NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Nov. 19): Joel Embiid Poised for Massive Role

Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Damian Lillard stands out in a tier of his own at point guard on Saturday. He’s priced well above every other player at the position, especially on DraftKings. His $10,100 salary makes him +$3,100 more expensive than the next most expensive player (Anfernee Simons).

Lillard doesn’t grade out particularly well at his inflated salary on DraftKings, but he’s worth consideration on FanDuel. His $9,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 94%, which is the top mark at the position. Lillard has posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of his past four games, and he’s racked up three straight double-doubles.

Lillard also draws an advantageous matchup vs. the Jazz. Their defense has slipped over their past five games, allowing an average of 116.9 points per 100 possessions, and the Blazers’ implied team total of 115.5 ranks second on the slate.

---

Value

The top implied team total on Saturday belongs to the Pacers, but there’s a good chance they’ll be without their best player. Tyrese Haliburton appeared to suffer an ankle injury on Friday, and while he appeared to avoid a serious injury, the Pacers will likely exercise caution with their young star.

If Haliburton is ruled out, T.J. McConnell would become an excellent option at point guard. He’s currently projected for 28.1 minutes in our NBA Models, and McConnell is an excellent per-minute producer. He’s averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.07 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool). I would consider that a conservative projection, especially against a Magic squad that ranks 22nd in defensive efficiency.

---

Fast Break

Jalen Suggs is coming off back-to-back games with at least 40.25 DraftKings points, and he should continue to provide more value than usual with Paolo Banchero and Cole Anthony out of the lineup. He’s increased his production to 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with both players off the floor, and the Pacers represent a tremendous matchup. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and they rank 25th in defensive efficiency.

Tyrese Maxey is expected to join James Harden on the sidelines for a while, solidifying De’Anthony Melton’s minutes. Melton has always been an excellent per-minute producer, and he’s averaged 0.95 FanDuel points per minute with Harden and Maxey off the floor. He’s underpriced at $5,600 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The top of the shooting guard position is pretty uninspiring on Saturday. Paul George is the most expensive option by a wide margin, but his role takes a major hit with Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup. Anthony Edwards and Simons are next on the pricing spectrum, and neither player grades out particularly well in our NBA Models.

With that in mind, Franz Wagner has a claim to the top spot at the position. Like Suggs, he’s taken on a larger role for the Magic given their current injury situation. He leads the team with a 28.8% usage rate with Banchero and Anthony off the floor, and he also ranks second in assist rate. Wagner managed 37.25 DraftKings points on Friday despite fouling out in 33.1 minutes, and he also attempted just nine shots. He averaged 16.5 shot attempts in his previous four contests, so he has the potential for a better performance in an elite matchup on Saturday.

---

Value

With Maxey sidelined, Shake Milton is a candidate to move into the starting lineup. He filled in for Maxey beautifully in Friday’s win over the Bucks, contributing 28.75 DraftKings points in 31.2 minutes. Milton hasn’t been quite as good on a per-minute basis for most of the year – he’s averaged just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute – but he posted a 23.6% usage rate and a 26.1% assist rate vs. the Bucks. If he continues to see that kind of workload, his production will almost certainly increase. Regardless, he’s a steal at just $3,100.

---

Fast Break

Andrew Nembhard is another player who would benefit if Haliburton is ruled out. He’s started each of the past five games for the Pacers, but he’s played 21.6 minutes or fewer in three straight. He would likely see a bump in playing time if Haliburton is inactive, and he could increase his per-minute effectiveness as well.

Jordan Clarkson is getting a chance to start for the Jazz this season, and he’s made the most of it. He’s averaged 1.00 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s expected to see around 32 minutes on Saturday. That makes him a strong option on FanDuel, where his $5,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 89%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Keldon Johnson has been a solid source of value for the Spurs this season, posting an average Plus/Minus of +2.37 on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute while taking over as the team’s top offensive option. He’s increased his usage rate from 21.3% last season to 27.8%, resulting in a career-best 22.7 points per game.

Johnson might have to do a bit more scoring than usual on Saturday. The Spurs have listed Devin Vassell as questionable, and he’s been the Spurs’ other top scoring threat this season. Johnson increases his usage rate to 31.6% with Vassell off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.19 FanDuel points per minute. That would make him a fantastic option if Vassell is ruled out, particularly on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 89%.

