NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Nov. 5): Shorthanded Nets Providing Value

Saturday features a seven-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

There are plenty of injury questions heading into Saturday’s slate, and with most of these teams on the second leg of a back-to-back, we don’t have many answers yet. Trae Young is currently questionable with an eye injury, and Dejounte Murray would move into stud territory if he’s ruled out. Murray was one of the best fantasy point guards in basketball last season, averaging 49.28 DraftKings points across 34.8 minutes per game. However, his usage and assist rates have both taken hits while playing alongside Young in Atlanta.

That would undoubtedly change if Young is ruled out. Murray has increased his usage rate to 33.3% and his assist rate to 42.6% with Young off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. That would make him an excellent value on FanDuel, where his $9,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.

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Value

The Nets are one team we know will surely provide value on this slate. Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons both remain out of the lineup, so the rest of the roster will have to pick up the slack.

That includes Edmond Sumner. He racked up 19.5 DraftKings points in 25.1 minutes on Friday, resulting in a Plus/Minus of +5.04. He may lose a couple of minutes Saturday with the return of Seth Curry, but he’s still projected for 22 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s priced near the minimum at $3,200 on DraftKings, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.87 (per the Trends tool). Sumner has also averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he’s better than the typical producer in this price range.

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Fast Break

Kevin Porter Jr. has had an excellent start to the year, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.78 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s averaging just under 35 minutes per game. He’s an excellent value at just $7,500, especially against a Timberwolves’ squad that ranks fourth in pace.

As long as the Hornets remain shorthanded, we can continue to roster Dennis Smith Jr. He’s always been an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is coming off a poor performance in his last outing, but he was limited to just 28.7 minutes in a blowout loss. He’s currently projected for closer to 34 minutes in our NBA Models, so this is a nice bounce-back spot.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards has not had the start that many were hoping for. He hasn’t had a bad year – he’s posted an average FanDuel Plus/Minus of +3.20 through his first nine games – but his numbers are pretty similar to his marks from last season. He’s averaged just 1.01 FanDuel points per minute, which puts him well below the truly elite fantasy producers.

However, he draws one of the best possible matchups Saturday vs. the Rockets. They rank just 25th in defensive efficiency to start the year, and they’ve also historically played at a fast pace. They rank 11th in pace to start the season, but they were second in that department last season. The Timberwolves are currently implied for 120 points in this spot, and Edwards leads the team’s regulars in both scoring and usage. This is a spot where he could erupt, and his $8,000 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%.

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Value

Malcolm Brogdon is not playing the same volume of minutes that he did with the Pacers, but he’s been really effective on a per-minute basis. He’s averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with the Celtics, and he’s still projected for around 24 minutes Saturday vs. the Knicks. That should be more than enough to pay off his $4,600 salary on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Joe Harris has struggled out of the gates, which is not all that surprising after missing most of last season. He’s shooting just 36.7% from 3-point range, and he’s averaged just 0.69 FanDuel points per minute. Harris has shot at least 46.6% from behind the arc in three of his past four years, so he’s a candidate for some positive regression moving forward. He should also see a few more minutes than usual with Irving and Simmons sidelined, making him a prime buy-low option.

Devin Booker is underpriced at $8,900 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%. There’s a chance that Cameron Johnson will be sidelined on Saturday after exiting early on Friday, and Booker has the potential for a slightly higher usage rate in that scenario.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Kevin Durant feels underappreciated at times, but he remains arguably the best basketball player on the planet. He continues to score the ball at an elite rate, and he’s going to be asked to do more rebounding and distributing with Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons sidelined. He racked up nine boards and 11 assists with both players out of the lineup on Friday, to go along with his typical 28 points scored. The result was 56.3 FanDuel points, even though he played abbreviated minutes in a blowout win.

If Saturday’s game vs. the Hornets is more competitive, Durant has the potential to be the highest-scoring player on the slate. The Hornets have been a fantastic matchup this season, giving Durant an Opponent Plus/Minus of 2.38. He’s underpriced across the industry, but he’s particularly appealing at just $10,600 on FanDuel.

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Value

The Hornets’ injury report is going to be an important one to monitor before lock. If Gordon Hayward remains out of the lineup, Jalen McDaniels should earn his second straight start. That would make him one of the best values of the day at $4,800 on DraftKings. He’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he played 35.6 minutes in the game where Hayward got hurt. He was unable to duplicate that on Friday, but his minutes were clearly impacted by the 31-point loss.

