NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Mar. 4): Giannis Antetokounmpo or Joel Embiid?

Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Use our PrizePicks promo code LABS for a $100 sign-up bonus on NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Stud

Saturday doesn’t feel like a slate to pay up for a top point guard. There are a few high-priced options to choose from, but none are really popping in our NBA Models.

However, De’Aaron Fox is worth some consideration on FanDuel. He’s played some of the best basketball of his career recently, averaging 1.40 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s posted a ridiculous +11.02 average Plus/Minus over his past 10 games, and he’s scored at least 52.6 FanDuel points in three straight.

Fox also draws an excellent matchup Saturday vs. the Timberwolves. Minnesota has played at the eighth-fastest pace this season, and this game leads the slate with a 237.5-point total. The Kings’ implied team total of 121.5 ranks first on the slate by three full points.

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Value

The Spurs are going to be looking for some help on offense on Saturday. Devin Vassell has already been ruled out for injury management, while Keldon Johnson is doubtful.

Devonte’ Graham started for the Spurs in their last contest and chipped in 35.0 DraftKings points in 32.2 minutes. He’s not projected for quite as much playing time on Saturday, but Graham has averaged an outstanding 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. In his limited time with the Spurs, he’s also seen a +3.7% usage bump with Johnson and Vassell off the court, resulting in an average of 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He has the potential to provide excellent value against the Rockets, especially given his +5.97 Opponent Plus/Minus.

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Fast Break

There’s a decent chance that the Pistons get blown out by the Cavaliers on Saturday. They’re listed as 15.5-point underdogs, and the team is dealing with tons of injuries. Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart have all been ruled out, leaving the team without a ton of viable options. Killian Hayes should take on a large workload in this spot, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute for the year. He stands out as an excellent target on DraftKings, where his $5,300 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.

Mike Conley doesn’t possess the greatest ceiling at this point, but he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games on FanDuel. He’s worth a look at $5,800 in an up-tempo matchup vs. the Kings.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Stud

Jalen Green hasn’t played a competitive basketball game in nearly a full month. The last time he saw more than 28.7 minutes was all the way back on Feb. 13, which has had a huge impact on his fantasy output. He’s scored 31.75 DraftKings points or fewer in three straight games, despite increasing his production to 1.21 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.

This seems like the perfect spot for Green to bounce back. He’s taking on the Spurs, who rank third in pace and dead last in defensive efficiency. The Spurs are listed as just one-point home favorites, so this game has the potential to be close and high-scoring. If Green can eclipse 30 minutes combined with his elevated per-minute production, he has the potential for a big performance.

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Value

Hamidou Diallo is another excellent per-minute producer. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute for the year, but his playing time has been inconsistent with the team at full strength.

That shouldn’t be an issue on Saturday. Diallo is currently projected for just under 28 minutes in our NBA Models, and that should be more than enough for him to return value. He has historically had a comparable salary and minute projection in 10 previous contests, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.28 (per the Trends tool).

Diallo is a viable target across the industry, but he’s a steal on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,500, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

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Fast Break

Caris LeVert is another prime value target on DraftKings, where his $3,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%. His role on the Cavaliers has decreased as the year has progressed, but he’s still projected for 26 minutes in our NBA Models. He’s averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so that should be enough to return value.

Khris Middleton is still playing limited minutes, but that hasn’t stopped him from putting up strong fantasy numbers of late. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.70 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and he’s scored at least 34.2 FanDuel points in three of his past five games. His average of 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over the past month is the top mark among Saturday’s shooting guards, while his $6,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86%.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Stud

Anthony Edwards stands out as an excellent stud target on FanDuel. He’s been slightly disappointing of late, posting a negative Plus/Minus in eight of his past 11 games, which has caused his price tag to dip to just $8,900. That has been an excellent price range to target Edwards at this season. He’s owned a comparable salary in 41 games in 2022-23, and he’s averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.63 in those contests.

Edwards also leads the SF position with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel, and his price tag results in a Bargain Rating of 95%. Add in a juicy matchup vs. the Kings, and there’s plenty to like with Edwards on Saturday.

