NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Apr. 4): Giannis Antetokounmpo Cannot be Stopped

Tuesday features a 13-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

We have just one week remaining in the NBA regular season, and there is still plenty left to be decided. Most of the attention has been placed on the Western Conference – deservedly so – but there are also some interesting battles in the East. The Hawks and Raptors are currently tied in the standings, with the Hawks holding the No. 8 seed via the tiebreaker. The difference between eighth and ninth in the standings is massive, with the No. 9 seed needing to win two straight games to get into the postseason. The No. 8 seed needs to win just one of two, and they get the benefit of homecourt if they have to play a second game.

With that in mind, expect the Raptors to take their contest vs. the Hornets very seriously on Tuesday. Nick Nurse already routinely plays his starters as much as any coach in baseball, and guys like Fred VanVleet could be even busier than usual. He’s coming off a monster performance vs. the Hornets on Sunday, racking up 63.25 DraftKings points on 20 points and 20 assists. VanVleet has increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he can clearly find success in this matchup vs. Charlotte. He leads the position with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.64 on DraftKings.

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Value

It seems like the Wizards have decided to start their vacation early. They’re going to be without Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, and Monte Morris on Tuesday, leaving the team with an uninspiring group of players for their matchup vs. the Bucks.

There’s definitely some blowout potential in this contest – the Wizards are 13-point home underdogs – but they should provide some DFS value. Delon Wright figures to take over as one of their primary scoring threats. The Wizards haven’t played a ton of minutes with all of the currently unavailable players off the floor this season, but Wright increases his usage rate by +11.3% in that scenario. He’s averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute in that split, and he’s projected for more than 31 minutes in our NBA Models.

Jordan Goodwin might be an even better value at $4,000 on DraftKings. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes on Tuesday, but he’s been the superior per-minute producer over the past month.

Both players stand out as elite values on DraftKings, where each has a Bargain Rating of at least 95%.

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Fast Break

Killian Hayes continues to stand out as an excellent target on FanDuel. He’s priced at $6,000 for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Heat, and he’s averaged a strong 0.94 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s projected for just under 33 minutes in our NBA Models, which should give him a great chance to return value.

Jrue Holiday is one of the best pure values at the position on FanDuel, where his $7,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton due to injury management, and Holiday has seen a +1.6% usage bump in games without Middleton this season. He erupted for the best performance of his career in his last game without Middleton, racking up 51 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Zach LaVine has had a quiet year by his standards, but he’s coming off a monster showing in his last outing. He finished with 56.1 FanDuel points over 34.7 minutes vs. the Grizzlies thanks to 36 points and nine assists.

LaVine is in another great spot for success Tuesday vs. the Hawks. Atlanta has been one of the best matchups in fantasy of late, ranking fourth in pace and 27th in defensive efficiency since the All-Star break. LaVine leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.

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Value

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is about as boring as it gets for DFS purposes, but he’s tough to ignore at $4,100 on DraftKings. He’s projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models, which is a ton of playing time for someone at his price tag. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.46 (per the Trends tool).

KCP also has more upside than usual in a juicy matchup vs. the Rockets. They’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in basketball this season, and the Nuggets are implied for 119.75 points. There’s also a chance the team could be without Nikola Jokic, which would give KCP another boost.

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Fast Break

The Heat are another team with a strong matchup on Tuesday. They’re taking on the Pistons, who rank 28th in defensive efficiency this season. Kyle Lowry is also questionable, and Tyler Herro could see a few additional opportunities if he remains out of the lineup. He stands out as one of the stronger per-dollar targets at the position across the industry.

Is $8,000 too expensive for Shaedon Sharpe? If his recent production is any indication, the answer is no. He’s scored at least 43.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he continues to play all the minutes he can handle for the shorthanded Blazers. The Blazers could get back a few players for this contest, but it still figures to be the Sharpe show vs. the Grizzlies.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Brandon Ingram is doing everything in his power to propel the Pelicans into a guaranteed playoff spot. He’s done a great job, too: The Pelicans have won seven of their past eight games, and they’re currently 0.5 games behind the Warriors in the standings.

They’ll have their hands full Tuesday vs. the Kings, but it should be a great game for fantasy purposes. The Kings have been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season, playing at an above-average pace while ranking 25th in defensive efficiency. They’re also one of the best offensive teams in the league, resulting in plenty of high-scoring affairs.

Ingram has increased his production to 1.37 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, combining excellent scoring with strong peripherals. Overall, he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.84 over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 52.5 DraftKings points in four of his past six. He’s gotten a bit more expensive across the industry, but he’s still too cheap for a matchup vs. the Kings.

