NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Oct. 29): Luka Doncic or Giannis Antetokounmpo?

Saturday features a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Luka Doncic has been absolutely balling to start the year. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games on DraftKings, and he’s racked up at least 65.75 DraftKings points in his past three games. That includes a massive 84.75 DraftKings points in his last outing, finishing with 41 points, 11 rebounds, and 14 assists.

With Jalen Brunson now in New York, Doncic appears poised to take another step forward in his fifth season. He leads the league with a 42.0% usage rate, representing a sizable increase from his mark of 37.4% last year. His 56.4% assist rate is also the top mark in the league, so it’s not surprising that he’s racked up an average of 1.92 DraftKings points per minute.

There’s a bit of blowout risk with Doncic on Saturday, but it’s a fantastic spot if the game stays competitive. The Thunder have played at the second-fastest pace this season, so this game has the potential for plenty of possessions. Doncic has been priced up aggressively on DraftKings, but he leads all point guards with a 94% Bargain Rating on FanDuel.

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Value

Ja Morant is currently doubtful for the Grizzlies, which means Tyus Jones will likely draw the start at point guard. That makes him a solid value on Saturday’s DFS slate. Jones averaged 27.17 DraftKings points per game in 23 games without Morant last year, and he’s always been a solid per-minute producer. He averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute last year, and he’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute so far this season.

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Fast Break

Tyrese Maxey went absolutely nuts with Joel Embiid out of the lineup on Friday, racking up 44 points and 65.5 DraftKings points in 39.8 minutes. It was his second straight game with at least 52.25 DraftKings points, but his price has remained reasonable on DraftKings. He’s just $5,700 for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Bulls, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%.

Dennis Smith Jr. was a bust on Friday, finishing with just 16.0 DraftKings points in 27.4 minutes. That stands out as a clear outlier. DSJ had racked up at least 37.0 DraftKings points in his previous two starts, making him a strong bounce-back candidate vs. the Warriors. Smith should continue to start with Terry Rozier unlikely to suit up, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jrue Holiday has dual PG/SG eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most valuable on Saturday. He’s priced at just $7,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he should continue to carry an expanded workload with Khris Middleton out of the lineup. Holiday was one of the primary beneficiaries with Middleton off the floor last year, increasing his usage rate by +4.8%. He averaged 1.20 FanDuel points per minute in that situation, so he has the potential to improve upon his average of 1.08 FanDuel points per minute to start the year. Jrue has shot just 31.3% from the field and 27.3% from 3-point range this season, both of which are well below his career averages.

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Value

If Morant is out for the Grizzlies, Dillon Brooks is going to be asked to pick up the slack. Brooks already carries a large usage rate for Memphis, and he averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute last year. He increased that figure to 1.05 with Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. off the floor, thanks partly to a team-high 30.1% usage rate in that situation.

Brooks has averaged just 0.43 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, so he’s a massive progression candidate on this slate. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and he should be able to pay off his reduced salary pretty easily.

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Fast Break

I get sad every time I think about Tyrese Haliburton. He’s having a phenomenal season, but you know the Pacers are going to shut him down with an “injury” at some point. I guess we’ll just have to enjoy him while we can. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in five of his first six games on FanDuel, and he’s increased his production to 1.33 FanDuel points per minute. He remains firmly in play Saturday vs. the Nets, who rank tied for 28th in defensive efficiency.

On the other side of that matchup, Kyrie Irving is worth some consideration for the Nets. They lead the slate with a 123.5-point implied team total, and Irving erupted for 71.4 FanDuel points in his last outing. He didn’t even shoot the ball well in that contest – he was just 14-31 from the field – and he has at least 63.1 FanDuel points in two of his last three games.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kevin Durant is also an option for the Nets. He hasn’t been quite as good as Irving this season, posting a negative Plus/Minus in four of his first five games. However, the lone exception was his last outing, so he may be starting to turn the corner. The biggest issue with Durant is not his scoring – he’s averaging 33.2 points per game this season – but rather his lack of production in the peripheral categories. He’s averaged just 4.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game in 2022-23, both of which were well below his marks from last year. Part of that could be due to the small sample size, but it’s also possible that he won’t need to do as much in those categories with Ben Simmons in the rotation.

