NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Nov. 12): Go Back to Myles Turner

Saturday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use our FanDuel promo to get three months of free NBA League Pass. 

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Tyrese Haliburton continues to deliver elite production for DFS players. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +7.75 to start the year on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 46.7 FanDuel points in five of his past six games. That said, his price has only increased by +$800 since the start of the year. That makes him too cheap for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Raptors. The Raptors haven’t been nearly as strong defensively this year as they have in the past, ranking just 18th in defensive efficiency. The Pacers’ implied team total of 115.75 ranks third on the slate, and Haliburton owns an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.76 on FanDuel.

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Value

Jalen Green was mired in a bit of a shooting slump recently, but he appears to have snapped out of it. He’s shot 20 for 32 from the field over his past two games, and he’s scored at least 36.5 DraftKings points in both contests. He’s also played at least 37.9 minutes in both outings, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects moving forward. Green has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he should be able to pay off his salary if he continues to play that much.

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Fast Break

Tyrese Maxey has gotten pricy on DraftKings, but he remains a reasonable option at $7,700 on FanDuel. It results in a Bargain Rating of 85%, and Maxey is a prime candidate for some positive regression. He’s shot just 19 for 64 over his past three games (29.7%), but he shot 48.5% from the field last season. He also continues to play upwards of 40 minutes per game, and he’s averaged 1.11 FanDuel points per minute with James Harden off the floor.

Malcolm Brogdon missed the Celtics’ last game, and his status for Saturday is currently unknown. If he’s out again, Marcus Smart could pick up a few additional minutes. He’s currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models, making him a reasonable option at $5,600 on DraftKings. Smart has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.63 with a comparable salary and minute projection (per the Trends tool).

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

The Raptors are coming off a surprising result in their last contest, suffering a 19-point defeat at the hands of the Thunder. Fred VanVleet was limited to just 28.6 minutes in that contest, which had a sizable result on his fantasy performance. He finished with just 26.0 DraftKings points after scoring at least 46.75 DraftKings points in his three previous games.

We can go right back to VanVleet for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Pacers. It’s a phenomenal spot – the Pacers rank second in pace and 29th in defensive efficiency – and VanVleet has increased his production to 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with Pascal Siakam off the floor. He could see upwards of 40 minutes in this spot, and his $8,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%.

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Value

Andrew Nembhard has started to see increased run for the Pacers, logging at least 27.8 minutes in three straight games. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in each, and he’s racked up at least 23.0 DraftKings points in his past two. That makes him a reasonable value option at just $3,900 on DraftKings and that absolute minimum on FanDuel.

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Fast Break

The Celtics have been the best offensive team in basketball this season by a wide margin. They’re averaging 117.8 points per 100 possessions, while no one else is above 113.7. The gap between the Celtics and Nuggets – who rank second in offensive efficiency – is larger than the gap between the Nuggets and Pacers, who rank 13th. They should have no problem scoring the ball against the Pistons on Saturday, who rank dead last in defensive efficiency. That gives Jaylen Brown a nice boost, particularly on FanDuel at just $8,200.

The Hornets are pretty desperate for offense at the moment, which is why Kelly Oubre has attempted at least 19 shots in three straight games. He was red-hot on Thursday, drilling seven 3-pointer vs. the Heat, resulting in 46.4 FanDuel points. There’s no guarantee his shot will fall on Saturday, but he has plenty of upside when it does.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Today’s slate is a little light on star power. Luka Doncic is the headliner, but he’s super expensive at $12,600 on DraftKings. He basically needs to hit his ceiling to justify that price tag, and he’s in a suboptimal spot vs. the Blazers. They rank fifth in defensive efficiency, and that game has the second-lowest total on the slate at 217.0 points.

With that in mind, Jayson Tatum feels like a much more reasonable option at $10,100. His ceiling projection is lower than Luka’s, but not by as much as their current salaries would suggest. He has the clear edge from a matchup perspective vs. the Pistons, and he stands out as the far better option in terms of projected Plus/Minus.

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Value

Cade Cunningham’s status is up in the air for the Pistons. He missed yesterday’s game vs. the Knicks, and his status for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Celtics is currently unknown.

If he’s ruled out, Saddiq Bey will be asked to help pick up the slack on offense. He’s increased his usage rate by +1.2% with Cunningham off the court this season, resulting in an average of 0.86 DraftKings points per minute. Bey is also slightly underpriced on DraftKings to begin with. He’s down to just $5,300, and Bey has historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.13 with a comparable salary and minute projection.