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Value

The Rockets have started to unleash Tari Eason, and it has been a beautiful sight to see. Eason has been a fantastic per-minute producer in his rookie season, averaging 1.05 DraftKings points per minute. His minutes were limited early in the year, but he’s racked up at least 25.1 minutes in three straight games. Part of that was due to each of those contests being a blowout, but Eason took full advantage, scoring at least 37.0 DraftKings points in two of them.

Eason is currently projected for just over 24 minutes vs. the Spurs, and he provides a nice combination of floor and ceiling with that much expected playing time. He’s a steal at $4,300 on DraftKings.

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Fast Break

Jeremy Sochan has really started to spread his wings for the Spurs. He started the year as a low-usage player, but he has taken on a much larger offensive role of late. He posted a usage rate of 34.9% in the team’s last contest, and he finished with 47.1 FanDuel points on 22 points and 13 rebounds. Overall, he’s increased his production to 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he should be aggressive again on Saturday given the team’s current injury situation.

Jimmy Butler has put together some strong performances of late, scoring at least 56.1 FanDuel points in two of his past three games. He’s increased his production to 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which trails only Giannis Antetokounmpo among SF-eligible players on Saturday’s slate. His ownership should be reasonable against the Hawks, making him an interesting target for GPPs.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Stud

Speaking of Giannis, he headlines the power forward position on Saturday. Giannis hasn’t been at his best recently, but the Bucks haven’t asked very much of him. He’s played just 27.7 and 28.5 minutes in his two games since returning from injury, with the Bucks winning both of those contests in comfortable fashion.

Giannis will likely have to do a bit more Saturday vs. the 76ers. The Bucks are listed as just five-point home favorites, so they’re going to be tested as they look to keep their 16-game winning streak alive. No one on this slate can match Giannis on a per-minute basis, so this could be the perfect opportunity to buy low on him. His DraftKings salary is expensive, but his $11,600 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The 76ers are a tough matchup, but Giannis is capable of going off against anyone.

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Value

While most rookies are typically slowing down at this point in the year, Keegan Murray seems to be getting better. He’s increased his production to 0.85 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games. He’s scored at least 36.5 DraftKings points in two of those contests, even though he isn’t one of the Kings’ primary offensive options on most nights.

Murray stands out as one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where his $4,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99%.

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Fast Break

Evan Mobley has slowly ramped up his production this season, and he’s averaged 1.10 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. There’s no guarantee he sees a full workload vs. the Pistons, but he should feast on their undermanned frontcourt when he’s on the floor. Detroit already struggles against opposing big men, allowing the third-most points in the paint per game, and things don’t figure to get any better with Stewart and Duren out of the lineup.

Kyle Anderson has been a very reliable option for fantasy players ever since Karl-Anthony Towns went down with an injury. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past seven contests on FanDuel, and he just narrowly missed that feat Friday vs. the Lakers. Still, he played more than 35 minutes in that contest, which is a good sign for his fantasy prospects moving forward. Anderson has averaged an outstanding 1.08 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so there should be better games in the future if he continues to play that much.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Stud

While Giannis stands out as the clear top pay-up option on FanDuel, it’s not so cut and dry on DraftKings. Joel Embiid is significantly cheaper, and he’s capable of providing just as much upside. His ceiling projection is roughly two points lower than Giannis’, so that makes him the better choice from a pure value perspective.

That said, the Bucks are about as tough as it gets from a matchup standpoint. They rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, and they’ve been even better during their current win streak. The Bucks have done a good job in their two previous meetings vs. Embiid, limiting his to just 23.5 points, 11.5 boards, and 5.5 assists per game.

I still lean towards Embiid if choosing between him and Giannis on DraftKings, but you aren’t obligated to play either on this slate.

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Value

James Wiseman is looking to salvage his career in Detroit, and he’ll get another nice opportunity on Saturday. The Cavs are an absolutely brutal matchup for big men, but Wiseman has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s coming off more than 29 minutes in his last contest, and that’s a nice combination. He’s underpriced at $4,900 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95%.

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Fast Break

Domantas Sabonis enters the stud conversation on FanDuel, where his $9,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 95%. He’s averaged 1.32 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in six of his past eight games. That includes at least 48.5 FanDuel points in two straight.

Clint Capela remains priced at a massive discount on DraftKings. He’s coming off back-to-back games with at least 35.5 DraftKings points, and he’s increased his production to 1.23 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. He has the chance for another big outing vs. the Spurs, who have been one of the best matchups for centers this season.