NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Saturday, Jan. 7): Plenty of Options in Lakers-Kings

Saturday features a four-game main slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and metrics.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. 

Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock. Use the PrizePicks promo code LABS to get a $100 sign-up bonus for NBA player props.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

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Saturday’s slate is on the smaller side, and the Kings stand out as the clear top team to target. They’re currently implied for 125.25 points against the Lakers, which is the top mark on the slate by more than five points. The Lakers rank fourth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency, so they’ve been one of the best matchups in fantasy this season.

De’Aaron Fox stands out as one of the Kings’ best targets. He’s been a solid source of value recently, scoring at least 42.25 DraftKings points in four of his past five games, and he’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season. He’s a particularly nice option on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%.

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Value

The Bulls are on the second leg of a back-to-back, so we’re still waiting on their official injury report. However, there’s a chance that they’re without Alex Caruso once again. That would solidify the minutes for Ayo Dosunmu. He’s racked up at least 24.4 minutes in four straight games, and he’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in three of them. That includes two contests with at least 32.75 DraftKings points.

Despite his solid production, Dosunmu’s salary remains extremely affordable on DraftKings. He’s priced at just $4,100, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 98%, and Dosunmu is projected for another 32 minutes in our NBA Models. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.43 (per the Trends tool).

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Jose Alvarado is another nice source of value. The Pelicans are playing without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson, which has allowed Alvarado to pick up a few additional minutes. He’s coming off more than 32 minutes on Friday, and he responded with 26.25 DraftKings points. You’ll take that kind of production at $3,900.

Luka Doncic finally came back to reality in his last game, finishing with just 34.3 FanDuel points vs. the Celtics. However, Luka was clearly not himself last game, as he appeared to be battling some sort of illness that left him coughing and struggling to catch his breath. Doncic had scored at least 59.3 FanDuel points in each of his previous six games, and he leads the position with 12 Pro Trends. He’s a nice bounce-back target and could command lower ownership than usual.

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

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The game between the Jazz and Bulls stands out as another outstanding target on Saturday’s slate. The 239.0-point total is just slightly lower than the total in Lakers-Kings, but the 1.5-point spread suggests a more competitive contest.

Zach LaVine has had a slow start to the year, but he has turned in some strong performances of late. He has two outings with at least 60.25 DraftKings points in his past five games, so he’s displayed a massive ceiling for his $7,300 price tag.

The matchup vs. the Jazz also plays into his skill set. He’s the Bulls’ top 3-point shooter, leading the team in 3-pointers made and attempted per game. The Jazz have allowed 14.7 made 3-pointers over their past 15 games, which is the second-highest mark in the league over that time frame.

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Value

Reggie Bullock has transformed into the 2023 version of Tony Snell. Finding the court is not an issue – he’s projected for just under 36 minutes on Saturday – but he is arguably the worst per-minute producer in all of basketball. He’s averaged a mind-boggling 0.46 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he struggles to impact the game in every area. His usage rate, assist rate, and rebound rate are all at 9.1% or lower, so he’s one of the most low-impact players in the league.

Still, it’s hard to pass up 36 projected minutes at a $3,500 salary. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have averaged a Plus/Minus of +6.05 DraftKings points per minute. Even guys with a per-minute output of fewer than 0.60 DraftKings points per minute have averaged a Plus/Minus of +4.08 in that split.

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Spencer Dinwiddie is another potential option for the Mavericks. He’s priced at $6,100 on FanDuel, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 87%, and he’s playing all the minutes he can handle. He played more than 40 minutes Thursday vs. the Celtics, and he’s averaged 0.89 FanDuel points per minute this season.

C.J. McCollum continues to deliver with Williamson and Ingram sidelined. He’s scored at least 41.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 41.86 FanDuel points in seven games without both players this season.

NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

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LeBron James wasn’t really needed on Friday, with the team rolling to a comfortable 16-point win over the Hawks. He still finished with 48.25 DraftKings points, but he was limited to just 32.8 minutes after logging at least 39.5 minutes in his previous two games.

LeBron continues to dazzle in his 20th NBA season. He now needs just 460 points to pass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar as the league’s all-time leading scorer, and at his current pace, he’ll only need another 15 games or so. He’s scored at least 25 points in 12 straight games, and he’s averaged 33.7 points per game over that time frame.

