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NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Sunday, Jan. 22): Nurk Alert

Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.

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NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Damian Lillard is the second-most expensive point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has the highest projection in our NBA Model for the position Sunday. Lillard has been incredible over his last five games, averaging 39 points and 59.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 51.9% from the field. During that time, Lillard also has averaged a very high 35.7% usage rate and a double-digit Plus/Minus per game on both sites.

The Trail Blazers are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at 122.5 points, as this game against the Lakers features the highest total at 239 points. The Lakers rank second in pace this season and 20th in defensive rating, making this an exploitable spot yet again for Lillard. In his only game against the Lakers in October, Lillard poured in 41 points while shooting 15 of 25 from the field and making six 3-pointers.

The point guard position is loaded on this small slate, but Lillard is the stud of the group.


Value

On the Lakers side of the ball, Patrick Beverley has struggled scoring fantasy points, but he is still starting and playing well over 20 minutes a game. What makes him different tonight is his salary has plummeted down to $3,400 on DraftKings, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating. Projected to play 26 minutes, that is exceptional value on a slate where we need salary savers to pay up for Lillard, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic, to name a few expensive options.

Similar to the Lakers, the Trail Blazers rank 21st in defensive rating. Most of Beverley’s production comes on the defensive side of the ball, but he has averaged two 3-pointers made in his last three games. He is a player who rises to the occasion in matchups like Sunday’s against Lillard. Prioritize Beverley on DraftKings, as he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position and is priced near the minimum.


Fast Break

Kyrie Irving is another exceptional pay-up option, as he finally had his breakout game without Kevin Durant. Irving had a huge double-double with 48 points and 11 rebounds last game, shooting 18 of 29 from the field and 8 of 15 from behind the arc with a 41.1% usage rate. He scored 83.8 DraftKings points, which is the second-highest of his career. Playing against the Warriors, who lead the league in pace while allowing 117.9 points per game, is another juicy spot to take the versatile Brooklyn Nets point guard.

Stephen Curry should be a full go on the other side of this game and can push Irving, going shot for shot in what is projected to be a high-scoring affair. Curry has made six 3-pointers and has over 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. This is going to be an epic point guard matchup between Curry and Irving on Sunday in Golden State.

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

There are several options on FanDuel, where guards are both point guard and shooting guard eligible, but on DraftKings it is a little different. Even with no true pay-up option, Josh Giddey has the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position, as he has triple-double upside while still being priced in the mid-range. Over his last six games, Giddey has recorded three double-doubles and one triple-double while averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game.

Giddey has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games on both sites and is shooting 55.2% from the field during that time. The Thunder are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Nuggets, but they allow 26 assists per game, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. This matchup has a 238.5-point total, providing several opportunities for Giddey to stuff the stat sheet. His price range may result in lower ownership, but don’t sleep on Giddey’s upside.


Value

The Phoenix Suns are easily the most injured team on this slate and maybe even the entire league right now. With so many injuries, playing time is being distributed to the Suns’ role players, and one of those players who has taken advantage of his new opportunity is Damion Lee. He has put together some massive games, including a career-high 31 points against the Timberwolves a little over a week ago. Lee has averaged over three made 3-pointers in his last four games.

Using our On/Off Tool, Lee has a team-high +4.9% usage rate without Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. That is a laundry list of players, especially guards, who are likely out once again Sunday. Lee is shooting a career-best 48.6% from behind the arc this season, which puts him in a good spot against the Grizzlies, who are allowing 36.5 3-point attempts per game — fifth-highest in the league.

Make sure all of these Suns players continue to sit, which would make Lee a great value on both sites.


Fast Break

Anfernee Simons has taken a backseat with the emergence of Damian Lillard, but he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel. The Lakers is a great matchup for both Simons and Lillard. Even though Lillard had 41 points in their last meeting, Simons still attempted 22 field goals in that game and had 42 DraftKings points. There is plenty of opportunity to go around in this spot against the Lakers, and Simons can get cooking from all over the court.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Similar to the shooting guard position, the stud options for small forward are very limited. However, with so many injuries to the Suns roster, Mikal Bridges has been fantastic recently, scoring over 20 points in four-straight games. Not only is Bridges scoring the ball, but he is averaging 6.5 assists per game while shooting 51.5% from the field during that stretch. Bridges will look to make it five consecutive games scoring over 40 DraftKings and FanDuel points tonight.

Bridges is the last starter standing for the Suns right now with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Cameron Johnson all missing extended time. He continues to get it done on both ends of the floor, as his production and usage rate have skyrocketed. Over the last four games, Bridges has averaged nearly a 25% usage rate per game. If these Suns players continue to sit, Bridges is going to continue to feast.


