NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Apr. 18): Jayson Tatum or Kevin Durant?

Tuesday features a three-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

The Cavaliers entered their series with the Knicks as moderate favorites, but they suffered an upset loss in Game 1 on their home court. That makes Tuesday’s Game 2 absolutely vital. They can’t afford to fall into an 0-2 hole before heading to New York for Game 3.

Expect the Cavaliers to treat this as a must-win contest, which should result in some extra playing time for their top dogs. That includes Darius Garland. He’s currently projected for just under 42 minutes in our NBA Models, and he played more than 43 minutes in Game 1. He should be locked into a monster workload, and Garland has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute for the year.

Garland hasn’t been as effective recently, but his price tag has dipped to just $7,300 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 88%, setting up a nice buy-low opportunity. Garland has had a comparable salary in just 10 previous games this season, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +11.75 in those contests (per the Trends tool). He also leads the position with 12 Pro Trends, so he stands out as an outstanding option.

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Value

Derrick White owns a Bargain Rating of 97% on DraftKings, and he’s coming off a huge performance in Game 1 vs. the Hawks. He racked up 45.75 DraftKings points across 38.5 minutes, and that kind of playing time bodes well for his prospects moving forward. White has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that figure to 1.06 over the past month.

The Celtics also boast the best matchup among Tuesday’s squads. The Hawks were an elite fantasy opponent over the second half of the year, and the Celtics’ implied team total of 120.75 ranks first on the slate. The Suns are the only other team within even 10 points of the Celtics, so they’re the clear top target from a team standpoint.

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Fast Break

Chris Paul can still get the job done at 37 years old. He averaged 36.33 DraftKings points per game during the regular season, but he did it in just 32.0 minutes. He played 38.7 minutes in his first playoff contest, so he has the potential for much more production during the postseason. Paul responded with 41.25 DraftKings points in Game 1 despite making just two shots. He’s arguably the top option at the position on DraftKings, where his $7,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 79%.

I haven’t seen the movie Cocaine Bear, but I imagine it’s like watching Russell Westbrook play basketball. He was all over the place in Game 1 of this series, and he finished with 43.0 DraftKings points despite shooting just 3-19 from the field. Some shooting improvement should be expected in Game 2, and Westbrook can pile up the peripherals with the best of them.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

For what feels like the first time all season, Jaylen Brown actually checks in with a better Bargain Rating on DraftKings than on FanDuel. However, it’s not because FanDuel has started pricing him properly, but rather DraftKings making him a value for no discernable reason. He finished with 50.0 DraftKings points in Game 1 vs. the Hawks, yet they dropped his salary by a full -$1,000 for Game 2.

Brown has been productive recently, averaging 1.24 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so there’s no reason to expect much to change in Game 2. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the top mark at the position, and he benefits from the same elite matchup as the rest of his teammates.

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Value

The Clippers are looking for scoring help with Paul George sidelined, and Eric Gordon stepped up to the plate in Game 1 vs. the Suns. He finished with 19 points in 32.5 minutes, and he’s projected for a comparable workload in Game 2. Gordon doesn’t provide much in the peripheral categories, but he’s still averaged a respectable 0.71 FanDuel points per minute for the year. It’s tough to find players at $4,600 who are expected to see more than 30 minutes of court time during the postseason, but Gordon fits that description on Tuesday.

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Fast Break

Malcolm Brogdon is another potential value option for the Celtics. He’s not expected to see nearly as much playing time as White, but he makes up for it with his per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.03 FanDuel points per minute for the year, and he’s increased that number to 1.09 over the past month. Brogdon also checks in as a nice value on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 77%.

Donovan Mitchell is the only reason the Cavaliers didn’t get blown out by the Knicks in Game 1. He was phenomenal, racking up 66.25 DraftKings points in 43.6 minutes, and Mitchell has been absolutely sizzling of late. He’s scored at least 54.0 DraftKings points in five straight games, and he’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +8.07 in all five contests. He remains affordable at $9,200 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 92%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It was a bit of an odd game for Kevin Durant in Game 1. He wasn’t as aggressive as usual, finishing with just 15 shot attempts and a 20.6% usage rate. He actually finished with just the sixth-highest usage rate on the team, which is shocking for a player of his caliber. That said, he made up for it with his typical elite efficiency, scoring 27 points with nine rebounds and 11 assists.