James is going to have to continue to put forth a herculean effort for as long as Anthony Davis is sidelined. He’s increased his usage, assist, and rebound rates with Davis off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 1.50 DraftKings points per minute. There’s a chance that he sits on the second leg of a back-to-back, but as long as LeBron is active, he’s an excellent pay-up option at $10,700 on DraftKings.

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Value

Patrick Williams is another strong value target for the Bulls, particularly at just $4,200 on DraftKings. His price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%, and Williams is coming off 29.0 DraftKings points over 35.1 minutes on Friday. He’s now posted a positive Plus/Minus in three straight games, and he’s projected for another 32.3 minutes in our NBA Models.

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DeMar DeRozan stands out on FanDuel, where his $8,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 87%. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +8.20 over his past 10 games on FanDuel, and while he’s cooled off a bit of late, he still leads all players with 13 Pro Trends on this slate.

Naji Marshall was extremely effective for the Pelicans in his last outing, racking up 41.3 FanDuel points in 33.3 minutes. I wouldn’t expect a repeat performance on Saturday, but he’s clearly capable of paying off his current price tag. Marshall has played at least 28 minutes in 28 minutes in 27 career games, and he’s averaged 30.44 FanDuel points in those contests.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

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Domantas Sabonis has dual PF/C eligibility on FanDuel, which is where he’s most valuable on this slate. His $10,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 81%, and he leads all power forwards with 11 Pro Trends.

Sabonis has played insanely well of late. He’s increased his production to 1.38 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, and he’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.02 over his past 10 games. He’s capable of dominating in every phase of the game, and he posted 20 points, 14 boards, and eight assists in his last contest.

The Lakers are a prime spot for a Sabonis eruption. They have struggled mightily with opposing big men this season, giving Sabonis an unreal +12.28 Opponent Plus/Minus.

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Value

If you’re looking to go cheaper with the Kings, Harrison Barnes fits the bill. Playing Barnes in DFS is never particularly exciting, but he’s displayed a bit more ceiling of late. He’s gone for at least 30.3 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, and he’s played at least 36.9 minutes in both contests. Barnes has averaged 0.78 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, so he’s too cheap at $5,500 if he’s going to continue to play that much.

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Let’s keep things rolling with Sacramento. Keegan Murray fits a very similar profile as Barnes, with both players averaging between 0.74 and 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season. Barnes is getting more playing time at the moment, but Murray is still projected for a respectable 28.1 minutes on Saturday’s slate. He’s also significantly cheaper than Barnes on DraftKings, where his $4,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 96%.

Draymond Green posted a negative Plus/Minus in his last contest, but he had returned positive value in each of his five previous games. He’s not quite the same fantasy producer that he was in his prime, but he’s still capable of racking up peripheral stats with the best of them. If he can get to double-digit points – which is never a guarantee with Draymond – a triple-double is not out of the question vs. the Magic.

NBA DFS Center Picks

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Speaking of triple-doubles, Nikola Vucevic had his first triple-double of the year Friday vs. the 76ers. He racked up 19 points, 18 boards, and 10 assists, resulting in 65.5 DraftKings points. That’s definitely towards the top of his range of outcomes, but Vucevic has been an excellent fantasy producer of late. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in nine of his past 11 games, yet his salary has barely budged over that time frame. He remains extremely affordable at $7,300 on DraftKings, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 85%.

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Value

What does Thomas Bryant have to do to get a price bump for the Lakers? He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in four straight games, and he’s scored at least 40.75 DraftKings points in three of them. However, his price has only increased by +$100 over that time frame. We can definitely keep riding him at $6,100, especially in a strong spot vs. the Kings.

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Kevon Looney has had to pick up some extra responsibilities for the Warriors of late, and he’s increased his production to 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month. The team will get a bit healthier on Saturday, with Andrew Wiggins expected to return to the lineup, but that shouldn’t have a huge impact on Looney’s role.

Bol Bol remains sidelined for the Magic, which should give Wendell Carter Jr. a few extra minutes. He’s played at least 30 minutes in back-to-back games, and he’s averaged 1.01 FanDuel points per minute this season. That’s enough to keep him in the conversation at $6,600.