Value

Another Trail Blazers player who looks awesome on this slate is small forward Josh Hart. Priced at $5,100 on DraftKings, Hart has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with an 88% Bargain Rating. In his first full season with the Trail Blazers, Hart is averaging a career-high 8.3 rebounds per game, as he is known for being one of the best rebounding forwards in the league. His rebounding provides sneaky double-double upside anytime he touches the court.

The Lakers without Anthony Davis in the paint are not a good rebounding team. Their rebounding percentage has dropped to 22nd in the league, as they are allowing 45.7 per game, which ranks as the fifth-most. Hart has struggled scoring the ball this season, but a matchup against the fast-paced Lakers can certainly generate easy buckets. Hart is going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, but it is deserving given his upside in this matchup.


Fast Break

Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Donte DiVincenzo all cut into each other’s production a little bit, but they all have upside in their own right. Thompson gets the nod with the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel amongst the group, as he continues to be a flame-thrower from behind the arc. He is averaging 20-plus points per game for his seventh-straight healthy season and is averaging 29.9 per game over his last eight games.

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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James has seen his salary increase on both sites, but it is very much deserving as James does everything in his power to keep the Lakers’ season from sinking. They are on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff picture and are 5.5-point road underdogs against the Trail Blazers tonight. James is outdueling Father Time and stuffing the stat sheet while averaging a 33.2% usage rate this season, which is the most since his 2009-10 season.

Getting exposure to James when Anthony Davis is still out remains critical for lineup builds. In the 17 games that James has played without Davis, he is averaging 33.6 points and 58.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 52.9% from the field. In his two games against the Trail Blazers, James is averaging 31 points per game and 60% shooting from the field. King James can add to his point total as he continues to chase the all-time scoring record.


Value

Ben Simmons recorded a triple-double three games ago, and his price tag shot way up. Since then, his salary has dropped down considerably on DraftKings for this small slate, making him arguably the best mid-range play Sunday. Simmons has the highest projected Plus/Minus for power-forward-eligible players on both sites. The triple-double upside is still there, especially against a Warriors team that leads the league in pace (103.2), entering tonight’s games.

It has been a tough season for Simmons scoring the ball, even with Kevin Durant not in the lineup. He is averaging only 7.5 points per game, which is a career-low by nearly eight per game. He is leading the Nets in assists while his rebounding numbers remain elite. If Simmons can score against one of the worst defenses in the league, he can easily pay off this mid-range price tag. He looks like a strong option on both sites on this small slate.


Fast Break

With Deandre Ayton potentially out for the Suns again, Jaren Jackson Jr. looks like a very strong mid-range power forward option. In 29 games for the Grizzlies this season, Jackson Jr. is averaging 16.4 points per game and a career-high in rebounds, blocks, and field goal and 3-point percentages. The upside is there any given time Jackson Jr. steps on the court, and the opportunities are endless against the injury-riddled Suns.

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NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate, if he plays. Jokic missed last game due to a tight hamstring and is questionable to play tonight. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard on Jokic’s status the closer we get to lock. He hasn’t played since Wednesday, but that is more than enough time for what seems like a minor injury. Jokic has recorded five triple-doubles in his last six games, which is why his status is so important to this slate.

The matchup against the Thunder is a huge positive working in his favor. They are allowing 51.3 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the eighth-highest in the league. The Thunder are also tied for the third-lowest rebounding percentage, making this a juicy matchup for Jokic to continue his triple-double tear. Make sure he is playing, but Jokic is easily the best pay-up option on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.


Value

Jusuf Nurkic rounds out the Trail Blazers’ value plays with the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest behind Josh Hart on DraftKings. Nurkic has had back-to-back poor performances, but he can bounce back against a Lakers frontcourt that is missing one of the best big men in the league in Anthony Davis. Over the last three games, the Lakers are allowing 64.7 points in the paint per game, which is the second-highest during that time. For the season, they are allowing the sixth-most at 53.2 per game this season.

Nurkic is averaging a double-double for the fourth time in his last five seasons with 14.3 points and 10 rebounds per game. This is a great matchup for Nurkic rebounding the ball as well as scoring in the paint. Priced in the mid-range, Nurkic looks like a strong value on both DraftKings and FanDuel with double-double upside.


Fast Break

Nic Claxton has quickly become the best shot-blocker in the league. He has recorded 3-plus blocks in 11-straight games while averaging 16.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game since Kevin Durant was injured. Claxton is averaging a league-high 2.7 blocks per game, which gives him a major boost on FanDuel. The matchup against the Warriors may not yield many blocks, but Claxton has double-double upside regardless and needs to be considered on both sites.

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Sunday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass.

Start Your PRO Trial Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Damian Lillard is the second-most expensive point guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but he has the highest projection in our NBA Model for the position Sunday. Lillard has been incredible over his last five games, averaging 39 points and 59.3 DraftKings points per game while shooting 51.9% from the field. During that time, Lillard also has averaged a very high 35.7% usage rate and a double-digit Plus/Minus per game on both sites.