Expect Durant to be much more aggressive in Game 2. He averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute for the year, and he played more than 44.5 minutes in his first playoff contest. If he’s going to continue to see that much playing time, he should put up some monster numbers during the postseason. Durant ranks second on the slate in median projection, and his $9,300 salary on DraftKings is simply way too cheap. It results in a Bargain Rating of 97%, so Durant is a great bet to return value.

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Value

Saddiq Bey wasn’t particularly effective in Game 1 vs. the Celtics, finishing with just 19.5 DraftKings points in 23.9 minutes. However, Bey has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and his salary has plummeted for Tuesday’s slate. His price tag is down to just $4,500 on DraftKings, which is -$1,100 cheaper than he was in Game 1. He doesn’t stand out as a slam-dunk value, but he’s definitely usable on this slate.

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Fast Break

Kawhi Leonard is still really, really good at basketball. I feel like we occasionally forget that fact, but he reminded all of us with 54.5 FanDuel points in an upset win over the Suns. He played more than 41.5 minutes in that contest, and Leonard has increased his usage rate by +2.72% with George off the floor this season. He’s averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute in that scenario, and he’s projected for significantly less ownership than the other stud forwards on this slate. That makes him a very interesting tournament option.

Torrey Craig has become an important part of the Suns’ rotation, and he was excellent in Game 1. He racked up 30.3 FanDuel points across 26.9 minutes, and while I wouldn’t expect a repeat in Game 2, he’s still capable of paying off his current price tag. He’s projected for just under 27 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

As good as Durant is, it’s hard to argue against Jayson Tatum being the top stud on the slate. Tatum has blossomed into a full-fledged superstar this season, even garnering some MVP consideration at the beginning of the year. He’s averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, both of which rank first on Tuesday’s slate. He also leads all players in median and ceiling projection, while his 11 Pro Trends are tied for the most at any position on DraftKings.

Tatum is a particularly strong option on DraftKings, where his $9,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. While he, Durant, and Leonard are all outstanding options, the matchup vs. the Hawks pushes Tatum into the top spot in the frontcourt.

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Value

Al Horford was instrumental in the Celtics’ playoff success last season, and he had a solid performance in Game 1 vs. the Hawks. He wasn’t particularly involved offensively, posting just a 6.8% usage rate, but he did a little bit of everything. He tallied six points, nine boards, two assists, one steal, and two blocks, bringing his fantasy total to 26.8 FanDuel points. Horford also racked up 38.1 minutes in that contest, which bodes well for his future success. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he has the potential for a better performance on Tuesday.

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Fast Break

Evan Mobley struggled in Game 1 vs. the Knicks, but he played extremely well down the stretch in his sophomore season. Even with a subpar showing on Saturday, Mobley has still averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.06 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his production to 1.12 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 38 minutes in our NBA Models. Mobley was just 4-13 from the field in Game 1, so he has plenty of room for improvement in Game 2.

John Collins is a solid value selection on DraftKings, where his $4,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%. He’s not playing a ton of minutes for the Hawks at the moment, but he makes up for it with decent per-minute efficiency.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Center is the one position on this slate that lacks a true stud. However, Jarrett Allen stands out as an elite midrange target on DraftKings. Only Tatum checks in with a better projected Plus/Minus, and Allen provided nice value in Game 1 vs. the Knicks. He played just under 43 minutes and responded with 14 points and 14 rebounds, good for 38.5 DraftKings points. Allen has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so there’s no reason he can’t do it again on Tuesday. He’s underpriced across the industry.

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Value

Ivica Zubac has always been an excellent per-minute producer, and that’s been particularly true of late. He’s averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, but his playing time is tough to nail down on a night-to-night basis. However, the matchup vs. the Suns should be a good one for him. They play a traditional center in Deandre Ayton, so Zubac should see a solid number of minutes to try to combat him. He played 29.7 minutes in Game 1 of this series, and he responded with 30.75 DraftKings points. Zubac is projected for a comparable workload in Game 2, and his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

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Fast Break

Clint Capela stands out as the most underpriced option on FanDuel, where he leads all centers with an 81% Bargain Rating. Capela checks a lot of the same boxes as Zubac: he’s an excellent per-minute producer when on the floor, but his minutes can vary from game to game. He played just 26.5 minutes in Game 1 vs. the Celtics, but he could see a few additional minutes on Tuesday.