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Fast Break

The Rockets are a bit thinner than usual on the wing currently, with both Jabari Smith Jr. and Jae’Sean Tate dealing with injuries. That leaves plenty of minutes for Kenyon Martin Jr., who has averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute this season.

Saturday’s matchup between the Spurs and Nuggets features a slate-high 235.5-point total. The Spurs are sizable underdogs in that matchup, but Keldon Johnson has solid upside if this game stays competitive. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s scored at least 45.75 DraftKings points in three of his eight games.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

The Bucks continue to roll through the early part of the year, moving to 8-0 with a win over the Timberwolves on Friday. Giannis Antetokounmpo has unsurprisingly been a huge part of their success, and he racked up 63.5 DraftKings points with a triple-double on Friday. Giannis has averaged 1.88 DraftKings points per minute to start the year, and he’s cruising toward another potential MVP award at the end of the season.

However, Giannis is up to $12,600 on DraftKings and $12,000 on FanDuel, and it’s tough to justify him at those price tags. Durant is significantly cheaper, and his projections are fairly similar in our NBA Models. That should result in lower ownership than usual for Giannis, which is always appealing for GPPs. No one in basketball can match his ceiling.

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Value

Sticking with the Bucks, Bobby Portis has been an excellent source of value recently. He’s scored at least 28.0 DraftKings points in six of his past seven games, and the team has shown a willingness to play Portis alongside Brook Lopez. That’s a departure from years past, and it makes both players more appealing for fantasy purposes. Portis could approach 30 minutes vs. the Thunder, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season.

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Fast Break

Minutes are not a problem for Royce O’Neale. He’s projected for more than 36 minutes on Saturday’s slate, and he’s averaged a respectable 0.75 FanDuel points per minute this season. That number has the potential to increase with Irving and Simmons sidelined, and he handed out a career-best nine dimes with both players sidelined on Friday. He ultimately finished with 31.6 FanDuel points in 28.8 minutes, so he provides a nice combination of safety and upside.

De’Andre Hunter erupted for 32.1 FanDuel points in his last game, and he played a season-high 35.1 minutes. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance, but he was significantly more aggressive in looking for his shot with Young limited. He racked up 21 total field goal attempts, with 12 coming after halftime. That would make him a sneaky beneficiary if Young is ruled out.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Nikola Jokic faces a lot of the same issues as Giannis on Saturday. Most notably, it’s tough to justify paying nearly $12,000 for him when there are so many strong options available. Unlike Giannis, Jokic hasn’t necessarily justified his inflated price tag with his play this season. He’s averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute, and while that’s an excellent number, it still represents a significant decrease from his mark of 1.83 last season. Jokic’s usage rate has plummeted from 31.9% in 2021-22 to 23.5% this season, which makes sense with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back in the lineup.

However, Jokic is a candidate for some positive regression moving forward. For starters, his usage rate hasn’t been that low in quite some time. Even with better teammates this season, there’s no reason the back-to-back MVP should be that far below his career average of 26.5%. I would expect that figure to rise, and he should also be a bit better from 3-point range after making just 21.1% of his attempts to start the year.

Ultimately, I think it’s worth having some exposure to the big man in this spot. He’s projected for virtually no ownership, and the Nuggets’ implied team total of 123.5 is the top mark on the slate by a wide margin.

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Value

Onyeka Okongwu is down to just $3,700 on DraftKings, which is simply too cheap. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s expected to play around 20 minutes on most nights. Okongwu has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.86 with a comparable salary and minute projection, and he’s already shown a ceiling of over 30 fantasy points this season.

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Fast Break

Nic Claxton has gotten a bit more expensive of late, but he’s justified a more expensive price tag. His minutes have trended upwards, logging at least 31 in two of his past three games, and he’s averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s not going to play less given the team’s current absences, so he’s very fairly priced all things considered.

The only thing stopping Alperen Sengun is consistent playing time. He saw a season-high 33.5 minutes in his last outing, and he responded with 47.6 FanDuel points. He’s averaged 1.25 FanDuel points per minute this season, so he’s going to continue to smash if he sees that much playing time on a regular basis.