The Trail Blazers are tied for the highest implied total on the slate at 122.5 points, as this game against the Lakers features the highest total at 239 points. The Lakers rank second in pace this season and 20th in defensive rating, making this an exploitable spot yet again for Lillard. In his only game against the Lakers in October, Lillard poured in 41 points while shooting 15 of 25 from the field and making six 3-pointers.

The point guard position is loaded on this small slate, but Lillard is the stud of the group.


Value

On the Lakers side of the ball, Patrick Beverley has struggled scoring fantasy points, but he is still starting and playing well over 20 minutes a game. What makes him different tonight is his salary has plummeted down to $3,400 on DraftKings, where he has an 88% Bargain Rating. Projected to play 26 minutes, that is exceptional value on a slate where we need salary savers to pay up for Lillard, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic, to name a few expensive options.

Similar to the Lakers, the Trail Blazers rank 21st in defensive rating. Most of Beverley’s production comes on the defensive side of the ball, but he has averaged two 3-pointers made in his last three games. He is a player who rises to the occasion in matchups like Sunday’s against Lillard. Prioritize Beverley on DraftKings, as he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus at the point guard position and is priced near the minimum.


Fast Break

Kyrie Irving is another exceptional pay-up option, as he finally had his breakout game without Kevin Durant. Irving had a huge double-double with 48 points and 11 rebounds last game, shooting 18 of 29 from the field and 8 of 15 from behind the arc with a 41.1% usage rate. He scored 83.8 DraftKings points, which is the second-highest of his career. Playing against the Warriors, who lead the league in pace while allowing 117.9 points per game, is another juicy spot to take the versatile Brooklyn Nets point guard.

Stephen Curry should be a full go on the other side of this game and can push Irving, going shot for shot in what is projected to be a high-scoring affair. Curry has made six 3-pointers and has over 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. This is going to be an epic point guard matchup between Curry and Irving on Sunday in Golden State.

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NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

There are several options on FanDuel, where guards are both point guard and shooting guard eligible, but on DraftKings it is a little different. Even with no true pay-up option, Josh Giddey has the highest ceiling at the shooting guard position, as he has triple-double upside while still being priced in the mid-range. Over his last six games, Giddey has recorded three double-doubles and one triple-double while averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game.

Giddey has a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last six games on both sites and is shooting 55.2% from the field during that time. The Thunder are 6.5-point road underdogs against the Nuggets, but they allow 26 assists per game, which ranks as the sixth-highest in the league. This matchup has a 238.5-point total, providing several opportunities for Giddey to stuff the stat sheet. His price range may result in lower ownership, but don’t sleep on Giddey’s upside.


Value

The Phoenix Suns are easily the most injured team on this slate and maybe even the entire league right now. With so many injuries, playing time is being distributed to the Suns’ role players, and one of those players who has taken advantage of his new opportunity is Damion Lee. He has put together some massive games, including a career-high 31 points against the Timberwolves a little over a week ago. Lee has averaged over three made 3-pointers in his last four games.

Using our On/Off Tool, Lee has a team-high +4.9% usage rate without Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Landry Shamet and Cameron Payne. That is a laundry list of players, especially guards, who are likely out once again Sunday. Lee is shooting a career-best 48.6% from behind the arc this season, which puts him in a good spot against the Grizzlies, who are allowing 36.5 3-point attempts per game — fifth-highest in the league.

Make sure all of these Suns players continue to sit, which would make Lee a great value on both sites.


Fast Break

Anfernee Simons has taken a backseat with the emergence of Damian Lillard, but he has the second-highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate for FanDuel. The Lakers is a great matchup for both Simons and Lillard. Even though Lillard had 41 points in their last meeting, Simons still attempted 22 field goals in that game and had 42 DraftKings points. There is plenty of opportunity to go around in this spot against the Lakers, and Simons can get cooking from all over the court.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Similar to the shooting guard position, the stud options for small forward are very limited. However, with so many injuries to the Suns roster, Mikal Bridges has been fantastic recently, scoring over 20 points in four-straight games. Not only is Bridges scoring the ball, but he is averaging 6.5 assists per game while shooting 51.5% from the field during that stretch. Bridges will look to make it five consecutive games scoring over 40 DraftKings and FanDuel points tonight.

Bridges is the last starter standing for the Suns right now with Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, and Cameron Johnson all missing extended time. He continues to get it done on both ends of the floor, as his production and usage rate have skyrocketed. Over the last four games, Bridges has averaged nearly a 25% usage rate per game. If these Suns players continue to sit, Bridges is going to continue to feast.