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Value

Andrew Wiggins could make a return to the Warriors before the postseason, but he remains out of the lineup for Tuesday’s matchup vs. the Thunder. That keeps Donte DiVincenzo’s role in the rotation safe for the time being. DiVincenzo has been a solid per-minute producer for most of his career, and he’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He’s coming off a huge performance in his last game, totaling 42.6 FanDuel points over 31.6 minutes, and while I wouldn’t expect a repeat vs. the Thunder, he’s very capable of paying off his current price tag.

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Fast Break

The Suns own the top implied team total on the slate as they take on the tanking Spurs. That makes Kevin Durant an interesting option. He’s scored at least 30 points in his past two games, and he remains slightly priced down across the industry. There’s obviously plenty of blowout potential here, but Durant should light it up while he’s on the floor. He’s also projected for virtually no ownership, increasing his appeal for tournaments.

Corey Kispert stands out for the Wizards on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. Kispert has been a subpar per-minute producer since joining the league last season, but that has changed recently with most of the team sidelined with injuries. Kispert has racked up at least 30.6 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he posted a 29.8% usage rate in their last contest. I see no reason why that would change on Tuesday.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks are close to locking up the No. 1 seed in the East. Their magic number sits at three with just four games left to play, so they need a combination of three wins or Celtics’ losses to get the job done.

With Middleton sidelined on Tuesday, it will be up to Giannis to lead the team to a victory over the Wizards. That shouldn’t be much of an issue. Giannis has been absolutely unstoppable of late, increasing his production to 1.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s been the best per-minute producer in fantasy for quite some time, but that’s an elite stretch even for him.

Giannis also owns the best matchup among the stud tier on Tuesday, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39 vs. the Wizards. Ultimately, he owns the best per-dollar projection among all power forwards on DraftKings, so prioritizing him as your stud target makes a ton of sense.

Giannis is also popping from a fantasy perspective in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

At the other end of the pricing spectrum, J.T. Thor stands out as a solid value for the Hornets. The teams is going to be without a ton of key contributors on Tuesday, including P.J. Washington and likely Mark Williams in the frontcourt. That opens the door for Thor to play plenty of minutes vs. the Raptors.

Thor didn’t take advantage of his playing time on Sunday, finishing with just 10.0 DraftKings points in 34 minutes. However, he’s averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s far from an elite figure, but it suggests room for improvement in Tuesday’s rematch.

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Fast Break

De’Andre Hunter remains out for the Hawks, so Saddiq Bey can continue to be trusted as a value option. He’s scored at least 30.5 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he’s coming off more than 38 minutes in his last contest. Trae Young is also questionable for the Hawks, and Bey’s stock would get another bump if he’s ultimately ruled out.

Kelly Olynyk stands out as an excellent option on FanDuel, where his $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%. Olynyk should be locked into a healthy workload with Walker Kessler and possibly Lauri Markkanen out of the lineup, and he’s projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Olynyk has averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he managed 32.5 FanDuel points alongside Markkanen on Sunday.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is questionable for the Nuggets, and he hasn’t suited up for the team since Mar. 27. The team holds a three-game lead over the Grizzlies for the No. 1 seed in the rest, so they’ve used their cushion to get their star big man some rest before the playoffs.

If he suits up, he should be able to do some significant damage vs. the Rockets. Houston ranks 29th in the league in defensive efficiency, and Jokic racked up a triple-double in less than 28 minutes in their last meeting. Jokic hasn’t been quite as effective as Giannis of late, but his average of 1.70 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is still elite. Jokic’s injury designation might also scare off a few people on this slate, so he could check in with lower ownership than usual.

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Value

With Williams doubtful for the Hornets, Nick Richards should handle most of the center minute vs. the Raptors. Richards has averaged a solid 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four of his past five contests. The lone exception was his last outing, where he played just 12.6 minutes. He’s projected for closer to 30 minutes on Tuesday, so this is an excellent buy-low opportunity.

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Fast Break

Drew Eubanks has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.48 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 29.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games. He’s increased his production to 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he should continue to see plenty of playing time for the shorthanded Blazers. He remains underpriced at $5,800 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 72%.

It’s been a sad year for Rudy Gobert, who has been unable to replicate his success with the Jazz during his first year with the Timberwolves. However, he has seen a slight spike in production recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.20 over the past month on FanDuel. He stands out as one of the best pure values at center on Tuesday, where his 92% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position.