NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Tuesday, Apr. 11): Target Playoff Jimmy in Plus Matchup

Tuesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player pick’ems.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Who’s ready for meaningful basketball again? After what feels like months of late-season lineup chicanery, we can finally get down to business with the start of the play-in tournament.

The stud options are limited at point guard, but Trae Young stands out as the clear choice. His median and ceiling projections are roughly six points higher than the rest of the point guard options in our NBA Models, and he’s put together three straight big performances. He’s racked up at least 46.6 FanDuel points in each of those outings, including 63.6 FanDuel points in his most recent contest. Overall, Young has averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and no other point guard is above 0.99 on this slate.

Young does draw a brutal matchup vs. the Heat, but he still stands out as a viable target on FanDuel. He leads all point guard with 10 Pro Trends, and his $9,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%.

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Value

Kyle Lowry stands out as an excellent value on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,000, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he gets the best matchup at the position vs. the Hawks. He owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +9.01, which is easily the top mark among Tuesday’s point guards.

Lowry has been coming off the bench for the Heat recently, but that’s actually been a good thing for his fantasy value. He’s increased his production to 0.93 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He’s still expected to see plenty of playing time vs. the Hawks – he’s projected for more than 29 minutes in our NBA Models – so he’s a fantastic source of savings on this slate.

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Fast Break

Mike Conley is the preferred value target at PG on FanDuel. Conley has been excellent since arriving in Minnesota, and he’s averaged 0.96 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.43 over his past 10 games, and his $6,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 98%.

The Lakers lead the slate in implied team total by a pretty wide margin. That makes them arguably the strongest team target on Tuesday. Dennis Schroder is their strongest option in the backcourt, given his combination of production and an affordable salary. He’s best deployed on FanDuel, where his $5,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Timberwolves are obviously in a state of turmoil, with Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels both dealing with self-inflicted absences on Tuesday. Fortunately, they still have Anthony Edwards. Edwards has done his best to will this team to victories of late, and he’s taken on a massive workload. He’s increased his usage rate to 39.9% over his past four games, which represents a massive uptick from his season average of 29.9%. He’s scored at least 49.75 DraftKings points in three of those contests, despite playing less than 25 minutes in one of them.

Edwards will have to navigate a tough Lakers defense on Tuesday, but he should have plenty of opportunities. He’s seen a team-high +2.7% usage bump with Gobert and McDaniels off the floor this season, and his 38.04 projected minutes rank first on the entire slate.

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Value

Like Lowry, Tyler Herro is priced at a massive discount on DraftKings. His $6,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%, and he should be effective against the Hawks’ defense. The Heat’s implied team total of 116.5 ranks second on the slate and represents a sizable increase from their season average of 109.5. Herro is tied for first on the team in usage, so he figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries from the matchup.

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Fast Break

Austin Reaves has blossomed into a really good role player for the Lakers. He’s increased his production to 0.95 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he helped keep the team afloat while LeBron James and Anthony Davis were sidelined with injuries. He’s taken a bit of a backseat with both guys back in the lineup recently, but he’s still managed at least 25.8 FanDuel points in five straight games. That’s enough to keep him in play at $6,000 on FanDuel.

Bogdan Bogdanovic is an interesting GPP option on FanDuel. His Perfect% – aka how often he shows up in optimal lineup simulations – sits at 25.8%, while his projected ownership is closer to 20%. That suggests that he’s slightly undervalued. He’s a boom-or-bust type of player, but he went off for 37.3 FanDuel points just two games ago. He also stands out as underpriced on FanDuel, where his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

It’s not technically the playoffs, but I think this still counts for “Playoff Jimmy.” Jimmy Butler is the type of player who has been known to rise to the occasion, and he had to get started a bit earlier than usual this season. He was trying to will the Heat to the final guaranteed playoff spot in the East, and while he ultimately came up short, he provided some excellent DFS results in the process. He’s scored at least 49.0 DraftKings points in four of his past seven games, and he’s gone for at least 56.0 in three of them. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.32 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, which is the fourth-highest mark Tuesday regardless of position.

Like the rest of his teammates, Butler benefits from this elite matchup vs. the Hawks. He leads the position with a +4.93 Opponent Plus/Minus on DraftKings, where he also owns a position-high 10 Pro Trends. Add it all up, and there’s a good case for Butler being the top overall stud on this slate.

