuesday vs. the Pistons. They rank 29th in defensive efficiency, and the Heat’s implied team total of 114.5 ranks second on the slate.

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Value

Bruce Brown owns a Bargain Rating of 92% on FanDuel, and he’s very tough to avoid at just $5,600. He’s played at least 34.3 minutes in four straight games, and Brown has historically been an outstanding per-minute producer. He’s averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute this season, and Brown has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +8.47 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). The Mavericks are far from an ideal matchup, but Brown is basically a lock-and-load option for cash games.

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Fast Break

Jaden Ivey has been a bit of a disappointment of late, but he has increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +4.4% with Cade Cunningham off the floor, so he should continue to carry a bit more upside than usual. He’s also not expected to command a ton of ownership, making him a nice buy-low option in GPPs.

The Cavaliers’ backcourt options are always in play, especially on a three-game slate. Donovan Mitchell has a slight edge in our NBA Models in projections, but Darius Garland appears to have the superior matchup. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.01 on FanDuel, while Mitchell is at +1.55. Garland is also projected for less ownership, so I would give him the edge for GPPs.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James returns to his old stomping grounds on Tuesday. The Lakers will square off with the Cavaliers in Cleveland, and they’ve turned things around after a dreadful start to the year. The Lakers have won eight of their past 10 games, and James has been a big part of it. He’s racked up at least 55.75 DraftKings points in three of his past five games, and he’s increased his production to 1.50 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

That said, this is one of the toughest matchups James will face all season. The Cavs currently rank first in the league in defensive efficiency, and LeBron owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of -3.51 on DraftKings. There’s some merit to paying up for him at a weak position, but he is far from a necessity on this slate.

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Value

Tim Hardaway Jr. wasn’t really needed in the Mavericks’ last game, playing just 22.5 minutes in a blowout win over the Suns. However, Hardaway maintained his red-hot shooting numbers when he was on the floor, knocking down at least five 3-pointers for the fourth straight game. Hardaway is due for a bit of regression as a shooter, but he can overcome it with more playing time on Tuesday. He should see closer to 30 minutes if Tuesday’s game vs. the Nuggets is more competitive, so he’s simply too cheap at $4,400.

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Fast Break

Bojan Bogdanovic was limited to just 20.7 FanDuel points over 24 minutes in his last game, but he played more than 41 minutes in the game prior. He’s currently projected for 32 minutes in our NBA Models, and that feels like the right number. Bogdanovic has increased his usage rate by +2.1% with Cunningham off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 0.97 DraftKings points per minute. He’s a strong bounce-back candidate vs. the Heat.

Caleb Martin isn’t an exciting option, but he should be reliable at $4,600 on FanDuel. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.32 over his past 10 games. His numbers have regressed as the team has gotten healthier, but he’s expected to see around 27 minutes on Tuesday.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

It’s impossible to ignore what Anthony Davis has done recently. He’s taken over as the Lakers’ top option, channeling his offensive aggressive from his days with the Pelicans. He’s averaged 35.3 points and 15.6 rebounds over his past nine games, and he’s erupted for 99 points in his past two contests. Davis has unsurprisingly scored at least 71.0 DraftKings points in both games, including a matchup against the very good Bucks’ defense.

That’s caused AD’s price tag to skyrocket on FanDuel, but he remains affordable at $10,400 on DraftKings. It puts him well behind Doncic from a pricing perspective, but if the past two games are any indication, there isn’t much separating both players from a ceiling perspective. Davis will have to navigate the same difficult matchup as LeBron, but he leads the slate with an average of 1.81 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

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Value

Aaron Gordon is another player who has played well of late, increasing his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. Part of that was due to the absence of Nikola Jokic, but Gordon has still posted a positive Plus/Minus in two of his past three games. He’s coming off 37 minutes in his last outing, and it’s hard to imagine him failing to return value with a comparable workload vs. the Mavericks.

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Fast Break

Kevin Love disappointed in his last game, and his production varies wildly from night to night. However, it’s hard to find another player in this price range with comparable upside. He’s displayed a ceiling of more than 40 fantasy points on numerous occasions this season, so he’s always in play in tournaments.

Jarrett Allen is officially questionable vs. the Lakers, and Evan Mobley would be worth heavy consideration if he’s ruled out. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five straight games on FanDuel, and he’s seen a significant boost in his rebounding numbers with Allen inactive recently.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Bam Adebayo has been priced down to $8,000 on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a poor showing in his last outing. Still, it’s hard not to love him at his current price tag. Adebayo had scored at least 40.0 DraftKings points in each of his four previous games, and he’s increased his production to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The return of Butler should eat into his numbers a bit, but a strong matchup vs. the Pistons should make up for it. Bam owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.03 on DraftKings, which is tied for the top mark at the position.

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Value

If Allen is able to return for the Cavaliers, he would be worth some consideration at $6,300 on DraftKings. He owns a Bargain Rating of 86%, and he’s averaged right around a fantasy point per minute this season. That gives him a shot to return value even if he plays slightly less than usual in his first game back.

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Fast Break

Nikola Jokic hasn’t been quite as dominant this year as he was in his back-to-back MVP seasons, but he’s coming off 71.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. He’s increased his production to 1.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which trails only Davis on Tuesday’s slate. He’s another player that’s priced considerably cheaper than Doncic but possesses a similar ceiling.

Isaiah Stewart is another member of the Pistons who has seen inconsistent minutes of late. He’s played 27, 36.6, 26, and 12.7 minutes in his past four games, so he has a wide range of outcomes on Tuesday. However, he has increased his production to 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has some appeal at $5,800.