Thursday features a three-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
This is the first time the Warriors have been down 0-2 in Stephen Curry‘s career. Returning home, the Warriors are 5.5-point favorites implied for a slate-high 122.5 points. Curry has averaged 29 points per game in the first two games and has shot over 50% from the field in San Francisco this season. We have seen the Warriors’ backs against the wall before, so expect a bounce-back performance from Curry tonight.
The Warriors will have to play Game 3 without Draymond Green, who was suspended for his actions in Game 2. This will benefit Curry the most, who has a team-high +3.39% usage rate differential with Green off the floor this season. The offensive fireworks in this series should continue, with the Warriors and Kings ranking first and second in points per game. In a must-win Game 3, Curry is one of the best pay-up options on the slate.
Value
Priced in the midrange, Spencer Dinwiddie has the highest projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel among all players for this three-game slate. Dinwiddie has had a relatively slow start to the series, averaging only 13 points and 6.5 assists per game. However, from March 1 on, Dinwiddie averaged a double-double with 16.5 points and 10.2 assists per game during the regular season. He has that type of upside.
Playing against the 76ers has proven to be a difficult matchup for this Nets team. The 76ers were eighth in Defensive Rating and played at the fourth-slowest Pace in the league. Through the first two games of this series, they are playing even slower (90.8), which is why this game has a total of only 109.5 points. Expect the Nets to bounce back at home after only scoring 84 points last game. The value on Dinwiddie is too good to pass up.
Our PrizePicks and Underdog Fantasy simulations table likes Dinwiddie’s chances of piling up the peripherals on Wednesday:
Fast Break
De’Aaron Fox took home the first-ever Clutch Player of the Year award, and he has already proved worthy with back-to-back games of over 53 DraftKings points during the postseason. Fox scored several clutch buckets to close out the Warriors in the first two games, paired with a 31.4% usage rate. Prioritize Fox on DraftKings, where his $9,100 salary comes with an 89% Bargain Rating.
After making seven 3-pointers with a 23-point and 13-assist double-double in game one, James Harden struggled last game with only eight points shooting 3 of 13 from the field. Harden still has a high ceiling, as his salary on DraftKings continues to drop, while he has dual eligibility on FanDuel. He led the league with 10.7 assists per game, which has propelled Harden to the most double-doubles this season among all guards.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Suns knotted the series with the Clippers at one game apiece Tuesday night behind another big game from Devin Booker. The sharpshooter scored 38 points while shooting 14 of 22 from the field and 4 of 7 from behind the arc. Through the first two games, Booker has shot 58.5% from the field while playing 44 minutes per game. With the Suns’ lack of depth, Booker is going to play heavy minutes all series and have a very high usage rate.
With Kawhi Leonard on Kevin Durant, Booker will get the luxury of going against a Clippers defense that has taken a significant step back without Paul George. In 26 games without George this season, the Clippers’ Defensive Rating drops from 114.2 to 117.9. This is a sneaky good matchup for Booker, who also added nine assists in Game 2. Booker has also shown defensive upside with five steals and three blocks in two games.
Value
Warriors guard Gary Payton II has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four consecutive games as his minutes have ramped up in the playoffs. Payton is questionable with an illness, so make sure to monitor his status the closer we get to lock, but it would be shocking if he missed this critical Game 3. He was acquired again by the Warriors specifically for this playoff run. He played 27 minutes last game and scored 13 points while grabbing six rebounds.
Payton is tied with Jordan Poole for the fourth-most points per game through the first two playoff games at 10.5, and that isn’t even what he does best. He is most known for his elite defense and has back-to-back games with two steals. Priced under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Payton is a valuable option in a must-win game for the Warriors. Make sure he is healthy enough to play, but Payton’s dual eligibility on DraftKings is also a bonus.
Fast Break
Since being acquired by the Nets, Mikal Bridges is averaging a career-high 26.1 points per game with a 30.2% usage rate. He exploded in Game 1 with 30 points and followed that up with 21 points, seven assists, and five rebounds last game. Bridges scored exactly 39.25 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and that kind of production makes him underpriced at $7,600.
Klay Thompson is another Warriors guard who must step up in Green’s absence. His personal Net Rating is -33.3 through two games, but he can still get hotter than anyone from the perimeter. Thompson has made five 3-pointers in nine consecutive games, averaging 22.2 points per game over that span. In a game environment with the highest total on the slate, getting exposure to Thompson feels necessary.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Kawhi Leonard is healthy and looks like one of the best players in the league again. Leonard has averaged 34.5 points per game while shooting 54.5% from the field and 60% from behind the arc during the postseason. Playing without PG13, the upside for Leonard is through the roof, especially in a playoff series where he will play 40+ minutes.
The Suns were a top-10 defense all season, with and without Kevin Durant. However, Durant’s length hasn’t seemed to bother Leonard through the first two games. Leonard has been scoring at will but has also contributed in the peripherals and on the defensive end. Despite having a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, Leonard is only projected for around 15% ownership, making him a fantastic contrarian pay-up option.
