NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Dec. 13): Can CP3 Torch His Old Team?

Tuesday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Chris Paul is officially back for the Suns, and the team has wasted little time ramping up his workload. He played 24.1 minutes in his first game back, but he’s played at least 33.9 minutes in his past two. Despite his playing time increasing, his salary has decreased over that time frame. He’s down to just $6,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 97%. Paul may not be the same dominant player that he was in his prime, but he’s still averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season.

CP3 also draws one of the best possible matchups Tuesday vs. the Rockets. They rank 28th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve also played at an above-average pace.

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Value

Malcolm Brogdon has been a phenomenal source of value for the Celtics of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on DraftKings, including a 33.0 DraftKings-point performance in his last outing. Brogdon has increased his production to 1.19 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has the potential for a few additional minutes with Al Horford still out of the lineup. Brogdon is another player who is simply too cheap on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

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Fast Break

Andrew Wiggins remains sidelined for the Warriors, which means Jordan Poole should continue to start. He’s currently projected for 32.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and Poole has averaged 1.1 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s scored at least 30.6 FanDuel points in five straight games, and he’s displayed a ceiling of more than 46 FanDuel points during that stretch.

Jalen Green has been a volatile fantasy producer of late, posting three games with at least 38.3 FanDuel points and two games with 23.6 or less over his past five outings. That kind of volatility makes him tough to trust in cash games, but he’s very usable in tournaments. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Celtics have lost two straight games, including a 20-point loss to the Clippers in their most recent outing. That limited Jaylen Brown to just 29.7 minutes, and he finished with just 32.5 DraftKings points.

Still, there has been a lot more good than bad for Brown of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past six games, and he’s gone for at least 63.5 DraftKings points in two of them. He’s increased his production to 1.31 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the top mark among Tuesday’s shooting guards.

The Celtics are in an ideal bounce-back spot vs. the Lakers. They’ve played at the third-fastest pace this season, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 119.5 ranks first on the slate.

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Value

The Suns are already searching for someone to fill the hole left by Cameron Johnson’s injury, and now Devin Booker is sidelined with a hamstring injury. Damion Lee is one potential option. He’s coming off 33.8 minutes in his last game, and he’s projected for nearly 27 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.48 (per the Trends tool). Lee has also averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he’s a bit more productive than the typical punt play.

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Fast Break

Marcus Smart is another potential option for the Celtics on Tuesday. Like Brown, he also struggled in their last contest, finishing with a dreadful 9.75 DraftKings points across 31.6 minutes. Still, he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and should return to his usual mid-30s minutes vs. the Lakers.

Klay Thompson has been mired in a shooting slump all season, but he’s coming off a 14-26 performance in his last game. Could that be the turning point? It’s possible, but Klay has provided fantasy value even without shooting the ball well this season. He owns an average Plus/Minus of +9.37 across his past 10 games on FanDuel.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James has taken a backseat to Anthony Davis of late, who has been on a tremendous heater. However, James can still dial it up when he needs to. He poured in 35 points in his last game, and his average of 1.40 DraftKings points per minute still ranks first among Tuesday’s small forwards.

His price tag has also come down considerably from its peak, and he’s priced below $10,000 for the first time since late October. It results in a Bargain Rating of 85%, which gives him a bit of buy-low appeal against a Celtics’ squad that has struggled defensively for most of the year. His ownership should also be reasonable, increasing his appeal in tournaments.

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Value

Mikal Bridges typically carries one of the largest workloads in basketball, and he’s coming off more than 44.5 minutes in his last contest. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance vs. the Rockets, but 36-38 minutes is definitely a reasonable expectation. Bridges has also shown some improvement in his per-minute efficiency this season, averaging 0.87 FanDuel points per minute. He’s on pace for new career highs in his usage, assist, and rebound rates, so he’s underpriced at his current salary across the industry.

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Fast Break

The Bucks are a team to monitor heading into lineup lock. Jrue Holiday is currently questionable with an illness, and his absence would open up some minutes and usage for the rest of the roster. Pat Connaughton would be one potential beneficiary, and he’s been priced down to just $3,400 on DraftKings. He stands out as one of the better per-dollar options at the position.

Malik Beasley has logged at least 33.3 minutes in three straight games, and he’s responded with at least 31.5 FanDuel points in his past two. He’s been excellent on a per-minute basis this season, and he should continue to see a few additional minutes with Collin Sexton out of the lineup. He’s worth considering on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo is as cheap as he’s been all season, and it is 100% deserved. He has not displayed his usual combination of upside and consistency this season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in all but three games since the start of November. He remains one of the best per-minute producers in basketball – he’s averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute over the past month – but for some reason, he hasn’t been able to put it all together.

However, Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Warriors could be the time to buy low on him. The Warriors represent a solid matchup, ranking first in the league in pace, and the Bucks’ implied team total of 118.75 ranks second on the slate. He also might be asked to do a bit more than usual if Holiday is ruled out, and this is clearly a marquee contest. The Bucks will likely want to show well against the defending champs, so expect Giannis to bring his A game.

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Value

Dario Saric is another member of the Suns who has seen some extra run given their current injury situation. He started and played 21.4 minutes on Sunday, and Saric has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season. That gives him plenty of appeal at just $3,300 on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Larry Nance Jr. is another elite option on DraftKings, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%. Nance doesn’t typically see a ton of minutes, but he makes up for it with efficiency. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so he doesn’t need much playing time to potentially return value.

Draymond Green is a bit too cheap at $6,000 on FanDuel. He hasn’t played particularly well in his past three contests, but he’s still averaged 0.90 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He should see around 34 minutes vs. the Bucks, giving him a good shot at returning value.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Deandre Ayton has played some of the best basketball of his career recently. He’s increased his production to 1.28 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.76 over his past 10 games on DraftKings.

Ayton’s biggest knock is that he often isn’t aggressive enough looking for his offense. However, that shouldn’t be as big of an issue with Booker out of the lineup. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.1% with Booker off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.31 DraftKings points per minute. He’s way too cheap at $7,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Value

Alperen Sengun is someone who has provided value for most of the year, but he’s hit a bit of a snag in recent weeks. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in just three of his past 10 games on DraftKings, which his caused his price tag to drop to just $5,800.

Still, it’s hard to envision Sengun struggling forever. He’s an extremely talented big man, and he’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He’s going to bounce back eventually, and when he does, he should provide tremendous value at his current salary.

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Fast Break

Domantas Sabonis leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%. Sabonis failed to return value in his last game, but he had posted a positive Plus/Minus in his previous four outings. De’Aaron Fox is currently questionable with a foot injury, so Sabonis could be a bit busier than usual.

Kevon Looney is one of the most consistent producers at the center position, posting a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel. He’s also displayed a bit of a ceiling recently, reaching at least 31.9 FanDuel points in two of his past five games. His price tag remains reasonable across the industry, making him a solid choice in all formats.