---

Value

Bennedict Mathurin has yet to be truly unleashed by the Pacers, but the rookie is having a phenomenal season. He’s averaging just under 20 points per game, despite coming off the bench in all 14 contests. He’s averaged just 27.8 minutes per game, so he’s been very efficient with his playing time.

The Pacers may have no choice but to unleash Mathurin if Haliburton is sidelined. He’s increased his usage rate to 35.1% with Haliburton off the floor, resulting in an average of 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. Even if he doesn’t move into the starting lineup – I expect McConnell to get that nod – Mathurin would still be worth considering vs. the Magic.

---

Fast Break

You thought we were done with the Pacers? Not even close! Buddy Hield is another excellent option, particularly at just $6,700 on DraftKings. He’s averaged a ridiculous 1.62 DraftKings points per minute with Haliburton off the floor, and while that doesn’t seem sustainable, he should clearly benefit from a usage perspective.

Is Kawhi Leonard playable on FanDuel? His $6,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%, and he’s coming off a season-high 24.5 minutes in his last outing. He could take another small step forward on Saturday, giving Leonard a shot at returning value. Still, his lack of upside makes him a tough player to roster, even though he grades out well in our NBA Models.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Myles Turner has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and he’s been an absolute force when on the floor this season. He’s racked up 1.4 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +10.28 through his first nine games.

The only real issue with Turner has been his ability to stay on the floor. He missed a chunk of the year with an injury, and he’s dealt with foul trouble since returning. He’s played 27 minutes or less in three of his past four games, and while he’s still been able to return value, it has kept him from realizing his full potential. Turner has smashed when he’s seen a full workload – he has 46.5 and 60.9 FanDuel points the last two times he’s played more than 27 minutes – so continue to fire him up with confidence. He’s priced at a point where he can return value in a down game and has plenty of upside if he hits his ceiling.

---

Value

Chuma Okeke has moved into the Magic’s starting lineup recently, and he’s currently projected for more than 32 minutes in our NBA Models. That’s a lot of playing time for someone who costs just $4,900 on FanDuel, and players with comparable salaries and minute projections have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.76.

---

Fast Break

Karl-Anthony Towns has PF eligibility on DraftKings, and his salary has come way down over the past two weeks. He doesn’t have quite as much upside playing alongside Rudy Gobert, but he still owns the top ceiling projection at the position by more than 10 points. There’s plenty of value available on this slate, so paying up for Towns has plenty of merit.

Bol Bol’s breakout season continues for the Magic. He’s racked up at least 30.6 minutes in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 30.25 DraftKings points in each of them. That includes 50 DraftKings points two games ago, so he has upside at $6,200.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

Most of the stud options so far have been pretty uninspiring, but that’s definitely not the case at center. Joel Embiid is one of the best players in the league, and he’s going to have to carry a massive workload for the shorthanded 76ers. He’s increased his usage rate to a ridiculous 47.1% with Maxey and Harden off the floor this season, and there’s a chance that Tobias Harris is sidelined Saturday as well. Overall, Embiid has averaged 1.82 DraftKings points per minute with Maxey and Harden off the floor, giving him easily the highest ceiling on the slate.

However, make sure to keep an eye on Embiid’s status. I imagine he’ll be in the lineup, but it is the second leg of a back-to-back.

---

Value

Kelly Olynyk has not been quite as effective as usual on a per-minute basis this season, but his average of 0.98 DraftKings points per minute is still pretty darn good. He’s projected for more than 29 minutes Saturday vs. the Blazers, and he erupted for 46.75 DraftKings points two games ago. Olynyk is always a threat for a monster performance, and he’s cheaper than usual at just $4,900 on DraftKings.

---

Fast Break

Gobert is down to just $6,600 on DraftKings, which is about as low as we’ve ever seen him. It results in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Gobert should be able to pay off that price tag. He’s still averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he should see plenty of playing time to combat Embiid on the interior.

Jakob Poeltl is questionable for the Spurs, and Charles Bassey would be an interesting value option if he’s ruled out. Bassey has been fantastic when given the chance to play this season, averaging 1.30 FanDuel points per minute.