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Value

De’Andre Hunter isn’t the best per-minute producer, but he’s expected to see plenty of minutes for the Hawks. He’s currently projected for 33 minutes in our NBA Models, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.42 (per the Trends tool). He doesn’t bring the highest ceiling to the table, but he’s one of the safer options in his price range.

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Fast Break

LeBron James only has SF eligibility on DraftKings, while he’s eligible at both forward spots on FanDuel. He doesn’t look particularly appealing in our NBA Models, and his production has dipped to just 1.36 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. Still, this is LeBron that we’re talking about. He’s been putting together legendary playoff performances for nearly two decades, so a matchup vs. the Timberwolves shouldn’t intimidate him. He’s currently projected for less than eight percent ownership on FanDuel, but his Perfect% checks in at 14.5%.

Caleb Martin is another cheap option who figures to see plenty of playing time. He’s not projected for quite as many minutes as Hunter, but he’s also projected for significantly less ownership. Both players have similar ceiling projections, so he’s an interesting pivot.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Karl-Anthony Towns is officially questionable, but I would be shocked if he’s not in the lineup vs. the Lakers. He’s played in each of the team’s past six games, and he’s going to have plenty of time off before their next contest, regardless of whether they win or lose. Towns is coming off more than 36 minutes in Sunday’s win over the Pelicans, and they’re going to need his size with Gobert and Naz Reid sidelined.

Towns hasn’t been as productive as usual when on the floor this season, but the team’s current absences should help. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.8% with Gobert and McDaniels off the floor, and he’s also seen a slight bump to his assist rate. Towns also remains very affordable across the industry, and he leads all PFs with 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.

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Value

Kyle Anderson was involved in the Timberwolves’ shenanigans on Sunday, and he’s going to have to help pick up the slack vs. the Lakers. Fortunately, he’s more than capable of doing so. He’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he can rack up counting stats in every category across the board. He’s a nightly threat for a double- or triple-double, and he’s one of the best values of the day at just $6,500 on FanDuel. His price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 99%, and he leads all players regardless of position in projected Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

Taurean Prince is another member of the Timberwolves who will have to take on a larger role on Tuesday. He’s projected for just under 34 minutes in our NBA Models at a very reasonable $4,700 on FanDuel. He’s averaged just 0.70 FanDuel points per minute for the year, but he does see a slight boost with Gobert and McDaniels off the floor.

Most cheap players stand out as better values on FanDuel than DraftKings on Tuesday, but Rui Hachimura is an exception. He’s priced at just $4,100 on DraftKings, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.84 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t figure to see a ton of time vs. the Timberwolves, but he should be productive when he’s on the floor. Overall, he’s played at least 22.8 minutes in four of his past five games, and he’s scored at least 23.25 DraftKings points in three of them.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Towns is the best pay-up option at center, but if you’re using him at power forward, Bam Adebayo is a worthy alternate. The matchup vs. the Hawks should benefit him more than most. Atlanta ranks 29th in points per game allowed in the paint, and they’re also a below-average rebounding squad.

Adebayo has a diverse skill set, but he hasn’t put it on display much recently. He’s scored 29.5 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight games, so this is the perfect opportunity for a bounce-back performance.

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Value

Center is one of the most top-heavy positions on the slate, with none of the cheap options standing out as strong values on either DraftKings or FanDuel. However, both of the Hawks’ centers are worth consideration in the midrange. Clint Capela figures to see most of the playing time, and he’s averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute for the year. Onyeka Okongwu should see closer to 20 minutes, but he’s averaged a superior 1.34 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

It’s hard to separate both players, but Okongwu gets the clear edge in terms of Perfect%. He makes the optimal lineup in the DraftKings simulations more than 32% of the time, while Capela is at 23.4%. Okongwu also stands out in our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table:

Regardless of which you choose, playing both together is not advised. The two players are negatively correlated, so one tends to succeed at the expense of the other.

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Fast Break

Like LeBron, Anthony Davis does not grade out well in our Models, and he’s not projected to carry much ownership. However, he has plenty of upside against an undermanned Timberwolves’ frontcourt. Davis has also averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute for the year, which is the top mark among Tuesday’s players.