Value
Andrew Wiggins is another great Warriors’ value who is also questionable to play with a shoulder injury. After missing two months of action, Wiggins hasn’t missed a beat, averaging 19.5 points per game. He came off the bench in Game 1 but started Game 2 and played 39 minutes. Priced in the midrange, Wiggins has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel with Green out of the picture.
Behind Curry and Thompson, Wiggins has been the third leading scorer on the Warriors over the first two games. He is another much-needed shot-creator without Green, who leads the Warriors in assists. In the one game that Wiggins played without Green this season, he captured 10 rebounds. Owning the glass will be another critical factor in this Game 3, especially against Domantas Sabonis, who leads the league in rebounding.
Fast Break
Cameron Johnson scored a playoff career-high 28 points last game as he shot 11 of 19 from the field and 5 of 11 from behind the arc. He also had a thunderous dunk over Joel Embiid right behind halftime. Johnson finished with 42.5 DraftKings points, as he essentially broke that slate at his salary. Like Bridges, Johnson is averaging a career-high 16.6 points per game since coming to the Nets, making him another worthy midrange value play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
After a near triple-double in Game 1, Kevin Durant regressed a bit in Game 2 but still shot above 50% from the field over a ton of minutes. Durant played 45 and 44 minutes in the first two games, which is a lot of mileage on his legs. We have Durant projected for over 42 minutes tonight, and to no surprise, he is popping as one of the best plays on the slate, especially on DraftKings at only $9,600 with an 85% Bargain Rating.
Since coming to the Suns, Durant has led the team to a 9-1 record, as they have one of the best Offensive and Defensive Ratings during that time. Durant stuffs the stat sheet in a variety of ways, making him a tremendous pay-up option on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Value
Royce O’Neale has been one of the better value plays throughout the playoffs. It’s always difficult to find value in the postseason, but O’Neale will play heavy minutes and has enough shot volume to put up a good fantasy score. He attempted nine 3-pointers in Game 2 and proved during the regular season he can get hot from the perimeter. O’Neale came over from the Jazz at the trade deadline and is averaging a career-high in points and assists per game.
Projected for over 40% ownership on DraftKings and FanDuel, O’Neale is going to be a fantastic cash-game option as he has small forward and power forward eligibility on both sites. He has gotten off to a slow start in the first two games shooting the ball, but O’Neale only needs to drop a couple of 3-pointers to pay off his salary. O’Neale is an excellent lineup filler priced near the bottom of the spectrum.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris has been awesome during his first two postseason games, scoring 20+ points in each game while pulling down 12 rebounds in Game 2. He is shooting over 60% from the field and 4 of 6 from behind the arc. Those numbers are unsustainable, but at $5,900 on DraftKings, Harris has some room for regression. He has a 95% Bargain Rating and has shown double-double upside.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid has the highest projected ceiling on DraftKings and FanDuel in our NBA Models, and it isn’t particularly close. After a mediocre first game, Embiid dominated in Game 2 with 20 points, 19 rebounds, and seven assists. Despite being constantly doubled, Embiid is still worthy as the highest-priced player on the slate. He is the only player priced over $10,000 on DraftKings and over $11,000 on FanDuel, greatly increasing his projected ownership.
This is one of the best matchups in the league for Embiid playing against Nic Claxton and the weak Nets frontcourt. They rank 29th in Rebounding Percentage this season, and behind Claxton, they have no interior depth. Claxton has done a great job of staying out of foul trouble, but Embiid is a major mismatch in the paint. Even facing consistent double teams, Embiid is the best play on the slate and should be prioritized in all game formats.
Value
Kevon Looney will have to come up with a big game against Sabonis to keep the Warriors in this playoff series. The veteran center has only averaged seven points and eight rebounds per game through the first two games but had to deal with foul trouble in each contest. Looney is projected to play 29 minutes but is still rating out as one of the best values on the slate, especially at the center position.
In nine games without Green this season, Looney is averaging 7.2 points and 10.8 rebounds per game while shooting 69.2% from the field. Overall, Looney is averaging a career-high in points and rebounds and has been a critical part of the Warriors’ success, especially after trading away James Wiseman. Looney may need to play more minutes without Green in the lineup, which will only benefit his fantasy production.
Fast Break
Sabonis practiced yesterday and looks ready to play Thursday despite taking a stomp from Draymond in Game 2. Once Green was ejected, Sabonis took advantage and dominated the paint. Leading the league in rebounding this season, Sabonis has been particularly dominant against the Warriors, averaging 15 rebounds per game. He also leads the slate with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel and 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings.
Deandre Ayton has struggled throughout the season playing alongside Durant and Booker, but he came through last game with a 14-point, 13-rebound double-double. Ayton has had his fair share of success against Ivica Zubac throughout his career, and being priced in the midrange makes him a viable value option. His upside is a bit capped playing alongside two elite scorers, but Ayton has shown double-double potential and deserves consideration at a weak center position.
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