NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Apr. 25): Can Anyone Stave Off Elimination?

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

We have three potential elimination games on Tuesday, and all three teams are expected to get the job done. The Celtics, Nuggets, and Suns are all listed as double-digit favorites, so we could see three teams punch their tickets to the second round.

If the Hawks are going to survive, they’re going to need a big performance from Trae Young. He’s elevated his play over the past two games, which is a big reason why those contests have been more competitive. He racked up 58.0 DraftKings points in their Game 3 victory and follows that up with 68.25 DraftKings points in a close Game 4 loss.

Young played more than 40.5 minutes in Game 4, and he’s expected to see a comparable workload on Tuesday. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, which is easily the top mark among Tuesday’s point guards. That makes Young a massive value at just $8,600 on DraftKings. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he leads the slate with 12 Pro Trends.

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Value

Mike Conley stands out as the top value at the position on FanDuel. He’s coming off his best game of the series in Game 4, finishing with 32.4 FanDuel points across 42.6 minutes. Conley isn’t the highest-usage player, but he’s still averaged a very respectable 0.90 FanDuel points per minute for the year. He’s projected for another 38 minutes in our NBA Models, making him massively underpriced at just $6,200. His 86% Bargain Rating is tied for the second-best mark at point guard, as are his 11 Pro Trends.

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Fast Break

Jamal Murray is building a reputation as a big-game performer. His showdown vs. Donovan Mitchell in the bubble was legendary, and he’s followed that up with three excellent performances in four postseason contests this season. He scored at least 44.0 DraftKings points in his first three games vs. the Timberwolves before crashing back to 34.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. However, he played more than 40 minutes in that contest but struggled to an 8-21 shooting performance. With some better shooting luck back in Denver – where he was 22 for 44 through the first two games – he’s poised for a much bigger outing.

Malcolm Brogdon is another potential value option. The Celtics lead the slate with a 121.75-point implied team total, and they have the clear best matchup vs. the Hawks. Brogdon has also been an outstanding per-minute producer of late, averaging 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t typically play a ton of minutes, but expect him to be productive when he’s on the floor.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

It’s getting tough to ignore what Devin Booker has done in this series. He’s played all the minutes he can handle, logging at least 43.3 minutes in three of four games, and he leads the team with a 29.1% usage rate. Kevin Durant’s usage rate has been down at 24.5%, so Booker has operated as the team’s clear No. 1 scorer. That seems a bit odd, but Booker has posted a remarkable 62.6% effective field goal percentage, which is insanely good for his volume.

Booker has also chipped in solid production in the peripheral categories, resulting in some big fantasy performances. He’s scored at least 55.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, including 68.5 DraftKings points in Game 3.

With that in mind, his $9,600 salary on DraftKings feels a bit cheap. The Clippers aren’t the greatest matchup on paper, but they’re not nearly the same defensive team without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

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Value

Bogdan Bogdanovic owns a Bargain Rating of 99% on DraftKings, making him one of the best pure values on the slate. He’s been an excellent fantasy producer this season, averaging 0.90 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s increased that figure to 0.93 over the past month.

Bogdanovic’s playing time has been down over the past few games, but that figures to change with Dejounte Murray suspended. Young has seen the biggest boost in usage with Murray off the floor – another reason why he’s such an excellent play on Tuesday – but Bogdanovic should be one of the biggest winners from a playing time perspective. He’s projected for more than 38 minutes in our NBA Models, so he’s a steal at just $4,800.

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Fast Break

Jaylen Brown hasn’t had the greatest start to the postseason, scoring 44.9 FanDuel points or fewer in all four games. However, he played nearly 42.5 minutes in his last contest, which bodes well for his prospects moving forward. Brown has averaged 1.15 FanDuel points per minute for the year, so he has the potential to smash his $8,300 price tag with a comparable workload on Tuesday.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope doesn’t provide much in terms of ceiling, but he’s a very safe value play at $4,300. He’s currently projected for 35 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.72 (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Small forward is absolutely loaded on Tuesday, with Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, and Anthony Edwards all standing out as fantastic options. However, Tatum seems like the best of the bunch. His average of 1.43 DraftKings points per minute over the past month is the clear top mark of the trio, with Edwards sitting at 1.20 and Durant at 1.19. Tatum has racked up at least 52.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, despite shooting slightly worse than usual over his past two contests. Overall, he leads the trio in projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, while his ceiling projection is also tops at the position.