Still, Durant is down to just $9,900 on DraftKings, and he has some buy-low appeal at that figure. He hasn’t been priced below $10k very often as a member of the Nets, and the Pacers rank dead last in defensive efficiency.

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Value

Buddy Hield has been an excellent source of value recently, scoring at least 35.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s played at least 32.1 minutes in back-to-back games. With that in mind, it doesn’t make much sense that his price has dipped to just $5,500 on DraftKings. He’s expected to see a similar workload vs. the Nets, and his 10 Pro Trends are tied with Durant for the most at the position.

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Fast Break

Desmond Bane is another player who should see a boost in value if Morant is sidelined. He’s already been terrific this season, averaging 1.19 FanDuel points per minute, and he increased his usage rate by +4.3% with Morant and Jackson off the floor last year.

Zach LaVine sat out yesterday’s game for injury management, and his status for Saturday is currently unknown. DeMar DeRozan would become an excellent option on FanDuel if he sits again. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He struggled sans LaVine on Friday, but he scored at least 48.2 FanDuel points in his first two games without his stud teammate.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Giannis Antetokounmpo has taken his already elite game to another level this season. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in all four games on DraftKings, and he’s scored at least 64.0 DraftKings points in each of his past three. He’s increased his production to 1.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, representing an increase from his average of 1.76 in 2021-22.

Giannis is capable of racking up fantasy points in a variety of ways. He can beat you with his scoring – he already has two games with at least 43 points this season – or he can pile up the peripherals. One way or another, Giannis is almost always going to get his as long as he plays his usual allotment of minutes.

Giannis is also -$700 cheaper than Doncic on DraftKings, but he owns a superior median projection. That makes him the clear top choice on that site.

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Value

The Pacers have basically had a revolving door in their frontcourt this season, but Jalen Smith’s role has stayed pretty consistent. That’s great news for DFS players. Smith was fantastic on a per-minute basis last year, averaging 1.14 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s increased that figure to 1.23 this year. Smith has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.83 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool), so he’s an excellent value on Saturday’s slate.

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Fast Break

If you’re looking for a punt play on FanDuel, Jake LaRavia could be worth some consideration. He’s priced at just $3,900, and he played just under 30 minutes in the Grizzlies’ last game. He finished with 28.3 FanDuel points in that contest and has averaged 0.80 FanDuel points per minute this season. He’s not expected to see as much playing time on Saturday, but he’s still projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models.

Is it worth buying low on Ben Simmons? It might be on FanDuel, where his $6,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in back-to-back games, despite scoring just 11 total points in those contests. Simmons’ lack of offense will cap his upside, but it’s not like he’s incapable of scoring the ball. He averaged between 14.3 and 16.9 points per game in his four seasons with the 76ers, so he has room for improvement with the Nets.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

If Joel Embiid sits tonight, the top of the center position will be very unappealing. Only three players are priced above $6,400 on FanDuel, and each has at least one question mark.

John Collins is probably the best option of the bunch, particularly on DraftKings. His $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and he’s increased his production to 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season. He struggled to just 25.0 DraftKings points in his last outing, but he played just 25.2 minutes in a blowout win. He played at least 35.9 minutes in his previous three contests and scored at least 35.0 DraftKings points in each. He’s a solid buy-low option vs. the Bucks.

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Value

Myles Turner has suited up in the past two games for the Pacers, and he racked up 32.4 minutes in his last outing. He responded with 27 points, 10 rebounds, and five blocks, resulting in 54.5 DraftKings points. Turner has always possessed an appealing skill set for fantasy, but he’s been stuck in a timeshare with Domantas Sabonis for most of his career. Now that Sabonis is in Sacramento, Turner could easily post the best numbers of his career. Of course, he’s likely getting shut down at some point, but he’s a strong option for the time being.

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Fast Break

The Warriors don’t need much from Draymond Green these days, but he’s still playing around 30 minutes per game. Like Simmons, Green doesn’t bring much to the table from a scoring perspective, but he does provide solid value in the peripherals. He’s averaged 0.92 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he was at 1.04 last year. That gives him some value at just $5,800.

Kelly Olynyk has cooled down after a hot stretch to start the year, but he remains an appealing option at $5,700 on FanDuel. He’s expected to see around 28 minutes vs. the Grizzlies, and Olynyk has historically been the type of player who can average way over a fantasy point per minute.