Sunday features a small two-game slate starting at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Vivid Picks has to offer with promo code LABS for a $200 deposit match.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
After a 45-point outburst in Game 1, James Harden has looked like Ben Simmons in his last two games, being reluctant to hunt for his shot. Harden has shot 5 of 28 from the field and 2 of 13 from behind the arc, averaging 14 points per game over that time. During the regular season, Harden led the league with 10.7 assists per game and had the most double-doubles (36) for all guards. His ceiling is still very high despite the back-to-back lackluster games.
The 76ers have the lowest implied total on the slate with 106 points, as they are slight home underdogs looking to tie up this series at two games apiece. In order for the 76ers to win, Harden needs to shoot better than 36% from the field, which is the lowest mark in his playoff career. Expect a bounceback performance from Harden and prioritize him on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating and is tied for a slate-high 11 Pro Trends.
Value
With Chris Paul nursing a groin injury, Cameron Payne will once again move into the Suns starting lineup. In 15 games without Paul this season, Payne is averaging 14.9 points and 7.1 assists per game. He has nearly doubled his field-goal attempts and minutes played, while averaging over 30 DraftKings points per game. Payne drew the start in Game 3 and had a mediocre game with only seven points and six assists in 30 minutes.
Expected to play around 30 minutes again tonight, Payne is one of the better value plays on the slate. He leads all point guards on FanDuel with the highest projected Plus/Minus and has a 91% Bargain Rating priced under $5,000. Payne also has point guard and shooting guard eligibility on FanDuel, making it easy to fit him into all lineup builds. Even though he’s not always hunting his shot, Payne can pay off his cheap price, as he gives this team a much higher tempo.
Fast Break
Outside of a poor Game 2 in this series, Jamal Murray has been outstanding during the Nuggets’ playoff run. He is scoring 26.5 points while playing a team-high 38.6 minutes per game. With a near-30% usage rate, Murray is looking like he’s back in the Bubble. Murray has scored over 30 points and over 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Opposite of Harden, prioritize Murray on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating.
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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
It will be tough to find a player who has performed better during this playoffs than Devin Booker. He is averaging a league-high 36.9 points per game while shooting a ridiculous 60.2% from the field and 48.9% from behind the arc. Booker has also added five rebounds and 6.9 assists per game, which are both well above his season averages. He displayed his massive ceiling in a must-win Game 3, as he shot 20 of 25 from the field and finished with 77 DraftKings points.
Anthony Edwards torched the Nuggets defense in the first round, and Booker is doing the same thing in this series. Booker has found a way to exploit this matchup, as the Nuggets have had difficulty stopping elite guards. He has the highest projected ceiling among all guards on DraftKings and FanDuel. Despite a rising salary, Booker looks like a strong pay-up option, as the Suns face another game they can’t lose at home tonight.
Value
The Celtics can really put pressure on the 76ers if they win Game 4. They may have to do so without Marcus Smart, who is questionable with a sprained ankle. Make sure to monitor his status, but Derrick White is a great play regardless and would look even better if Smart were to sit. In 21 games without Smart this season, White is averaging 15.4 points on double-digit field goal attempts, while increasing his peripherals and minutes played per game.
Priced very similar to Payne on DraftKings and FanDuel, White is projected to be just as popular, as he has averaged 14 points per game and shot 45% from behind the arc in back-to-back games. White displayed his ceiling in the first round with two games over 45 DraftKings points. In his first full season with the Celtics, White has increased all of his averages and carried that over into the postseason. He is another guard who is difficult to ignore on this two-game slate.
Fast Break
Jaylen Brown has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers during this postseason, making him a great cash-game play. Over the last six games, Brown is averaging 28.2 points per game while shooting 56.5% from the field and 57.6% from behind the arc. His peripherals have been a little down compared to his season averages, but Brown still has a ceiling and would also benefit if Smart were to sit with his ankle injury.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Among the pay-up options, Kevin Durant has the highest projected Plus/Minus and the most projected ownership. On FanDuel, Durant is projected for over 55% ownership, as he is barely priced over $10,000. He scored a playoff-high 39 points in Game 3, as he nearly had a triple-double with nine rebounds and eight assists. In this series, Durant has a 34.1% usage rate, and he has attempted 27 and 31 field goals in each of his last two games.
Even though this is a smaller sample size, with Paul off the floor this season, Durant has a team-high +9.8% usage rate and a +15.2 DraftKings Plus/Minus. The entire Suns offense will run through Durant and Booker, and as they showed in Game 3, they can be played together and still have ceiling games. There are several really good pay-up options on this small slate, but Durant may provide the best bang for your buck on both sites.
Value
Michael Porter Jr. exploded in Game 3 with 21 points and 12 rebounds, finishing with over 40 DraftKings points. He shot 7 of 14 from the field and 6 of 10 from behind the arc, which is what he is best known for. Porter Jr. has been a boom-or-bust fantasy performer during the playoffs, making him a better tournament option. Prioritize Porter Jr. on DraftKings, where he has the highest projected Plus/Minus among all small forwards and an 89% Bargain Rating.