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Value

Norman Powell struggled to get anything going in his last contest, shooting just 4-15 from the field. He finished with just 20.3 FanDuel points in 36.7 minutes, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance in Game 5. Powell is going to have to serve as one of the team’s top scoring threats with Leonard and George sidelined. He’s seen a team-high +5.5% usage bump with both players off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.15 FanDuel points per minute.

Powell erupted for 51.5 FanDuel points without both players in Game 3, and he brings that type of upside to the table in Game 5. He’s way underpriced at $6,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 96%.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a true salary-saver at SF, you could do worse than Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He played just under 38 minutes in his last contest, and while he struggled to just 15.3 FanDuel points, he’s averaged 0.82 FanDuel points per minute for the year. NAW has been much more focused on defense than offense during the postseason, but anyone with that much playing time upside has value at $4,100.

Edwards is currently projected for less than 18% ownership on DraftKings, despite his $9,100 salary coming with a Bargain Rating of 99%. It’s going to be tough for most to justify paying that much for Edwards when Tatum is only $900 more, but Edwards has been the better DFS option during the postseason. He’s scored at least 60.25 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he played more than 45 minutes in Game 4. He could see another massive workload with the Timberwolves facing elimination once again.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns fouled out in the Timberwolves’ last contest after playing 36.3 minutes. Considering how much Edwards played in that contest, that gives Towns considerably more playing time upside on Tuesday. He’s currently projected for 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and Towns has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute for the year. That figure isn’t quite as high as it was before Edwards showed up, but it’s still an outstanding figure.

Towns’ price tag is also way down across the industry. He’s priced at just $7,800 on DraftKings and $7,900 on FanDuel, making him one of the best options of the day. He shows up in our optimal lineup simulations nearly 61% of the time on FanDuel – easily the top mark on the slate – while only Bogdanovic has a better Perfect% than Towns on DraftKings.

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Value

Saddiq Bey is another potential beneficiary of the Murray suspension. He was instrumental in the team’s Game 3 win, finishing with 29.0 DraftKings points in 26.7 minutes, and he’s been one of the biggest beneficiaries with Murray off the floor this season. He’s increased his production to 1.00 DraftKings points per minute in that scenario, giving him much more upside than usual. At just $4,200 on DraftKings, he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to potentially return value.

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Fast Break

If you are going to play Durant on Tuesday, you’re best off doing it on FanDuel. His $10,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 82%, and he’s -$800 cheaper than Tatum. Even though Durant’s scoring volume has been down during the postseason, he remains lethal from an efficiency standpoint. He’s also done a solid job in the peripheral categories, logging two double-doubles over his past four games.

Aaron Gordon is another solid rotation player to consider for the Nuggets. He hasn’t displayed much of a ceiling with the team at full strength, but he’s scored at least 28.5 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s a particularly useful option on FanDuel, where his $5,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is down to $10,800 on DraftKings, putting him in the same ballpark as the other top studs on this slate. Based on his regular season production, that seems like a mistake. He averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute, easily the top mark among Tuesday’s options. Jokic has been priced below $11,000 on just seven previous occasions this season, including when he dropped 71.75 DraftKings points on the Timberwolves in Game 4.

Outside of that eruption, Jokic has been a bit quiet during the postseason. Still, he leads all players in our NBA Models in median and ceiling projection. Young and KAT stand out as the best values in the stud tier, but Jokic is always capable of breaking the slate.

Jokic also stands out using our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

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Value

Center doesn’t stand out as a great value position on Tuesday, but Clint Capela has some appeal at $5,000. His playing time can vary from night to night, but he’s still an excellent per-minute producer. He’s averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and $5,000 is basically as low as we’ve ever seen him. He played 29.5 minutes in Game 4, and he provides in solid floor and ceiling if he sees that much playing time again on Tuesday.

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Fast Break

It’s safe to say that things have not gone as hoped for Rudy Gobert and the Timberwolves. That has the potential to be one of the worst trades in NBA history, and it’s only going to look worse if the Jazz hit on any of the draft picks they receive over the next few years. That said, Gobert has quietly posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel. He’s clearly not the same player that he was in Utah, but he’s still capable of providing value.