Value

Another Trail Blazers player who looks awesome on this slate is small forward Josh Hart. Priced at $5,100 on DraftKings, Hart has the highest projected Plus/Minus on the slate with an 88% Bargain Rating. In his first full season with the Trail Blazers, Hart is averaging a career-high 8.3 rebounds per game, as he is known for being one of the best rebounding forwards in the league. His rebounding provides sneaky double-double upside anytime he touches the court.

The Lakers without Anthony Davis in the paint are not a good rebounding team. Their rebounding percentage has dropped to 22nd in the league, as they are allowing 45.7 per game, which ranks as the fifth-most. Hart has struggled scoring the ball this season, but a matchup against the fast-paced Lakers can certainly generate easy buckets. Hart is going to be one of the most popular plays on the slate, but it is deserving given his upside in this matchup.


Fast Break

Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Donte DiVincenzo all cut into each other’s production a little bit, but they all have upside in their own right. Thompson gets the nod with the highest ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel amongst the group, as he continues to be a flame-thrower from behind the arc. He is averaging 20-plus points per game for his seventh-straight healthy season and is averaging 29.9 per game over his last eight games.

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NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

LeBron James has seen his salary increase on both sites, but it is very much deserving as James does everything in his power to keep the Lakers’ season from sinking. They are on the outside looking in at the Western Conference playoff picture and are 5.5-point road underdogs against the Trail Blazers tonight. James is outdueling Father Time and stuffing the stat sheet while averaging a 33.2% usage rate this season, which is the most since his 2009-10 season.

Getting exposure to James when Anthony Davis is still out remains critical for lineup builds. In the 17 games that James has played without Davis, he is averaging 33.6 points and 58.1 DraftKings points per game while shooting 52.9% from the field. In his two games against the Trail Blazers, James is averaging 31 points per game and 60% shooting from the field. King James can add to his point total as he continues to chase the all-time scoring record.


Value

Ben Simmons recorded a triple-double three games ago, and his price tag shot way up. Since then, his salary has dropped down considerably on DraftKings for this small slate, making him arguably the best mid-range play Sunday. Simmons has the highest projected Plus/Minus for power-forward-eligible players on both sites. The triple-double upside is still there, especially against a Warriors team that leads the league in pace (103.2), entering tonight’s games.

It has been a tough season for Simmons scoring the ball, even with Kevin Durant not in the lineup. He is averaging only 7.5 points per game, which is a career-low by nearly eight per game. He is leading the Nets in assists while his rebounding numbers remain elite. If Simmons can score against one of the worst defenses in the league, he can easily pay off this mid-range price tag. He looks like a strong option on both sites on this small slate.


Fast Break

With Deandre Ayton potentially out for the Suns again, Jaren Jackson Jr. looks like a very strong mid-range power forward option. In 29 games for the Grizzlies this season, Jackson Jr. is averaging 16.4 points per game and a career-high in rebounds, blocks, and field goal and 3-point percentages. The upside is there any given time Jackson Jr. steps on the court, and the opportunities are endless against the injury-riddled Suns.

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NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic is the most expensive player on the slate, if he plays. Jokic missed last game due to a tight hamstring and is questionable to play tonight. Make sure to monitor our news dashboard on Jokic’s status the closer we get to lock. He hasn’t played since Wednesday, but that is more than enough time for what seems like a minor injury. Jokic has recorded five triple-doubles in his last six games, which is why his status is so important to this slate.

The matchup against the Thunder is a huge positive working in his favor. They are allowing 51.3 points per game in the paint, which is tied for the eighth-highest in the league. The Thunder are also tied for the third-lowest rebounding percentage, making this a juicy matchup for Jokic to continue his triple-double tear. Make sure he is playing, but Jokic is easily the best pay-up option on the slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel.


Value

Jusuf Nurkic rounds out the Trail Blazers’ value plays with the highest projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel and the second-highest behind Josh Hart on DraftKings. Nurkic has had back-to-back poor performances, but he can bounce back against a Lakers frontcourt that is missing one of the best big men in the league in Anthony Davis. Over the last three games, the Lakers are allowing 64.7 points in the paint per game, which is the second-highest during that time. For the season, they are allowing the sixth-most at 53.2 per game this season.

Nurkic is averaging a double-double for the fourth time in his last five seasons with 14.3 points and 10 rebounds per game. This is a great matchup for Nurkic rebounding the ball as well as scoring in the paint. Priced in the mid-range, Nurkic looks like a strong value on both DraftKings and FanDuel with double-double upside.


Fast Break

Nic Claxton has quickly become the best shot-blocker in the league. He has recorded 3-plus blocks in 11-straight games while averaging 16.2 points and 9.8 rebounds per game since Kevin Durant was injured. Claxton is averaging a league-high 2.7 blocks per game, which gives him a major boost on FanDuel. The matchup against the Warriors may not yield many blocks, but Claxton has double-double upside regardless and needs to be considered on both sites.

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About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.