Porter Jr. is third in the Nuggets’ pecking order and ranks second on the team in rebounds per game during the playoffs. The Nuggets are a dangerous team when they’re fully healthy, and they have a chance to put the Suns behind the eight-ball with a win tonight. Despite being slight road underdogs, the Nuggets have an implied team total of 112.5 points. Priced in the mid-range, Porter Jr. can easily pay off this salary with another ceiling performance.
Fast Break
Only six field goal attempts for Tobias Harris in Game 3 is not a recipe for success. It didn’t help that Harris was in foul trouble and played 25 minutes, but expect a bounceback from him in Game 4. He is a similar play to Porter Jr. in terms of value and price, but he has more Pro Trends and can provide a little more consistency. With one 76ers star hobbled and the other afraid to score, Harris may need to have a big game for the 76ers to tie up this series.
T.J. Warren may be becoming a thing again, as the Suns desperately need scoring off the bench. Warren provided that in Game 3 with seven points, but most importantly he was a +20 in 25 minutes. He barely played during the first round, and this was the first action that he saw in this series, but if the Suns give Warren 25 minutes off the bench again Sunday, he is going to break the slate at $3,200 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. This all comes down to his projected playing time.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum bounced back from his horrendous Game 2 with a 27-point, 10-rebound double-double in the Celtics’ Game 3 victory. Tatum has recorded a double-double in six of his nine playoff games while also leading the team with five assists per game. He is doing a little bit of everything while playing massive minutes during the playoffs. Tatum is second to Durant in ceiling projections for all forwards, but he still deserves consideration for the top spot.
Tatum averaged over 30 points per game for the first time in his career during the regular season, and he nearly averaged double-digit rebounds with 8.8 per game. As the Celtics’ top option, Tatum is a little too cheap on DraftKings at $9,600, which is resulting in a 92% Bargain Rating. Tatum has recorded 54 or more DraftKings points in six of his last eight games and is a really good contrarian pay-up option to Durant on FanDuel at nearly half the projected ownership.
Value
Aaron Gordon has the highest projected ownership on FanDuel at 65%, as he is only $5,600, resulting in a 97% Bargain Rating. Playing alongside Jokic provides so many open looks and opportunities for Gordon, who shot a career-best 56.4% from the field this season. In each of his three seasons with the Nuggets, Gordon has shot over 50% from the field and has increased his scoring and rebounding production in each of his last three years.
Gordon has played 39 minutes in every game of this series, averaging 16 points and 4.7 rebounds per game. He struggled shooting the ball in Game 3 and dealt with first-half foul trouble, and Gordon scored under 10 points for the first time in this year’s playoffs; a big difference from his first two games, where he shot above 60% from the field. If Gordon can stay out of foul trouble, he can easily pay off this price tag, especially on FanDuel where he is simply too cheap.
Fast Break
Al Horford made five 3-pointers in Game 3 while scoring a playoff-high 17 points and pulling down seven rebounds. He has double-double upside and remains a little too cheap across the industry. Horford has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in four of his last five games, and he has also contributed defensively with 13 blocks and six steals over that time. If Horford is making his 3-pointers again tonight, he is going to provide a ton of value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Nikola Jokic has the highest projected ceiling in our NBA Models for DraftKings and FanDuel, which should not be a surprise. His Game 3 was magnificent, as Jokic recorded yet another triple-double with 30 points, 17 rebounds, and 17 assists (the most he has had all season). Jokic finished with 80.75 DraftKings points while shooting 11 of 19 from the field. It was the first game in this series that Jokic actually had over five assists in a game.
Jokic has absolutely dominated the glass in this series, averaging 17.3 rebounds per game. The two-time MVP is going to be tough to avoid on DraftKings priced under $11,000 with a 97% Bargain Rating. His salary on FanDuel has ballooned to over $12,000, which is showing in his ownership, as Jokic is projected for under 20%. That seems low given the ceiling that Jokic has any time he touches the floor. The Joker will continue his dominance in this matchup tonight.
Value
Deandre Ayton is risky given how poorly he has played in this series against Jokic, but with a dipping salary it is impossible to ignore the upside. He has the highest projected ownership for all centers on FanDuel, while his backup Jock Landale has the highest projected ownership on DraftKings. Make sure to monitor the starting lineup, as it wouldn’t be surprising if the Suns went with Landale in Game 4 after he closed out Game 3 and is playing much better.
Losing Paul seems to hurt his offensive opportunities, but Ayton is still averaging a double-double with 14 points and 10 rebounds during the playoffs. He is visibly frustrated with his role on the Suns, but if he comes out ready to play, this mid-range salary is way too low for his ceiling. Keep Ayton to a tournament-only play tonight with the playing time scare, but it wouldn’t be surprising if he ended up in the optimal lineup either.
Fast Break
Joel Embiid is questionable with his lingering knee injury, but he dominated Game 3 with 30 points and 13 rebounds and finished with over 60 DraftKings points. It is hard to envision Embiid not playing tonight, given the stakes of this game and potentially going down 3-1. Embiid priced under $10,000 on DraftKings is pretty wild to see, and the fact that he is only bringing in 21% ownership makes him one of the best tournament plays on the slate.
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