Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic has been one of the best players in fantasy this season, which obviously gives him appeal in a must-win contest. He’s scored at least 57.25 DraftKings points in two of his past three games, with the lone exception being the Mavericks’ 30-point loss in their last game. Doncic played a bit less than expected in that contest, and he also was subpar as a shooter. Still, his average usage rate has eclipsed 41% during this series, giving him easily the highest ceiling on the slate. He also leads the PG position in Pro Trends on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Sticking with the Mavericks, Jalen Brunson stands out as one of the better values at the position, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 79%. He was one of the few Mavericks who actually played well in their last game, finishing with 31.4 FanDuel points in just 34.8 minutes. Overall, Brunson has increased his production to 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s projected for 37 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s an excellent combination.
Fast Break
James Harden’s price tag continues to drop, which makes sense given his recent production. He’s scored 39.5 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he looks like a shell of his former self. However, Harden has still averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he did rack up 55.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. That gives him a decent ceiling for his price tag, albeit with a relatively low floor.
Kyle Lowry remains out of the lineup for the Heat, which means Gabe Vincent should draw another start at point guard. He fared well in that role in Game 5, racking up 26.75 DraftKings points in just 27.7 minutes. Vincent averaged 22.3 DraftKings points in games without Lowry during the regular season, giving him some appeal at his current price tag.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Devin Booker has been an excellent value on DraftKings throughout this series, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of the past five games. He remains one of the best pure values on DraftKings, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75%. That’s tied for the top mark at shooting guard, and it’s the second-highest mark for all players priced above $3,600.
Value
Paying up for one of the top options at SG makes a lot of sense on Thursday, but Mikal Bridges is a viable alternative on FanDuel. He continues to play all the minutes he can handle, and he’s projected for another 40 minutes on Thursday’s slate. Bridges has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.14 over his past 10 games, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.62 (per the Trends tool).
Fast Break
Max Strus is another potential value option for the Heat. He’s been starting during the postseason, and he put together a big game in his last outing. He racked up 19 points and 10 boards, good for 31.5 FanDuel points. Overall, Strus has posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.32 over his past 10 games, yet his price tag has increased by just $800 over that time frame.
Reggie Bullock has been awful over his past two games due to dreadful shooting performances. He’s made just two of 11 shots in those contests, making him a candidate for some positive regression on Thursday. Bullock is an excellent 3-point shooter – he’s converted 38.5% of his 3-point attempts for his career – and he’s been better at home than on the road this season. He has some buy-low appeal.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
If Booker is an excellent value on DraftKings, Jimmy Butler is a downright steal. His $9,800 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 83%, and he’s provided immense value throughout the postseason. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games, and he’s scored at least 50.75 DraftKings points in three of his past four. The only exception was his last game, where Butler played just 34.6 minutes in a blowout win.
Additionally, Butler isn’t expected to carry massive ownership on this slate, further increasing his appeal. He’s one of the best tournament options of the day.
Value
Dorian Finney-Smith is very similar to Bridges. Both players are pedestrian per-minute producers, but both players are seeing tons of playing time. DFS was fantastic for the Mavericks in Game 4, finishing with 41.5 DraftKings points over 38.4 minutes. He came crashing back to reality in Game 5, which has caused his price tag to decrease across the industry. He’s a particularly nice option on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.
Fast Break
Tyler Herro’s playing time was cut way short in his last game, which will happen to bench players in a blowout. He played just over nine minutes in the second half, and he finished with 21.8 minutes for t the evening. That’s caused his price tag to dip to just $5,700 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%. Herro should play closer to 30 minutes if Thursday’s game is more competitive, and he’s averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute this season.
Jae Crowder managed just 12.0 FanDuel points in his last game, snapping a streak of nine straight games with a positive Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Like Herro, he also played fewer minutes than usual in his last game, and he also got a slight price decrease for Game 6. He’s a nice buy-low option.
Power Forward
Stud
The 76ers will need a big performance from Tobias Harris if they’re going to stave off elimination. Harden has struggled mightily, while Joel Embiid is dealing with multiple injuries. Harris has looked less aggressive offensively since Embiid returned to the lineup in Game 3, but he has some room for improvement. He’s made just 15-37 shots over his past three games, and he’s just 4-13 from 3-point range over that stretch.
Value
Maxi Kleber stands out as one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, where his $4,500 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 92%. Like most of the Mavericks, he struggled in his last game, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his five previous games. His playing time was also up in Games 3 and 4, with Kleber tallying at least 32.9 minutes in both contests. He’s expected to return to around 30 minutes on Thursday, making him a strong option.
Fast Break
Cam Johnson has recently taken a back seat to Crowder, but he’s still seeing a solid handful of minutes each game. He’s been a reliable per-minute producer during the year, averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s capable of getting hot from behind the 3-point line. That gives him a path to returning value at his current salary.
As usual, Bam Adebayo is a potential option at power forward on FanDuel given his dual eligibility. His salary is also very reasonable at the moment at just $7,800. Adebayo has averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.20 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Center
Stud
How you choose to approach Joel Embiid is arguably the biggest factor on this slate. At his best, Embiid is one of the most dominant players in the league, and he averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute this season. However, Embiid is far from at his best at the moment. His usage rate has been way down since returning to the lineup three games ago, and he’s scored 42.75 DraftKings points or less in all three contests.
With that in mind, there is undoubtedly plenty of risk with targeting the stud big man on Thursday. However, his price tag has come way down recently, and he could be a bit more aggressive in a must-win contest. It remains to be seen if his body can handle that, but he’s an interesting tournament pivot.
Value
It’s a tough slate to pay down at center. Kleber is your best bet if you want to go that route on FanDuel, but he’s a bit pricy at $5,200 on DraftKings.
If you are looking for a pure punt, Dewayne Dedmon could be worth some consideration at the absolute minimum. He’s expected to see around 12-14 minutes for the Heat, and he’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. That’s not all that appealing, but it could be enough if the rest of the position busts or if all the expensive options at other positions go off.
Fast Break
Deandre Ayton rounds out the center position, and he’s an excellent option in the midrange. His price has decreased drastically since the start of the postseason, and he’s averaged a respectable 1.11 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. That’s only 0.01 fewer fantasy points per minute than Embiid over that time frame, and he’s been more productive than Adebayo.
