Wednesday features a two-game slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The Suns will be looking to close out the Pelicans, but they are expected to be without Devin Booker once again. Booker has made significant progress with his strained hamstring, but he’s still likely a few days away from returning to action.
That leaves Chris Paul as the team’s top offensive option. He’s thrived in this series, posting a positive Plus/Minus in four of five games, and he’s scored at least 53.0 DraftKings points in three of them. Paul has also seen a nice spike in production with Booker off the court this season, increasing his usage rate by +3.0% and his assist rate by +3.1%. The Suns lead the slate with an implied team total of 108.5 points, so this is a great spot to go back to the veteran point guard.
Value
Mike Conley’s minutes have decreased late, making him a bit risky vs. the Mavericks. However, his price tag has also become a bit more reasonable. He’s priced at $5,700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and Conley has averaged 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season. That means he can pay off his current salary in around 30 minutes. Conley is also a candidate for some positive shooting regression after making just three of 14 shots over his past two games.
Fast Break
Jose Alvarado seems like your best bet if you’re looking for a true punt play at point guard. He’s been deployed as a professional pest in this series whose sole purpose is trying to make life miserable for Paul. He’s currently projected for 20 minutes in our NBA Models, and he’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Luka Doncic missed the first three games of the postseason with an injury, but he’s looked as good as ever since returning to the lineup. He racked up 54.1 FanDuel points on a 45.4% usage rate in his last contest, and he likely would’ve played more if the game stayed competitive. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position on FanDuel, and no other point guard can match his upside.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The 76ers have struggled to put away the Raptors. They jumped out to a 3-0 series lead, but they’ve lost the past two games. Tonight’s contest is back in Toronto, so there is a legit chance that this series gets pushed to a decisive Game 7.
If the 76ers are going to close this series out on the road, they’ll need a better showing from James Harden. He’s posted a negative Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, which has caused his salary to dip to just $8,900 on FanDuel. He has some buy-low appeal at that number. Harden has been priced below $9,000 on FanDuel on just one previous occasion, and that was Game 4 of this series. He responded with 49.5 FanDuel points, good for a Plus/Minus of +10.93 (per the Trends tool).
Value
Another factor working for the 76ers is that Fred VanVleet is currently doubtful. While that’s not great for the Raptors’ chances of winning this contest, it does open up some fantasy value with the rest of the roster.
Gary Trent Jr. has been one of the biggest beneficiaries with VanVleet off the court this season. He’s increased his usage rate by a team-high +3.7%, resulting in an average of 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He’s expected to play at least 40 minutes in an elimination game, making him a nice option at $6,500.
Fast Break
Donovan Mitchell is dealing with a quad injury, but he told reporters he’d be in the lineup on Thursday. He was disappointing in Game 5, but he had scored at least 44.4 FanDuel points in each of the four previous games. He’s an excellent option at $8,400 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 87%.
Tyrese Maxey has been priced down to $5,500 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%. He continues to play north of 40 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 0.85 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s a solid buy-low option.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Scottie Barnes isn’t exactly priced like a stud, but he deserves to be treated like one on Thursday. He suffered an injury earlier in this series, but he appears to be a full go after logging 40.7 minutes in Game 5. He’s projected for another 40 minutes in our NBA Models, and Barnes has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season. Overall, Barnes is one of the top plays of the day regardless of position.
Value
Mikal Bridges is coming off a massive performance in his last game. He finished with a career-high 31 points, resulting in 51.75 DraftKings points. However, that performance was a clear outlier. His usage rate wasn’t markedly higher than usual (19.0%), but he drilled 12-17 shots from the field and was a perfect 4-4 from 3-point range. That makes him a significant regression candidate in Game 6, and he should carry increased ownership as well.
Instead, consider pivoting to Cameron Johnson. He’s been a better per-minute producer than Bridges this season, and he owns a cheaper price tag across the industry. He’s also projected for a robust 34 minutes with Booker out of the lineup.
Fast Break
Bojan Bogdanovic has struggled recently. He was 4-10 two games ago and missed all nine shot attempts in his last contest. That’s caused his price tag to decrease for Game 6, and he has legit buy-low appeal across the industry. Before his recent struggles, Bogdanovic had posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games.
OG Anunoby owns a Bargain Rating of 91% on FanDuel, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +5.26 over his past 10 games. He won’t blow you away with his upside, but he’s a great bet to return value with VanVleet out of the lineup.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Pascal Siakam has scored at least 47.5 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and there’s no reason to shy away from him now. He’s racked up at least 43.6 minutes in each of those contests, and he should be looking at another massive workload in an elimination game. Siakam has also increased his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s seen a +1.7% usage bump in games without VanVleet this season.
Value
Jae Crowder is another potential option for the Suns. He hasn’t seen quite as much playing time as Johnson, but he’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season, and Crowder has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.02 with a comparable salary and minute projection.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is coming off his worst game of the postseason in his last outing, finishing with just 31.25 DraftKings points over 44.2 minutes. That wasn’t a massive disappointment – he posted a Plus/Minus of -2.20 on DraftKings – but he has plenty of room for improvement on Thursday. Harris has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he can do plenty of damage with 40+ minutes of playing time.
Herb Jones is a stronger option today on FanDuel, where his $4,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. Jones is also already one of the best defenders in the league, so his game is also a better fit on FanDuel given the scoring settings. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s also displayed a ceiling of around 35 FanDuel points.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
How to approach Joel Embiid is the biggest question on today’s slate. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy all season, but he’s been hampered by a thumb injury of late. He hasn’t looked like the same player over the past two games, posting a far lower usage rate than usual with far fewer fantasy points. The Raptors are also one of the toughest matchups in the league for opposing centers, so there are plenty of red flags with Embiid in this spot.
Still, Embiid’s price tag has dipped given all the uncertainty, and he will likely carry a bit lower ownership than usual. Getting a player like Embiid at lower ownership is tantalizing, and it’s something you should strongly consider for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). He leads the slate in ceiling projection, and Luka is the only player who can realistically match his upside.
Value
Center isn’t a great position to save at on Thursday, with most of the best values coming from the top tier.
If you are intent on paying down, Dwight Powell could be worth a shake. He’s dirt cheap and has played at least 20.4 minutes in back-to-back games. He’s not great on a per-minute basis, but he has increased his output to 0.87 FanDuel points per minute over the past month.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has struggled once again this postseason, but he’s simply too cheap to ignore at $7,300 on FanDuel. His 87% Bargain Rating is tied for the top mark at the position, and he’s averaged 1.27 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s returned value at that price tag in back-to-back games, even though he was limited to less than 27 minutes in his last outing.