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Fast Break

The Pelicans own the top implied team total of the day in an elite spot vs. the Rockets. They rank seventh in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, so the Pelicans should be able to do significant damage. Brandon Ingram is coming off a terrible showing in his last outing, but he posted a positive Plus/Minus in each of his four previous games. He’s an excellent option at just $8,000 on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 92%.

Like VanVleet, OG Anunoby is an excellent buy-low target after a poor performance in his last game. He’s averaged just under 1.00 DraftKings points per minute this season, and no small forward is projected for more than his 37.95 minutes on Saturday. Anunoby had 52.0 DraftKings points just two games ago, so he’s an excellent bounce-back candidate vs. the Pacers.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Jimmy Butler is coming off a monster performance in his last game, finishing with 63.0 FanDuel points thanks to 35 points, 10 rebounds, eight assists, and two steals. He’s scored at least 47.3 FanDuel points in each of his past two games without Tyler Herro, and he leads the team in both usage and assist rate in those contests.

Herro remains questionable for Saturday’s matchup vs. the Hornets, and Butler would be an elite option if he’s ultimately ruled out. He’s increased his production to 1.42 FanDuel points per minute with Herro off the floor, and no other power forward is close to that level of production this season.

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Value

Usman Garuba has been a steady contributor of late, posting a positive Plus/Minus in six straight games on FanDuel. He’s not playing many minutes, but he makes up for it with strong per-minute production. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute this season, and he racked up 24.1 FanDuel points over 14.1 minutes in his last outing.

Garuba remains priced at the minimum on FanDuel, and he should continue to factor into the rotation with Jae’Sean Tate and Bruno Fernando sidelined. He’s worth some consideration vs. the Pelicans.

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Fast Break

Speaking of the Pelicans, could this be the game where Zion Williamson breaks out? He’s played well recently, but he’s yet to really put it all together for a monster performance. However, he did torch the Pacers for 52.9 FanDuel points three games ago, and the Rockets are a similarly friendly matchup.

It’s tough to parse out the minutes in the Pacers’ frontcourt on a nightly basis, but Isaiah Jackson has played at least 16.5 minutes in three straight games. That’s not enough for most players to be relevant, but Jackson is not most players. He’s averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he’s coming off 33.5 DraftKings points in his last outing. That gives him a high ceiling for his $4,100 price tag.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

It’s going to be very tough to click any name besides Myles Turner at center on Saturday. Turner missed the early part of the year after rolling his ankle during pregame warmups, but he’s returned with a vengeance in recent weeks. He’s averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season, which leads all centers on Saturday’s slate. That includes Joel Embiid, who is nearly +$5,000 more expensive on DraftKings.

Turner finished with 62.5 DraftKings points two games ago, and he scored 40.25 DraftKings points in 25.7 minutes in his last outing. He struggled with foul trouble in that contest – that tends to happen against Nikola Jokic – but that shouldn’t be an issue vs. the Raptors. Turner stands out as arguably the strongest play at any position on Saturday, especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 91%.

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Value

The decision at center is a bit trickier on FanDuel. Alperen Sengun is slightly cheaper than Turner, and he has been nearly as good this season. He’s averaging 1.30 FanDuel points per minute, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven straight games. The Rockets were hesitant about putting him in the starting lineup at the beginning of the year, but he’s started each of the past seven contests. He’s averaged 17.7 points, 9.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.8 blocks + steals during that stretch, so he’s an excellent bet to pay off his current price tag.

Fortunately, Turner has PF eligibility on FanDuel, so you can play both players in the same lineup. Both players are center-only only DraftKings, but the utility spot means you can utilize both players there as well.

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Fast Break

Mason Plumlee is another strong source of value at the position. He’s averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his playing time is on the rise recently. He’s racked up at least 30 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s coming off 38.8 minutes in his last outing. Plumlee finished with 39.25 DraftKings points in that contest, and he’s going to provide massive value if he continues to play more than 30 minutes per game.

Even though Embiid has disappointed to start the year, he still figures to benefit from the absence of Harden. His $10,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 91%, and he shouldn’t command much ownership vs. the Hawks. Overall, it’s a nice opportunity to buy low on one of the most talented big men in the league.